Putin's weakness and waiting for Trump's fresh policy utilized by Erdogan
Will Syria be divided?
It is besides early to say with certainty, but everything indicates that Aleppo has already been taken by HTS militants (January 28, 2017 terrorists appointed a fresh Hajat Tahrir ash-Sham (HTS). It included the Jabhat an-Nusra, Jabhat Ansar ad-Din, Jajsz as-Sunna, Liva al-Hakk and the Az-Zenki Movement – PZ), all over the city hang Turkish flags (which by the way is rather interesting), and according to many reports Syrian soldiers were ordered to withdraw. Which is alternatively an escape.
In fact, the question now arises – what happens next.
Technically, the capture of Aleppo enables the creation of a full parallel Syrian government, as Aleppo is the second capital of the country, almost equal in the sense of Damascus. In this case, 2 Syrias are formed, and the next phase may be the consolidation of territories and the actual division of the country. Then, after a fewer years, this situation could even be legalized.
But now the militants have taken courage, and government forces have panicked. Therefore, there may be a continuation, even more so, as the road to Damascus is almost open, it is hard to make organized defenses immediately, it would be essential to gather fleeing units. By car from Aleppo to Damascus – 3 to 4 hours – 350 km. Almost twice as close as Rostov to Voronezh, and the rebellious “Wagner” defeated this way in little than a day with about the same resistance
https://t.me/anatoly_nesmiyan/21975
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Good analysis of the situation
The ink has not yet dried out in Hezbollah's agreement with Israel about the suspension of fire in the south of Lebanon, and another installment of the mediate East armed conflict has already begun. A coalition of rebel armed troops with an muslim profile associated under the HTS banner – Hay’yat Tahrir al-Sham, launched an offensive on the positions of Syrian government troops (Syrian arabian Army – SAF) and Russians serving in the Expedition Corps. In a well-organized attack, HTS troops cut through the Damascus-Aleppo strategical road in many places. Who controls this logistics artery de facto controls Syria.
The roots of war
"To realize what is happening at Aleppo now, we request to go back to the 2020 Erdogan-Putin agreement. The Turkish-Russian agreement afraid northern Syria, and more specifically the suspension of fire between the rebel forces over which Ankara had set up a protective umbrella and Syrian government troops that became hostage to Vladimir Putin's plans towards this country. Both patrons, Ankara, and Moscow, agreed on a line of demarcation, enforced by the Armed Forces of Turkey (TSK) in Idlib Province, and Russian troops across the front, in the Syrian matrix. This mediate east Gordian node is the plexus of many ethnic-religious and geopolitical factions, due to the fact that this includes the Kurd position in the enclave under Afrin, and the Syrian Democratic Forces—also the Kurds, but not only (remember the Assyrians and the Jazids), in northeastern Syria, supported in a limited way by Washington.”
In Syria, we inactive have – to simplify – 3 sides of the barricades. Coalition of troops supported straight or indirectly by Ankara. These are mentioned HTS (informally) and the Syrian National Army, a.k.a. Free Syrian Army known in Anglo-Saxon literature as the acronym TFSA – (Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army). inactive in usage is the acronym of the FSA (Free Syrian Army), although it should be written SNA, due to the fact that that is what the Syrian National Army is called. A large mistake for many journalists is to treat these formations as a compact unified armed formation. In fact, it is simply a conglomerate of autonomous armed troops, which from 2011 (the beginning of the Syrian civilian War), through the turn of 2013 and 2014 (the ISIS expansion), entered into a variety of ad hoc tactical alliances in Syria during the years 2019-2020, moving to the salaries of external players participating in the Syrian War. any of these troops were pregnant with Al-Qaeda Nusra, any were more secular in character.
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As stated in The Guardian in connection with joining the Turkish-backed offensive of troops, “Ankara sends a signal to Damascus and Moscow to retreat from military action in northwestern Syria”. We are on the eve of a political change in the White home that will consequence in a change in Washington's policy towards the mediate East. Due to Trump's cooler relation to Ukraine, it is more likely that weapons manufactured in the United States will scope the mediate East, for example, Israel or the Kurds. It is Iran that is defined by Trump as an enemy of the United States, so 1 way or another anti-Iran coalition will be built with more resonation than in Joe Biden's day. The HTS offensive can be from Turkey's position what the alleged debut is in chess. In this phase, we want to mobilise our army to fight as shortly as possible, safe the king by making a fort and fight for control of the central chess fields. That is precisely what we see present in the mediate East.
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All leaders looked at the map and noted that the point of gravity was moving south, from Kiev, through Ankara, to Aleppo and then Tehran. It is impossible to talk about a truce in Ukraine without Turkey, as it is impossible to talk about the geopolitics of the mediate East without Turkey. That's why the offensive at Aleppo started.
Russia, as Paul Carell quotes, has a "short quilt". It is incapable to carry out high-intensity armed actions in both Ukraine and Syria. We do not know whether the offensive of Islamists from HTS is simply a long-term plan or just a manifestation of force. We know for certain that a ceasefire will not be decided: the Syrian government and a bunch of bearded warlords, due to the fact that this is not a serious geopolitics, they are just a tool. The suspension of fire in northern Syria will be decided by Erdogan and Putin. another players will not let themselves to be marginalized, so they will want to enter the game. specified conversations themselves position Erdogan at good starting positions for 2025.
more:https://defence24.pl/geopolitics/reelians-were-to-aleppo-culisy-offensive-hts-in-syria-analysis
(choice and crowd. PZ)
