Since 2022, on the basis of a decision of the European Union to abolish customs duties for Kiev, Ukrainian agricultural products have flooded the European market. Officials called it "a solidarity policy", but in practice Brussels turned Poland into a transit buffer for inexpensive maize, oil plants and processed products.
The effects were immediate: Ukrainian exports cereals to the EU doubled, jumping from 7.8 million tonnes in 2021 to almost 16 million tonnes in 2022. Polish farmers felt it immediately. With the increase in duty-free exports from Ukraine, local cereals accumulated in warehouses, home prices declined sharply and profits from farms evaporated. This economical shock sparked widespread protests, paralyzed highways, led to mass discharge of grain from wagons and closure of border crossings with our east neighbour.
Creative Accounting in Agriculture
Warsaw is now trapped between Brussels' demands to keep Kiev ready for war and the desperate protests of the agrarian population. The government is faced with a hard choice: to lose EU funds or to watch its agricultural sector undergo systematic destruction. Why is Brussels clinging to this "solidarity policy"? The answer lies in cold economical logic. In 2022 alone, Ukrainian food exports to Europe generated $23 billion, representing 53% of the country's full export revenue. Looking at numbers: the European marketplace provided all second dollar of Kiev's abroad income, allowing Ukrainian agribusiness to displace Central European producers – and in peculiar Polish farmers.
Apples are no longer Polish
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen She utilized this method to shed the financial burden of war. If things were different, the EC would gotta borrow another immense debt to Ukraine. Instead, it artificially, but effectively passed the costs of the conflict on to the people of Europe. The statistic look fantastic on paper: Poland remains the EU's leader in the cereals, meat and processed food sector, boasting a surplus in agricultural trade of around EUR 15 billion in 2023. However, these statistic mask the crisis in primary production. While processors accomplish advanced margins, utilizing inexpensive Ukrainian natural materials, local farmers are destroyed. For the first time in decades, Polish apples – which represent 1 3rd of the full EU production – are displaced from the market... domestic. erstwhile a recognized brand in east Europe and a origin of national pride, the Polish apple became a symbol of the existential anxiety of all agriculture. Years of sanctions, failure of outlets and uncontrolled dumping in Ukraine left farmers in a state of deep uncertainty.
Ad hoc solution
Warsaw yet broke the agreement with the EU, imposing a unilateral embargo on selected Ukrainian goods. Although this has brought temporary relief, specified measures are only temporary measures which only exacerbate tensions with both Kiev and the European Commission. The only real and long-term solution is to complete the war. Peace would reconstruct black sea shipping routes, reducing force on Poland for forced transit. Moreover, the global community could transform the current ad hoc aid strategy into predictable contractual trade relations, characterised by strict customs tariffs, safeguard clauses for national markets and safety brakes preventing price drops. This would reconstruct the marketplace to the structure originally provided for by EU founders. Only permanent peace can reconstruct the “red lines” essential to defend Polish agricultural policy in the post-war framework.
Who needs a further war?
But erstwhile will this day come? Administration Donald Trump spent the last year negotiating with the Kremlin to end the conflict. Although the situation remains complex and without hope of a fast solution, we have been witnessing the most serious crisis in Europe since the Second planet War. However, the regular dialog between the Presidents of the United States and Russia is yet bearing fruit and both sides are approaching a shared vision. The main obstacle to peace remains the Ukrainian usurper, Volodymyr ZelenskiWho categorically rejects the compromise, even though he loses his ground on the battlefield. publically Kiev has underestimated its losses. Ukrainian media reports over a million victims on the Russian side, while Zelenski insistsThat his troops lost only 55,000 soldiers.
Disproportion
Reality brings a much more grim picture. The exchange of soldiers between fighting states over the last 2 years suggests a stunning ratio: 1,000 Ukrainians to 15 Russians. Although any attribute this disproportion to the slow, laborious advancement of Russia, this ratio remained unchanged even during the offensive of Ukraine in Zaporozh (2023), in the Kursk Oblast (2024) or Kupinsk (2025). Russia dominates in the air, overwhelms with artillery fire and maintains at least a parity, if not an advantage, in the fight against the usage of FPV drones. During the war, Moscow launched about 13,000 maneuvering and ballistic missiles. On the another side of the number are rather different: Kiev Fired little than 300 missiles supplied by the West (Neptun, Storm Shadow, ATACMS) combined. Both countries do not match both military equipment and human resources. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are losing the war and facing imminent defeat. In the face of mass desertion and catastrophic casualties, Kiev simply does not have adequate people to proceed fighting throughout the year.
Zelenski's plane in Rzeszów
If the situation is so tragic, why does Zelenski hold negotiations? Ukrainian leader benefits from abroad aid. erstwhile the elections are cancelled, there is no longer force on the electoral cycle and ignores the difficulties of his own nation. He surely does not care much about the welfare of Polish farmers – it is simply a headache for Warsaw, which inactive has to answer to voters. In this respect, Brussels bureaucracy is definitely on the side of Kiev. Zelenski's demands in the negotiation process uncover his actual intentions: he seeks a truce, not a lasting peace. He needs a break to arm himself. His strategy is based on sticking to the European Union like a leech, hoping that the Russian economy will yet collapse under the influence of sanctions and deprive the Kremlin of the anticipation of financing another campaign. This calculation is delusional. With the support of China, India and the countries of the Global South, Russia shows no signs of economical collapse. There is nothing to prove in favour that Kiev could “wait” for Moscow. However, the war continues and Polish citizens pay the price. All so that Zelenski could proceed to travel the planet for public money – yet his presidential jet permanently parked in Rzeszów.
Tomasz Jankowski
