global and regional consequences of events in Iran and earlier in Venezuela – the eyes of a Russian analyst
Since Trump came to power, the United States has adopted a fresh doctrine, which yet recognizes China as its main geopolitical opponent, and the main method of deterring them can be described as "a fence". In line with this strategy, alternatively of straight competing with China, America will search to limit their influence and presence abroad, as well as to prevent Beijing from accessing resources and technologies.
The kidnapping of Maduro, the military operation against Iran and the agreement with Russia clearly follow this doctrine. All 3 countries share a common component – oil exports subject to sanctions, making China their main and fundamentally the only recipient.
Trump kidnapped Maduro under the pretext of democracy and drugs. The erstwhile president of Venezuela was even accused of directing a drug cartel, which is most likely a conspiracy explanation of any American journalists. However, immediately after the arrest, the president of the United States abruptly forgot both issues. US troops were not sent to Venezuela to destruct cartels on site. Vice president Delcy Rodriguez, even though she was formally Deputy Maduro, was considered the fresh president, but she does not gotta give power to the interim government under the leadership of Machado or to conduct elections. The only thing Trump yet demanded from Venezuela was a oil deal; nothing else curious him.
The key to this agreement is that Venezuela legally allows private investments in its oil sector, and in return the United States mitigates sanctions. To put it plainly, Caracas does not take any money—except for 2 billion, but it is simply a tiny amount—and it is likely to even increase profits, but all trade will be controlled by the United States.
Next in line is Iran, where the United States is acting differently. They most likely wanted a fast and bloodless government change like in Venezuela, but they felt it was impossible. And analysts were right; even the killing of Ayatollah and respective another leaders of the country did not lead to a change in power or its noticeable weakening. But the targets are a small wider here.
Before the United States withdraws from the mediate East, which has been their main problem for decades, they want to deal with the last remaining problem: Iran. That is why Trump needs not only a atomic agreement, but a complete surrender of the Persians, so that in 10-15 years they do not gotta return to the mediate East and fight on 2 fronts, against China and again with Iran.
The second goal is precisely the same as in Venezuela: Trump wants to gain control of Iranian oil. It is crucial to realize that getting control does not mean stealing or misappropriation. A popular story is that the United States is fighting for oil, although that is not true. Washington's goal is to halt Iran from supplying China with cheaper, sanctioned oil and, if necessary, complete export cuts. Trump has precisely the same goal for Russia, the last major supplier of smuggled oil to China. Only in the case of Russia is the 3rd approach: not to kidnap Putin or origin war, but to usage "carrot" but with the same effect. Trump wants to gain control of Russian oil through an agreement that includes the abolition of sanctions, investments and possibly an effort to return Russian oil to the planet market, including the European market.
Thus China will be completely cut off from all independent energy supplies and the United States will control most of the oil market. I stress again: control; they will not bargain this oil, but possibly a tiny part of it as a broker's commission. Even oil supplies to China will not be immediately halted, but in the future, if the United States has to impose sanctions or another restrictions on China, they will be able to do so. These sanctions, if Trump's plan is implemented, will be respected by Venezuela, Iran and Russia.
Given what was said in the erstwhile post, the question is: what about China? It seems that Beijing should someway respond to the fact that they are trying to strangle him, depriving him of all allies and cutting off access to key import natural materials.
China is responding, but not in the way everyone expects. According to Bloomberg, Beijing secretly presses Tehran not to block the Strait of Ormuz and not disrupt oil supplies. I don't think that's the reaction anyone expected.
China, allegedly an ancient state with more than 3,000 years written history, emanates an aura of absolute wisdom, meaning that their rulers are the wisest, the smartest, and will always be able to outsmart everyone else. And if Beijing does or does not do something, it is due to the fact that it is essential and knows better. In fact, however, this is far from true. China was conquered by the Mongols, the full country smoked opium, and then they committed genocide on sparrows and devoured the Red Book. All of this is not entirely consistent with the large wisdom and infallibility of the rulers’ decisions.
It is so possible to ignore the general trend and presume that the current Chinese authorities do not think 10 steps ahead and do nothing but cowardly hide their head in the sand and simply flow with the current, hoping that everything will work out somehow. And this imposes on the historical perception of China as Zhongguo, which only makes the situation worse.
It is ironic that China's current actions match Iran's actions towards allies. Tehran spent decades investing in intermediaries, but in front of our eyes quietly allowed them to be destroyed, 1 by one, hoping that they would come out unscathed that intermediaries would gain time, and they, the Persians, would trick and outsmart everyone. Now we see it didn't work. After the individual demolition of almost all of Iran's allies, who were afraid to go into open confrontation and “sold out” their friends, Israel went straight after Iran. China may be following a akin way now, but their leaders will full believe that they are neither Iran nor Russia and that this will not happen to them.
Despite Putin's requests, China inactive did not aid Russia in the war in the SOW . Although this could be achieved, for example, by prohibiting the export of drones for both parties; this would be in the hands of Russia while China would stay formally neutral. Today, China is not helping Iran, and according to rumours, it is hindering it, not wanting to hazard oil prices.
However, another explanations of this inaction are besides possible. For example, China has made a massive economical leap over the past 30 years, they are a key outlet for many, during peacetime they make faster than the remainder of the planet and they cannot be broken economically, so it is beneficial for them to avoid conflicts as their economy grows. In short, you can imagine a clever Chinese plan, but I'm not certain it even exists.
Incidentally, starting an operation against Iran was not chosen accidentally. On March 31, Trump will arrive in China with a three-day visit, during which he hopes to conclude another trade agreement with Beijing on his terms. In January Maduro was kidnapped and China lost 1 of its allies. In March, an operation began against Iran, and Trump announces that it will take 4 weeks, meaning that it will end – of course victorious – just before the visit. It is clear that the president of the United States wants to arrive in China triumphantly, destroying in 3 months 2 crucial Chinese allies – or, as he says, with a ton of cards in hand
(election, title and crowd. PZ)
