Jęczniak: Siberian gas increasingly Chinese

During president Putin's September visit to China, a political decision was made and the leaders of the 3 countries afraid – Russia, China and Mongolia – publically reported it.

It was decided to build a gas pipeline connecting these countries. This is simply a breakthrough in the "Syberic Power 2" task negotiated for many years. The trade side is inactive underdeveloped, it is in force as a "legally binding memorandum", but the construction of the pipeline is already underway.

Today, more natural gas flows from Russia to China than to Europe. By the Siberia 1 pipeline, over 3,000 kilometres long, 38 billion cubic metres of gas reaches northeastern China. However, shortly this fast-growing mill of the planet (and thus consuming more and more energy) can take over completely the volumes that Europe has given up.

Brussels, despite the strong opposition of many countries, has effectively cut off the Old Continent from the energy resources of the large Earth. This year Russian gas supplies to Europe only proceed thanks to the Turkish Stream. But Brussels continues to clear the marketplace from Russian gas, as Ursula von der Leyen promised it to Donald Trump during the audience (https://myślpolska.info/2025/08/15/america-europa-15-0/), granted to her on the private golf course of the American tycoon. Not much has been left – this year the share of Russian gas fell below 10% of full imports and it will be only 25 billion m3. Last year imports amounted to 52 billion, and even then it was more than Russian deliveries to the mediate State. However, in the frenzy of de-rusification, the Union is condemning its economy to costly energy resources, while at the same time giving rich Siberian deposits to its largest competitor, China.

However, during the September visit not only was the decision to build the pipeline by Mongolia. It was besides agreed to increase the supply of 6 billion m3 of gas per year by the already operating gas pipeline. Earlier, 3 weeks before the outbreak of the Ukrainian War, Russia and China concluded a contract for the supply of another 10 billion m3 of gas annually from Sakhalina. This is called the “Syberic Power 3”. This contract was besides increased to 12 billion m3 today. In conclusion, the export increase of 18 billion m3 was contracted, i.e. in full (maybe already next year) it will be 56 billion m3. And if 50 billion m3 of the "Syberian Power 2" launch blocks are reached, Russian land deliveries to China will exceed 100 billion as of 2030. That's two-thirds of fresh deliveries to Europe.

For Russia the breakthrough effect of the fresh pipeline will besides be the fact that the gas from the Jamal Peninsula, which has been reserved for Europe so far, will scope China. The vast resources there were reserved exclusively for the western direction. Now there is an infrastructure that will lead them south – to the developing (and needy) regions of Siberia and further to Mongolia and China.

Siberian gas begins to feed a marketplace that grows like yeast erstwhile Europe shrinks. Since 2008, EU gas consumption has decreased by 23%, or almost 100 billion m3 (five times Polish consumption). At the same time, China 5 times increased its gas needs, utilizing 350 billion m3 of gas more than 15 years earlier. This is more than present consumes the full Union!!!

Yet, the expanding gas consumption from Russia has been building European relations for more than half a century. Only a decade can be said with China, as the first contract was signed in 2014, and gas has been flowing since the end of 2019. So the Chinese are going much faster than we were before. And rising geopolitical tensions will only make supply by land pipelines more attractive.

Indeed, the Chinese pay cheaper for gas than Europe and Russia lost the most costly gas-paying marketplace in the world. But you truly request to be unaware of your own interests, to point at Russia, alternatively of reasoning that something here, with us, I repeat – with us, something is not right. If, for purely geopolitical reasons, Europe is much more costly to pay for this natural material, then there is something not right.

If you quit the largest deposits and the cheapest supplies of energy resources, you lose your own industry, condemning it to advanced energy prices, and destroying the competitiveness of your own economy... At the same time, you give these natural materials to the biggest competitor who cuts you out of markets all over the world... I think you made a mistake somewhere, Brussels... Or maybe, like all madness utilized to justify the fight against climate change, the indisputable argument now is the fight against Russia?

Andrzej Szczęsniak

Think Poland, No. 43-44 (26.10-2.11.2025)