On Sunday, 28 September, we are facing parliamentary elections in Moldova. As usual, they are preceded by months of Russian provocations and disinformation campaigns. This tiny and divided country has long served as a investigating laboratory for methods that can then be utilized in another countries.
Why is Moldova so susceptible to Russian influence?
Moldova is tiny (Mazovia size), mediocre (lowest GDP in Europe) and not very populated (about 3 million inhabitants, including many refugees from Ukraine). Most of the population are those declaring themselves to be Moldovan or Romanian, but there are besides crucial minorities: Russian, Gagaus, Ukrainian or Bulgarian. Part of the population is inhabited by separatist Transnistria (in which the Russian army is stationed) and semi-tonomial, powerfully pro-Russian Gagauzia. Russian language remains the first language from a twelve to even twenty-seven percent of the population, making it easier to penetrate pro-Russian narratives to a wide scope of audiences.
Another origin is energy dependence. Over the years, Transnistria was getting free gas from Russia, and its power plants produced electricity from it, resold to Moldova. The failure of this stock – due to the cessation of Russian gas transmission by Ukraine in 2025 – led to problems in Moldova itself and the actual crisis in Transnistria. Although fresh connections with Romania have partially reduced this dependency, issues of licenses, contracts and pressures of Gazprom inactive make energy a viable tool of political pressure.
Moldova is besides divided, almost equally in half, erstwhile it comes to relations with Europe and Russia. The erstwhile presidential election, pro-European Maia Sandu, the founder of the ruling PAS organization won with the consequence of 55.4 to 44.6, which he obtained recognized as pro-Russian Alexandr Stoianoglo. However, most importantly, Sandu won mainly with the voices of a many diaspora that supported her in more than 80 percent. If only the votes were counted inside the country, Stoianoglo would win with a score of 51 percent.
How does Russia influence the Moldovan elections?
Russia has been applying to Moldova for decades a full scope of tools of force and impact — from economical sanctions and commercial bans, through political patronage support, to information and cyber operations. Already in the 2000s. Moscow introduced an embargo (e.g. on Moldovan wines), which destroyed its export sector. The energy dependency over the years was the reason why the Chisinau tolerated Russia's claims about Moldova's debt to Gazprom. Its origin was to be the arbitrary charge for ‘free’ gas supplied to Transnistria.
In the political sphere, the Kremlin is accused of backing pro-Russian groups, buying votes and politicians. In the last decade, pro-Russian forces have brought the people of Transnistrians to the polling stations in Moldova, urging a certain way to vote. Prior to the 2024 presidential election, Moldovan services spoke of hundreds of thousands of votes bought, and journalists described extended networks of recruiting voters primarily in agrarian areas.
I reported those elections from Chisinau and Tyraspol. It was an incredible show of Russian hybrid skills. The saboteurs trained by Wagner's group were to enter Moldova, bots operated on social platforms, false bomb alarms were besides announced. The ministries received false e-mails from European institutions that allegedly had them hang rainbow flags, government buildings were covered with paint or devastated by unknown perpetrators, and hackers hacked into mailboxes of officials and public institutions.
In fresh years, young people have besides been recruited online for acts of political vandalism for money, cyber attacks for critical infrastructure. Deepfies were utilized in political combat, and threats were called to voters.
How do Moldova and the West respond to Russian activities?
Europe supports Moldova primarily politically and economically: it supports the sovereignty of Chisinau and integration with the EU, supports this country with grants and invests in the diversification of its energy network and cybersecurity systems. In parallel, it applies sanctions and restrictions (travel bans, asset freeze) on persons and entities deemed to be active in destabilisation. In parallel, Britain and the United States apply their own restrictions.
The Chisinau itself has besides removed white gloves in fresh years. Arrests and confiscation of property began based on possible cooperation with Russia or its networks of influence. A alternatively controversial action has besides been taken to impede the voting of people surviving in separatist areas. Electoral ordination has been changed, and during the fresh parliamentary elections, "accidental" refurbishments of bridges, which the people of Transnistria go to the polling stations, began.
What can you anticipate after the Sunday elections?
Sunday parliamentary elections will be held in a situation of exceptional external pressure, increasing socio-economic unrest and a highly polarised political scene. The pro-European camp (PAS) has the task of maintaining the parliamentary majority in order to proceed reforms, the accelerated way of integration with the EU and the simplification of Russian influence. If PAS does not get an independent majority, it is said to make a coalition with openly or to hide pro-Russian forces.
This script seems, unfortunately, likely – corruption scandals discouraged voters from the ruling party. August polls propose that pro-Western PAS will gain 25.8% of votes, the pro-Russian Patriotic Election Block – 19.7%. In addition, 2 fresh parties with unclear affiliations are to enter Parliament. Another poll, quoted in mid-September by Reuters, is even worse: suggests winning the Patriotic Block with a consequence of 36 percent.
According to representatives of the authorities and observers, Russia is besides planning “kinetic” activities, i.e. physical sabotage actions: arson, protest organisation, false flag operations and street fights. Experts inform that on election day Moscow will effort to mobilize people from Transnistria to provoke on the line separating the region. Authorities announce that Russia may be threatening to plant bombs, carry out cyber attacks, shut down electricity and provoke fights at polling stations with paid provocators.
Meanwhile, in Transnistria, in which this year's energy crisis has brought death victims – there is concern about the first heating period since the crisis, which begins during the elections. Voters are terrified that if pro-European forces are won, the situation will happen again.
The Moldovan Telegram channels – possibly the most crucial origin of information in the country – have been flooding the fake news since August about Moldova's secret engagement in the war in Ukraine, the poisoning of most water captures in the country, as well as the alleged plans of pro-European forces to introduce forced "LGBT education", the reception of refugees and the accession of Moldova to Romania.
It is worth watching the upcoming elections in Moldova. We will most likely see in them, on a smaller scale, solutions that Moscow will shortly besides apply to us.
