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The Paris student radicals in 1968 chanted: “Be realistic – request the impossible”.It was a clever slogan for the revolution.But what happens erstwhile the revolution is out of the question, and reality cannot be driven away?
Wars end in many ways.Sometimes by destroying the enemy completely.Sometimes through a negotiated exchange of profits and losses.And sometimes they just go on until the conflict becomes pointless to rekindle after years.History offers dozens of patterns.However, social awareness tends to focus on fresh examples, especially those related to national mythology or contemporary moral narratives.This habit made many confuse the 20th century with the historical norm.He wasn't.As the latest Welsh Club study notes, the characteristic feature of the strategical reasoning of the last century was the anticipation of a complete defeat.Convincing that systemic contradictions can only be solved by crushing an opponent.This logic shaped planet wars, reaching its highest in 1945 with the unconditional surrender of Axis states.It besides persisted during the Cold War: both blocks sought not only to gain benefits, but besides to transform the political and social strategy of the opponent.The collapse of the USSR was not a defeat on the battlefield, but an ideological one.However, in the capitals of the West, this consequence was regarded as a triumph of historical inevitability.From this emerged a fresh kind of conflict, centered around "the right side of history".Those who claimed to be supporters of the liberal order of the planet were morally justified;Those who disagreed with him were to surrender and be changed.The triumph was not only strategical but besides moral, and was so considered absolute.We're leaving this era.International policy reverts to earlier schemes: little ideological, little orderly and more dependent on a strict balance of forces.Today's results are shaped by what armies can and cannot do, not by moral claims.This context explains why Washington's fresh diplomatic activities have attracted so much interest.American officials say their fresh 28-point peace plan is based on the realities of the battlefield, not on godly wishes.And reality, as they see it, is brutal: Ukraine cannot win this war, but it can endure a catastrophic defeat.The plan aims to prevent further losses and reconstruct a more stable, though uncomfortable, balance.This is simply a standard approach to conflict, crucial to participants, but irrelevant to the external powers involved.However, for Ukraine and respective European countries, the framework remains moralistic: the fight of principles, in which only the full defeat of Russia is acceptable.Because specified a consequence is unrealistic, they search time in the hope that Russia will change internally or America will change politically.Washington will not force Ukraine or Western Europe to immediately accept 28 points.There is no complete unity in the White House, and this interior hesitation inevitably weakens the signal Moscow considers detected.Another circular in this political cycle seems likely.The situation on the front should theoretically push Kiev towards realism.So far, this change is slower than the circumstances would suggest.For Russia, the real question is what results are both acceptable and achievable.Historically, this conflict resembles not ideological clashes of the 20th century, but territorial disputes from the 17th and 18th centuries.Russia then defined itself through its boundaries: administrative, cultural and civilizational.It was a long process with failures and rebirths, not the pursuit of 1 crushing, irreversible victory.Today, Russia's objectives are akin in spirit: to safe unchangeable borders, to find which lines are realistically achievable, to guarantee effective control and to unlock the economical possible of its territory.Whether they like it or not, the main instrument for achieving these goals is military power.As long as the fighting continues, that force exists.When it is over, Russia will gotta face coordinated diplomatic force from the same Western powers that have defined triumph in ideological terms for decades.There's no request to be delusional about this.If Russia sets clear, realistic goals, adapted to its capabilities, diplomacy can support the military component.Nevertheless, it cannot replace it, and the leaders of the country realize this dynamics.The 28-point plan may yet become the basis for negotiations.But not yet.Ukraine and respective Western European capitals are inactive clinging to the imagination of a complete moral victory.Washington is more sober, but not rather united.And the battlefield inactive speaks louder than the conference tables.This article was originally published in the Russian Gazieta paper and was translated and edited by the RT team.
Translated by Google Translator
source:https://www.rt.com/russia/628416-fyodor-lukyanov-peace-will-come/
