Exit polls show preliminary results and tours. There are surprises!

According to an exit poll survey prepared by Ipsos for Polsat Television, TVN and TVP, Rafał Trzaskowski won the first circular of the 2025 presidential election. The Citizen Coalition candidate received 30.8% support. Right behind him was Karol Nawrocki, representing the environment of Law and Justice, with a consequence of 29.1 percent. The difference between candidates is minimal and within the limits of statistical error. This means 1 thing: On 2 June Poles will go to the polls one more time to appoint a fresh president of the Republic of Poland.

A fewer months ago, Trzaskowski's lead in the polls was more clear. However, Nawrocki, consistently building his position as a candidate for the "new right" and cutting off from any controversial decisions of the Law and Justice Government, managed to convince himself of a large proportion of voters. Its 29.1% is simply a consequence that clearly shows that the United Right electorate remained strong and mobilized.

A surprise is besides the consequence of the 3rd in the race – Sławomir Mentzen. The leader of fresh Hope gained 15.4%, confirming that his political environment is establishing its position. The last polls gave him less. Grzegorz Braun, a candidate of the Confederation of the Polish Crown, gained 6.2 percent – that is more than the polls showed. But many are besides shocked by his 4th position in this race. Adrian Zandberg from the Left has 5.2 percent. Simon Holownia's score (4.8 percent) may be disappointing for Poland 2050, although his average kind and engagement in the run may inactive prove crucial in the context of the second round.

The results of the another candidates are as follows: Magdalena Biejat – 4.1 percent, Joanna Senyszyn – 1.3 percent, Krzysztof Stanowski – 1.3 percent, Marek Jakubiak – 0.8 percent, Artur Bartoszewicz – 0.5 percent, Maciej Maciak – 0.4% and Marek Woch – 0.1 percent. Although they did not have a real chance of moving to the second round, their voters will besides play an crucial function in the final outcome.

Rafał Trzaskowski won in 10 provinces: Dolnośląskie, Kujawsko-Pomorskie, Lubuskie, Mazowieckie, Opole, Pomeranian, Silesian, Warmian-Masurian, Wielkopolska and Zachodniopomorskie. These are regions with a strong centre and liberal tradition, where voters dominate the place, frequently better educated and associated with large agglomerations. Trzaskowski, as the current president of Warsaw, enjoys established support there.

In turn Karol Nawrocki won in six provinces: Lublin, Łódź, Lesser Poland, Podkarpackie, Podlaskie and Świętokrzyskie – bastions of the right. His message about the request for a strong state, respect for tradition and political continuity goes especially to voters in smaller towns and in the east of the country.

Turnout, according to Ipsos data, was 66.8 percent, which represents an increase compared to erstwhile elections. In 2020, in the first round, 64.51 percent of eligible, in 2015 – 48.96 percent, and in 2010 – 54.94 percent. This shows that Poles take these elections very seriously and are aware of the importance of choosing the head of state for the next 5 years.

The exit poll was published immediately after the closing of the polling stations. The vast majority of observers agree that the difference between the 2 main candidates is besides tiny to talk of a clear triumph in the first round. Now everything depends on the next 2 weeks – the run starts again, but in a much more polarized atmosphere.

It is not yet known what strategy the candidates will adopt. Trzaskowski will most likely effort to extend his election base to centre voters of Hołownia and the Left, building a message based on pluralism, tolerance and openness. Nawrocks, on the another hand, can number on the support of Mentzen and Braun's electorate, focusing on conservatism, sovereignty and security.

Political gestures will be no little important. Will Mentzen or Holovnia officially support any of the candidates? Is the right-wing camp able to unite around Nawrocki, which is not a typical PiS policy, but alternatively an independent candidate supported by this environment? Can Trzaskowski convince the left that his triumph means a chance for a progressive change?

One thing is certain: the second turn will be exciting, and the consequence – very hard to predict. The 1.7 percent point difference is not adequate to talk about the advantage. Mobilization of the electorate, fresh days of campaigning, debates, meetings and events – all of this can tip the scales of victory.

The Poles will decide on 2 June. Not only the office of the president will be at stake, but besides the direction in which Poland will follow in the following years. Will it be a continuation of the liberal-democratic way of Trzaskovsky or a fresh conservative imagination of the Nawrock State? Everything's inactive ahead of us.