The fresh duo will overthrow this strategy [A study by Sierakowski and Sadura]

INTRODUCTION

The voters, like the media, focus on what they see on the surface, that is, in current politics and publicism. We will begin by evaluating the election run itself, but in the following parts (2–6) we will look under it to show what social processes are behind the changes and what they announce.

In the presidential election, it was the focus on current events that confused politicians supporting Rafał Trzaskowski, while it was not so much a successful election run as the social processes taking place for a long time brought to the throne of an almost anonymous candidate, who until late was Karol Nawrocki. Symptomatic that a brick favourite lost to a beginner politician, to that, seemed to be, compromised. Who now believes that it is only 2 percent of the vote lost, will one more time make the same mistake – they will be satisfied with an analysis of what is on the surface, but they will ignore social changes going beyond the publicist horizon. As we will show below, they are tectonic and can replace the current political division completely new, leading to a change of the full political order in Poland.

To begin, we will show what has been neglected in efforts for the presidency for Rafał Trzaskowski. In the following parts, how the PO-PiS duo begins to be displaced by a increasing fresh right and a fresh left. Based on the survey and group interviews, we will present the views, attitudes and expectations of their voters.

THE FIRST PART. WHY DID THE TRAZASKOWSKI REFALL?

In the last study Hidden Power Crisis, published on the anniversary of the creation of Donald Tusk's government, we showed how bad the moods are among the voters of the government coalition. The respondents were very negative about the government's work, expressed disappointment at the deficiency of an thought to make the key promises, which resulted in demobilisation and desertion of key groups of voters (young people and young women). The problem was to stamp out assurance in the government, especially in the voters of the Left and 3rd Way, and their subsequent demobilization. It was known that in a polarized society elections could be won primarily by mobilising their supporters. How could this be done under these conditions?

1. For six months since then, no actions have been taken to reverse these trends. The exception was an overall deregulation task that could attract Confederate voters. It was already known that they could decide on the result of the presidential election, as Sławomir Mentzen ranked 3rd in the polls. Except... The deregulation of the economy was made by businessman Rafał Brzoska, not Trzaskowski. The task was not completed before the election.

2. For a year and a half, nothing comparable to 500 plus was presented that provided PiS with hegemony for years and became the basis of the PiS alliance with the folk class. We wrote that the cost of returning populism the power will be greater than even a crucial increase in the deficit. Then It was worth the temptation for 1 but spectacular improvement aimed at the folk class, which would give Trzaskowski a chance to build popularity outside his traditional, large-town mostly, electoral base.

Trzaskowski lost, and attendance was somewhat lower than expected. Why?

– I think he was tired of the electorate. Then [in 2023] there was just specified a crisis that the PiS would come to power again. And then they all mobilized.

Tired of what?

– The same thing all the time. I think it's besides slow, it's all happening, it's going besides slow, it's going besides slow.

– People have not been happy with the government's work so far. due to the fact that the government wasn't doing anything. The president rejected five, vetoed 5 laws. If they were to give him a bill all week – veto, veto, veto, veto – then they could say, "Well, we fuck as much as we can, and he blocks everything."

– And a 100 more details inactive not realized. Oh, and that's what could have mobilized these people. They should start working efficiently.

– [Revealed] scandals are only turned on by interest [Karol Nawrocki]. It should just be the cherry on the cake. And it should be: we did it, this, this. And besides that we as taxpayers felt it. And we besides planted that beet. Plus!

– Well, nothing, it's a halt. It's like holding back. They started a large couple, but the couple escaped. They started doing everything, but someway nothing is finished. I think they made a large fuss or a smokescreen.

4 fgi_politics_3.06_Gdansk (Trzaskowski)

3. The democratic side again fell into the PiS's afero-resistance trap: the more scandals were revealed, the more the PiS candidate became recognizable and could symbolize popular opposition to the elite. The run brought further revelations about Karol Nawrocki's past. We have learned about the usage of resources under his institution for private purposes (a suite in the Museum of planet War II), about the extortion of a condo from his mother's older and sick neighbor, about murmuring acquaintances in the underworld and participation in kibolian settings. It besides came to the news that the presidential candidate in the past as a bodyguard for 1 of the luxury hotels was active in sutery. As expected, this information flowed through the PiS electorate like duck water. The fanatical electorate did not believe, the cynical electorate was not peculiarly moved, due to the fact that it has not long been expected from its typical ethical politicians. It is impossible to accuse journalists of exposing scandals due to the fact that that is their role. But it can already be said to politicians from the Trzask camp that since they saw the atmosphere of victimization around Nawrocki, it was crucial to focus on building their own affirmative message alternatively than focusing on criticizing the opponent. Especially Among the young voters, the boomerang effect worked, and thus the intellectual tendency to choose the other of what individual suggests to us, especially erstwhile the proposition is besides aggressive and pushy. advanced attendance in this group, unlike in October 2023, this time increased the consequence of the PiS candidate.

How do you justice the Trzask campaign?

– The run can't look like you're just slandering your main countercandidate. It was nonstop to draw out that the another 1 was any kind of gangus, that the another 1 was a sutener, that something, or in turn, I don't know, stood and waved a jar of German pickles or Prince Polo. Just for his years in politics, that was wrong.

– He looked tired. He didn't look so good.

– The 3rd thing, erstwhile there was a debate in Konski, was there only Nawrocki, Trzaskowski somewhere else, I don't remember.

1 fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Mentzen and Braun)

Have you considered giving up an invalid vote?

– That's what I thought at first, but erstwhile that nag on Nawrocki started, it was so disgusting to get him out of his childhood, his youth. That boxing's been practicing that he's a pimp. Really? The man graduated from college, did his PhD, became head of the IPN. Yeah, he came from blocks. He wasn't from the salons like Trzaskowski. Well, he was out of those blocks, and he had the mistakes of his youth, but he came out of it. He did his PhD. And they're inactive theirs. I decided to vote against this Trzaskowski.

5 fgi_politics_3.06_Gdansk (Mentzen and Braun)

– There's a syndrome of specified an attack that he's an animal that's attacked by media forces and so on. If you fuck with someone, man... He's on defensive mode right away. Undefensive, just a mode I would call saving whoever's being attacked, who's being spit on.

– And as you hear all week, all 4 days... And the 1 who's out there, again, they've invented something for him, and so on.

PiS 3 fgi_politics_3.06_Puławy (Nawrocks)

Among any of Nawrocki's supporters, shame effect. Although the voters did not change their plans and were inactive planning to vote for the Nominat Nowogrodzka, this time they were ashamed and withheld information about what they truly wanted to do on the electoral Sunday.

4. Another origin that helped consolidate Nawrocki's electorate and present it as an anti-establishment candidate was the appeal of any commentators, celebrities and average people to superior narratives and contempt towards the PiS candidate and his electorate. Let's see how the voters of the another side spoke of the KO voters.

– The problem is, this isn't about Nawrock. It could have been anyone. It could have been Ziutek, Dick of 1 or another. And the same result. They're not even voters, they're followers. What you'll say, they believe in the dark, and there's no discussion at all.

– Law and Justice.

– Elementary, lowest national, publishing, 5 kids, 800 plus five.

– And those thieves are better off than me, I'm certain they stole.

How would you describe those people who aren't on your side, those who don't vote like you? Who's that?

– But without cursing?

– We're here today, and since we've all been slamming, so to speak, we're a small disappointed with the election results...

– From this, for example, the publishing of the Law and Justice, all of this has consequences.

Who are they? Town, village?

– Nope. It turned out that in Poland Poles are a minority, and most of them are morons. Flatlanders.

– We laughter that in the next election, the PiS will exposure any homeless man to see how low the bar can be hung to its voters.

4 fgi_politics_3.06_Gdansk (Trzaskowski)

The awareness of this classical film, to which the supporters of Trzaskovsky were unreflexively reaching, mobilized Nawrocki's supporters and all those who did not identify with the “Polish salon”. any divided the nation into Poles and morons, while others divided them into patriots and traitors. The last ones won. There was no wisdom, abstinence, and love policy that Tusk won the run in 2023. It turned out that although an intelligent audience went to the bookstores to buy Boys, however, this did not make the wave of exceeding the class division that has been accompanying us for centuries.

What do you think is most memorable?

– In general, first associations. Potatoes. Man, that's respect for people in DPS, man, in hospice. This is Kinga Gajewska, who, gosh, took so much money for miles and everything. And that's the full platform.

PiS 3 fgi_politics_3.06_Puławy (Nawrocks)

– I think these scandals are exaggerated with Nawrock, these examples. He's young then.

– So he was 16, and this Muranian guy pulls it out, which besides has intellectual illness, cases lost in court, talking, and so on, so there's no credibility. I can't verify those erstwhile things. Okay, we all did things erstwhile we were young. I'm judging him as president of the Institute of National Memory.

– It's gone. Well, erstwhile he was boxing, he was on the goal. all boxer stands on a goal at clubs. In all city it is.

– But they resent him for doing business at night. What it takes to do that is to condemn people who work at night. They just despise another people. Well, he said he worked at night due to the fact that he studied during the day. I mean, he made money. The boy learns, he's from the lowlands, and he did the doctor, went to the state office. Pulling out any horrible pull that... he just behaved well...

1 fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Mentzen and Braun)

The failure of Rafał Trzaskowski by little than 2% of the vote is misleading in terms of the actual scale of government coalition defeat. Let us remind you: in these elections, a brick favourite lost to a candidate "pull out of a hat" and burdened with highly toxic facts in his life. Something much more happened here. In our last report, Trzaskowski mentioned as her candidate without a question about 30 percent of voters. No 1 else was pointed out by more than a fewer percent of the respondents. Nawrocki wasn't even in the plans, let alone in the polls.

Karol Nawrocki's success is mostly due to an increase in support, but not to the Law and Justice, representing the old establishment, but to 2 politicians from the Confederate who together gathered almost 21 percent and grew in polls. For a reason, Nawrocki and Mentzen look at each other, signaling that Nawrocki does not should be the president cooperating with the Law and Justice like Andrzej Duda. It may as well be the president of the Confederacy, not the Law and Justice, and much little the coalition. And placing it in the law firm's policies proves alternatively concerns about its independence, and consequently its relation with the Confederacy, alternatively than the certainty that it will depend on the law enforcement. Andrzej Duda no 1 had to bet on PiS politicians. The head of the President's Chancellery Przemysław Czarnek fits with views and kind to the Confederacy no little than to the Law and Justice.

PART TWO. A RETURNING triumph is simply a TRANSITION FROM THE OLD RIGHTER TO NEW

An analysis of electoral flows reveals that Karol Nawrocki's triumph was the consequence of a large consolidation of the Polish right around a common candidate – a political operation whose epicentre was a mass influx of votes from the Confederate.

According to exit polls results, about 34 percent. The votes cast in the second circular on Karol Nawrocki came from voters who voted for Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun in the first round.. Without consolidation with the Confederate and Crown, the right was doomed to failure.

What made this consolidation so effective? The key was asymmetrical mobilisation: while Nawrocki gained 87 percent Mentzen voters and 93 percent Braun supporters, Trzaskowski managed to convince only 13 percent of the electorate of the young Confederation and 7 percent of the supporters of the leader of the Confederation of the Polish Crown who went to the urns.

Old Right

72 percent of Nawrocki electorate in the second circular were faithful voters of Law and Justicewho voted for this organization in the parliamentary elections in October 2023. It is an electorate with a clearly conservative demographic profile: older (only 15 percent of people aged 18–34), with a lower level of education, primarily surviving in smaller cities and agrarian areas. The sex structure of this electorate shows a male advantage (57%).

The PiS voters are aware of negative opinions about themselves. They effort to mock them, to reverse their meaning, to take ironically over, saying about themselves: urinals, mohers, shoals or province.

– In 2023, I voted for PiS and now for Nawrocki. And so the Lublin vote here due to the fact that possibly we're a homestead...

– Yes, the daughter, in Warsaw, and for them we from here and besides as boomers, we are here 100 years behind the blacks and we are confused. And I got this... it's like I'm on cabbage and I'm thinking, if there's any fear, they'll go to 1 place, I suspect.

– Daddy's for the money.

– On his knees to Czestochowa. And now everybody's a gimp, as good as it is, as healthy, young, going to the gym.

PiS 3 fgi_politics_3.06_Puławy (Nawrocks)

For this group, Nawrocki's election was a natural continuation of loyalty to the political draft Law and Justice, which for a change is seen as the only legitimate heir and follower of the solidarity traditions or more broadly related to the anti-communist opposition from the PRL period. It does not substance that all anti-communist opposition leaders actually represent or support the another side. However, they are present representatives of the elite, which disqualifies them in the eyes of the provinces.

– I stick to mine. I've identified myself... I'm an orthodox moher, but possibly I'm not that scary. I can't stand behind someone, behind individual who beat the crap out of people who drove up our tanks. I was a nine-year-old at the time, as from the balcony on July 22nd, that was the street's name, but later we were right to change to Norwid, and I watched the tanks drive, and now these Trzaskovskys and the another Sensins, I'm sorry, they stick to the hands and legs of all this so that they don't take distant those twelve 1000 pensions.

PiS 3 fgi_politics_3.06_Puławy (Nawrocks)

A poll showed that The priorities of the “loyal defender of the Law and Justice” focused on 3 key areas: maintaining social programmes (especially 800 plus), defending conventional values and ensuring Poland's strong global position. Again, it turned out that it did not substance that the government coalition maintained all social programs (800 plus it itself passed) and even expanded them, for example, by "grandmother". In addition, it has stepped up Poland's global position. It does not discriminate against citizens choosing a conventional model of household and upbringing. This paradox should give thought to those who think that it is adequate to “take people out of error”, “tell them what it truly is” to change their mind. We addressed this phenomenon more extensively in the chapter describing the matrimony of the postmodernist position of facts with right-wing populism in the book Population of populists.

In in-depth interviews, we have besides confirmed in our first study on Political Cynicism of Poles divided into a fanatical electorate of Law and Justice and a cynical electorate, voting for the Law and Justice with full awareness of abuse and scandal, but based on economical calculation.

– They promised a lot, and I'll say... You know, I think all organization steals. The police were stealing, but how much was left? A lot. They bargain you, and there's practically nothing left. I can't. I can't realize it...

– They've outdone 2 years, man, they've outdone the writers twice as much. due to the fact that the writers did scams too, and they blew money too, but, man, I'm sorry, there was inactive something left there, and there was something else about the profits...

– And for little than 2 years... This is the right of the winner.

PiS 3 fgi_politics_3.06_Puławy (Nawrocks)

The first interpreted the rivalry between Nawrocki and Trzaskowski as an component of the eternal fight of real Poles and impeachers, others saw alternatively the rivalry of greedy politicians who shared with their facilities: KO with the elite, and PiS with the people.

– Charles Nawrocki doesn't want any outside people here, I say. I think he's a bigger patriot than Mr. Trzaskowski.

– However, returning to Nawrocki, I think Nawrocki is closer to this class of people like me to say, a small poorer. Plus, his views are going that way, too, so that these mediocre people have a small bit, a small bit. It is known that Trzaskowski represents this sphere of businessmen, those, let's say, people richer. So you can see from the divided now, how did this Poland vote, right? So these large cities are closer to the Western border, all of which are, say, behind Trzaskowski.

PiS 3 fgi_politics_3.06_Puławy (Nawrocks)

In fact, almost all large and medium-sized cities voted mostly for Trzaskowski, regardless of the region. A state by analogy – Nawrocki. The fact is polarization – not so much political, due to the fact that it is only a derivative – but social. And this 1 is nothing fresh but an unburdened post-earthly division. alternatively of repeating the same constantly complaining about political polarity, let us yet address the city-to-town opposition. A good introduction to this is the dumping of critical literature on social history, which Andrzej Leder initiated in A Dreamful Revolutionand then continued, among others, Casper Pobłocki (That's rude.), Adam Leszczyński (People's past of Poland) and Joanna Kuciel-Frydryszak (Boys). Unfailing popularity Boy, beating any reading records all year, is the best indicator that We live on an untreated wound.. Every liberal government in Poland will fall sooner or later, if it does not find a way to implement a social improvement programme, which would build people's assurance in the elite, under force of current problems. Only then will we go beyond political polarisation, and in any case it will not be so extreme, toxic and motivating to break the rules of political struggle.

Until this happens, the people will have origin for rebellion and right, showing hostility to elites, cities, educated, better earners. And it should not be any excuse for the way he does it – wise or stupid, real or not, elegant or primitive. It is symptomatic that the times of Solidarity – the only truly minute in the modern past of Poland erstwhile the people went with the elites – are identified by both sides as their own.

NEW RIGHT

Another 28 percent. Nawrocki's electorate came from the Confederate and Crown. It's a group that turned out to be the demographic and ideological other of the conventional PiS electorate. They are mainly young men (54 percent male in the case of the Mentzen electorate, 52 percent for Braun, average age 28) with a advanced level of education (50% with higher education), mostly in large cities.

Representatives of this group invited to group interviews (focuses) against the background of another electorates appeared a very advanced interest in politics and a tendency to learn from very diverse sources. This is the most active right-wing electorate today.

– I've been more curious in it for respective years. This is simply a moment. I guess maturity for certain decisions and wanting to get to know it. I utilized to have no interest in the Sejm, erstwhile you were a child, it was boring, and now I think I've just grown up.

– Well, I was usually curious around the election, as they approached, a small bit more. Now, the older I get, the more I follow, read, watch different politicians in social media, watch any movies, Channel Zero is on the move, and I'm just listening.

1 fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Mentzen and Braun)

These voters are willing to do a lot to get into politics. They watch various news programs, besides in the completely out of scope of their generation of television, enter candidates' websites, read various websites. any have declared watching almost all major news programs. Interestingly, all this effort usually led them to reflect that the only reliable origin of information is the Zero Channel and programs of Krzysztof Stanowski, 1 of the candidates – from a peculiar group. By the way, let's see that linking electoral campaigns to social media business can become more and more common. Something akin to Stanowski besides did Sławomir Mentzen erstwhile he invited Trzaskowski and Nawrocki to talk on his YouTube channel, which besides brought him subscribers, and so money. We propose that politicians, journalists and electoral experts consider this.

– For example, I have conducted specified an experimentation on myself that in fresh weeks I have watched the information of the Republic, TVN, Polsat and TVP. It was hard, but I survived. I survived. It wasn't easy. (He added respective radio stations, from 3 and RDC to Radio Maryja; weeklys – from “Newsweek” to “Sunday Guest”).

Now it's detox.

Any conclusion on this experiment?

– That no tv is credible.

Do you even feel like there's any news channel, any psychic that's credible?

– I mean, this is the most mentioned here in this conversation of Channel Zero, due to the fact that there's this thought that each candidate truly has the chance to talk and there's no way to just shout, due to the fact that in these average televisions, the most popular ones, it's the conversations in an hour, where three, 4 candidates shout, they don't answer the subject are completely meaningless, and it's good that there's something about the network where everyone has the freedom of expression in fact.

1 fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Mentzen and Braun)

– Well, I just don't trust the media, so I'm trying to watch all the media, and then I draw conclusions.

But all of them? Like sitting down and watching TVN, TVP and all that?

– And tv Republic, and the conclusion is that no of them are impartial television. It takes me 2 hours – not all day – and I know everything...

5 fgi_politics_3.06_Gdansk (Mentzen and Braun)

I watched it with curiosity, due to the fact that specified a debate was for me a evidence of precisely what this candidate is, due to the fact that in these even Electoral Lanterns there it was possible to mark it for the answer, then I had specified circuses, due to the fact that the committees did not send all their answers, for example.

Few, these debates yet, any have supplemented them with, for example, Stanowski's electoral studio. Have you seen any of this?

– Yeah, yeah, the shortest, the 3 seconds I had.

– No, I'm the 1 who watched them all due to the fact that I've always had the opportunity.

– But all of them, all of them?

– Stanowski's. I have an office job. 8 hours on headphones.

5 fgi_politics_3.06_Gdansk (Mentzen and Braun)

For a young right, the common denominator was disillusionment with political establishment and the belief that conventional parties are incapable to carry out "real reforms".

Let me ask you, why the Confederate? How much was it that you had it well thought out, justified?

– In my case, it was not considered at all, but there was an anti-system vote simply.

– And I knew from the beginning of my right to vote that I would vote for the Confederacy, due to the fact that it's just that I and quite a few people are getting tired of this duality, and just like my colleague mentioned, anti-systemically. Besides, I like their election program and the fact that they are besides young people and can be identified with them more than with those old grandparents who are constantly.

Fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Mentzen and Braun)

Nawrocki won their votes not so much thanks to the economical program (which in many points differed from the demands of the Confederate), but because, against the background of Trzaskovsky, he was perceived as an anti-establishment candidate or paving the way for the taking over of power by anti-establishment forces. This impression was repeatedly multiplied by the media, revealing the evidence number of facts "normally" disqualifying the candidate – but who wanted a fresh normality, that is, disqualification of the "system", found in Nawrock's individual a means to an end.

May I ask how you voted in the second round?

– I just went to vote for the alleged lesser evil. I voted for Poland and I voted for Kaczyński.

– That's Nawrocks.

– I just voted against Trzaskowski.

– I believe that the president does not have as much power in Poland as we think he will. Although in 2 and a half years, if the strategy closes and the strategy closes, due to the fact that the right will win the next election, they will regulation again. Well, as with the PiS that they had parliament and the president, it wasn't good.

– Well, unfortunately, we're going from the utmost to the point where this duo won't fall apart.

– Paula, Jacek?

– Nawrocks.

– Nawrocks. Let's go. This is an anti-platform.

– And there was no doubt, you know?

– Nope. I don't like it either, that we have 1 click in power: and the Prime Minister, and the President, and all are ruled by 1 and the same.

Fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Mentzen and Braun)

Aversion to concentration of power in the hands of 1 side was noted in 1 of the earlier reports. erstwhile we asked the PiS voters if they wanted for their organization a constitutional majority – the majority did not want.

BORN FROM THE CENTER

The smallest but politically crucial component of Nawrock's electorate were voters who in 2023 voted for centre parties (Third Road) or leftist parties, and in the presidential election supported the right-wing candidate. This group, although numerically tiny (about 5% of Nawrocki electorate), symbolizes a wider phenomenon erosion centre of the Polish political scene.

The profile of these "convertites" differs importantly from another parts of the Nawrocki electorate: they are middle-educated people surviving in tiny and medium-sized cities, more frequently women than men. The analysis of their motivation shows that economical issues were decisive – disillusionment of the economical policy of Donald Tusk's government and Nawrocki's promises to support the mediate class.

In 2023 you voted for KO, why Mentzen and Nawrocks now?

– Overall, this somewhat changed my approach since the parliamentary elections and I regretted my decision [of 2023]. due to the fact that Donald Tusk's government did not keep its promises, so I found that keeping specified a duopol is pointless and just after doing such, you know, research, it turned out that quite a few people would decide to bet on the Confederacy, it was on Mentzen. I don't agree with him at all, but I'm a non-believer, so there are any aspects that are more religious... I do not support them, but I just think that erstwhile it comes to economical views, it has very sensible and so reasonable, so great.

– I was for KO too, but now he [Trzaskowski] did not say that he would force the government to pay this tax-free amount. And the next day, Mr Szczerba says they will carry it out, but by the end of the term. So here he denies that it won't be now, but possibly for the remainder of his term. They don't fulfill their promises. They just go from 1 lie to another.

[...]

– The PiS won due to the fact that he gave before the election, and they wanted to give after the election, so they didn't win.

– Well, in my opinion, as if they were besides focused on setting up any separate commissions to punish them and put them in jail alternatively of actually focusing on what they promised people, right? That's why they're not doing it. besides much clearance. It's like I was behind it at first, too, yeah, actually, due to the fact that they were stealing our money, but after a year and a half, I'm tired of it. I want they would take care of the things that truly contact us Poles the most, right?

5 fgi_politics_3.06_Gdansk (Mentzen and Braun)

Economics, fool! This password of the electorates of many parties is inactive bearable. In this way, a cynical electorate, which puts economical interests ahead of political morality, can be obtained. The issue of migration, which is the most diverse organization electorates in the West, inactive has much little meaning in Poland than economical motivations – besides due to the fact that opposition to immigration unites Poles alternatively than divides. Social polarisation may appear to be akin – in the US besides metropolitan America and state are against each another – but it is migration, not the economy that polarizes. We don't want immigrants to be admitted either way.

PART Three. fresh SITUATION OF SOCIAL CERTIFICATE

The 3rd Republic, which was born as a consequence of a round-the-clock agreement, was to be democratic, liberal, moderate, reject extremist ideology (both communism and nationalism). In the 1990s, despite the emergence of serious differences in society, there was a consensus on essential issues. There's no sign of him at the moment. Now there is simply a rejection of the most basic values which stood behind the strategy of the III Republic. Below we describe a fresh state of public awareness. He will be the basis for the success of any political forces and the failure of others. We show on respective axes directions in which most of the Polish society is heading.

Let us remind that at the sources of the duople of the PiS-PO there was a division between liberal Poland and social Poland. Since then, nearly 2 decades have passed, the Smolensk disaster has happened, the media has moved to the Internet, the economical transformation has changed the country, but 500 plus has permanently made PiS a typical of folk Poland, the more needy and little liberal Poland. It is so not so apparent that the Confederate Liberal-national electorate had to, by definition, support the PiS candidate and reject the KO candidate. Yet the votes cast in the first circular on Sławomir Mentzen in the second almost entirely fell to PiS candidate Karol Nawrock.

An analysis of the political views and priorities of the electorates reveals the main mechanisms of this consolidation of Confederate and PiS voters around Karol Nawrocki. The key to knowing the success of right-wing consolidation was discovery significant level of political radicalisation among all segments of Nawrocki electorate.

COUNCILCALISM

In what voters of all right-wing candidates tell us, the main focus is the universality of extremist attitudes. On the scale of political radicalism (measured in support of "radical politicians" and frustration of the deficiency of "authentic" politicians), Braun's voters reached 4,14, Nawrocki – 4,07, and Mentzen – 4,05. These are very advanced values on a scale of 1 to 5, indicating mass acceptance for extremist methods and politicians.

[...] What's your favourite thing about their show?

– I, due to the fact that I am a nationalist from convictions, have always voted for Krzysztof Bosak due to the fact that I consider him the best. I regretted very much that he did not run for presidential election due to the fact that I think that this consequence would be much better, he had much better predispositions. He should be here in 5 years. First of all, I have the impression that this is simply a organization that truly wants to take care of our Polish affairs here, that we Poles are in the first place. We are hosts, everything on our terms and we do not simply surrender to the dictatorship of the European Union and another countries.

Fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Mentzen and Braun)

– Oh, and I liked that he, Grzegorz Braun, is simply a proponent, let's say that specified a truthfulness, pure patriotism. And the Church. [...] And as 1 specified politician, I will say yes, he is not afraid of his worth manifesting in specified a way, possibly a small over-exaggerated, besides strong, but he does not care whether this immunity is taken distant or punished. He's a beautiful man for words, so to speak. The card doesn't read. And yet he went into the studio, not ashamed of the greeting that has been in our country since the dawn of centuries, saying to people "the happiness of God," no?

PiS 3 fgi_politics_3.06_Puławy (Nawrocks)

Even the voters of Trzaskowski and Zandberg gained advanced values on this scale. Political radicalism has become the norm, not the exception in Polish politics, but the right managed to channel it in a much more effective way.

– There were plenty of candidates. I think the most about the presidential election after the 1990s. As I have seen this list, I have stated that if the man who runs Channel Zero was able to collect most likely 100,000 signatures, then our nation is rather utmost and my choice besides fell on a individual who is simply a good candidate, has super opinions, but has no financial support and is extreme.

Which is?

– That's Zandberg.

Mentzen and Braun [...] combined these candidates had rather advanced support. What do you think this is?

– About wanting to halt what's been happening since 2010.

2 fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Levice)

The exception to this regulation was the electorate Magdalena Biejat – the consequence 3,48 (the closest neutrality of all candidates, but inactive high) suggests that the government left retained a greater attachment to democratic standards and procedures, which at the same time made it little competitive in the era of populist mobilization.

AUTHORITY

Equally interesting are the measurement results Acceptance for Authoritarianism. Braun's electorate reached 3.77, Mentzena – 3.65, Nawrocki – 3.53, and even Trzaskowski – 3.28. All these values are above neutrality, which means acceptance for a “strong leader who can bend the rules to settle crucial matters”.

Karol Nawrocki turned out to be a candidate bending the law – a man who did not bow to standards and principles. His approach to reality was perceived as fitting to these times.

– He's specified a peasant that people from the country, too, most people want one... Ours is so much more average here, isn't it? There are times erstwhile people want a president so determined... You don't know what it's made of, but who says what's right!

1 fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Mentzen and Braun)

We remember how many people ridiculed the fact that the candidate of Law and Justice in the election run runs from 1 gym to another, while Jarosław Kaczyński's organization actually identified the majority of voters' ideas of what a leader is needed for now.

The only exception in the context of authoritarianism was the left – especially the electorate of Adrian Zandberg, who reached 2.85 (the lowest value of all candidates – below neutrality). besides the voters of Magdalena Biejat (3,31) were below average.

In general, democracy as a political strategy lost value in the eyes of Poles and Poles, and so candidates attached to democratic principles. W Population We wrote about the democratic side that it moves towards accepting the language of hate. The right hand, in turn, moved from accepting the language of hatred to accepting the usage of force in politics. If Charles Nawrocki didn't exist, he should have been invented. And Jarosław Kaczyński did it.

Even the political center shows noticeable tolerance for authoritarian solutions, which creates susceptible ground for populist politicians of all options.

ANTISYSTEMITY

The 3rd key discovery is the almost universal nature of anti-system attitudes (convincing that voting is formality, political elites have alienated themselves from society and it takes a shock to fix the political strategy in Poland).

Why Mentzen?

– I have the same reasons as in the parliamentary elections to break up what is already there, due to the fact that I am very tired of it and I think that they will not bring anything new, but they will proceed to dig into what is wrong, so for me the best candidate was just Mentzen. There's also, how to say, it's very much besides Polish, right? And I feel that another parties would be happy to sale what is in Poland.

5 fgi_politics_3.06_Gdansk (Mentzen and Braun)

Braun's voters obtained 3.87 on this scale, Mentzena – 3.82, Nawrocki – 3.67, and Trzaskowski – 3.65. The left besides saw the same trend: both Zandberg and Biejat reached 3.55. The differences between all electorates proved amazingly small. The percent of those who agree that the current political strategy in Poland is so disabled that it cannot be repaired is the highest in the Braun electorate – 68%, and the lowest, but besides so high, turned out to be 56% among the Biejat voters. This indicates widespread frustration with politicians and institutions, the increasing belief that everyone is corrupt and that the planet of politics is governed by networks and agreements.

– Always win those who should win, who are just... That's how it happens, and that's why, for example, entrepreneurs or others... I have quite a few people in my household who I think are rich, I think they're chicken, I think they're buying a home in Warsaw, for example, they're buying $5 million, and he's... I don't have any money, but I can spend 5 million. 5 million for an apartment? And that's it... you know, scams. Cons on various invoices, on, damn, on grants, on others. What, they're not gonna vote for Trzaskowski? What do you mean, no? How the hell do they let them do that?

PiS 3 fgi_politics_3.06_Puławy (Nawrocks)

The key difference is not intensity criticism of the system, but on Wanted solutions.

The key origin connecting Nawrocki electorate and the Confederate was high level of anti-systemism. Although the differences between candidates in this dimension were not dramatic (Braun 3,87, Mentzen 3,82, Nawrocki 3,67 vs Trzaskowski 3,65), the direction of the desired changes turned out to be fundamentally different.

What do you think so comprehensively about the political strategy in Poland? Is he so flawed that it's better to prepare him again, isn't it so bad and adequate reform?

– I think it's all over again.

– That's what we'd like to do. We'd all gotta start surviving from scratch. The Confederacy is strong adequate to actually shake the strategy a small to restart it.

– It needs to be changed, due to the fact that I should be disbanded by all those 460 Members, where there are many career leaders, I think that up to 200 Members, the legislature for the erasure, are completely unnecessary. And these ministries are not detached, either, as are these Ministry of Equality mentioned, and it is not known from what it costs us a fewer million.

1 fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Mentzen and Braun)

Another crucial link was the “syphernality” understood as the realization of the Polish interest (e.g. in the area of climate policy) even at the price of conflict with the EU. Nawrocki reached 4,27 (highest value of all candidates), Braun – 4,00, Mentzen – 3,94, while Trzaskowski only 3,21.

What do you expect? I mean, what is this Poland of your dreams? How will she be different from this Polish duopol?

– Poland will be free. Like an enterprise. And there is the Union and enslavement. The European Union, the Government of Tusk, all the time restrictions in different spheres of life.

– We will make as a country, not focus on how the West works, whether we leave the Union and we will be independent, whether we leave the Union. I want I could give individual else a chance, due to the fact that I know that both bargain and they're generally... let's effort another one.

1 fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Mentzen and Braun)

The issue of specified "syphericalness" proved crucial. The Nawrocki run utilized the communicative of "defence of the Polish interest" more effectively – a expression that corresponded to both the conventional patriotism of the PiS electorate and the anti-establishmental sovereignty of the young right.

‘PATRIOTISM’

Another phenomenon is patriotic populism. Ours are “patriots”, and they are “traitors”. Voters of all right-wing candidates (Nawrocks, Mentzen, Braun) highly appreciated the importance of this division (averages 3.71 to 3.87), while voters of Trzaskovsky took this category little seriously (3.41). This difference in the admission of candidates was not accidental. The right hand has successfully defined elections as a conflict between “real Poles” and “cosmopolitical elites”. specified communicative mobilised both conventional conservatives and young radicals, but was completely rejected by the left, which in this category achieved the lowest results (Zandberg and Biejat well below the national average).

– They spit on us, for example, that uneducated people voted, man, insult us at all turn. They think they're better. To the better and the world, and here are people with primary education, that young, dumbass and all. present the Holovnia said that they chose, chicken, everything, I mean, no slander yet, even though Nawrocki elect had already been chosen, he inactive slandered all those who voted for him due to the fact that he treated us as any inferior sort.

– As in the Polish-Polish war, now it is inactive – it is not yet known how much it is with a pull – I feel so on the labour side, the 1 a small poorer.

PiS 3 fgi_politics_3.06_Puławy (Nawrocks)

What kind of president would Nawrocki be?

– I'm definitely a patriot. Interestingly, in the military, in various units they voted mostly on Nawrocki, there he had 70 over percent, 80 and prisoners on Trzaskowski.

– I think these scandals are exaggerated with Nawrock, these examples. It was young then.

– Okay, we all did things erstwhile we were young. I'm judging him as president of the Institute of National Memory.

– I besides justice him as president and patriot, not that he utilized to fight there, that he boxed, that he had contact here.

– He is specified a simple peasant, and for example Trzaskowski it is simply slippery. I don't like Nawrocki more than Holovnia, who would cry before president Trump if he looked at him wrong.

1 fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Mentzen and Braun)

Although the electorates of right-wing candidates differed importantly in terms of the evaluation of the governments of the Law and Justice of 2015–2023 (on the index of the ratio to the Law and Justice of Nawrocki voters they reached 4.30 – full acceptance, and with Braun 3.54 and Mentzen – 3.49), this proved to be little crucial compared to another differences.

Some meaning as a origin consolidating the full far right from the PiS to the Crown of Braun was besides scepticism towards support for Ukraine. On an index consisting of the assessment of Polish aid to Ukraine and acceptance of geopolitical compromises, right-wing voters achieved very akin advanced values: Braun 4,10, Nawrocki 3,95, Mentzen 3,91, while in Trzaskowski and Biejat only 3.4, and Zandberg – 3,3.

The mechanics of expanding this reluctance was described in the study Poles behind Ukraine but against Ukrainians. The deficiency of public assurance in the state caused concern about whether the advanced burden of public service systems specified as wellness care, education, social assistance, taking seats in queues for Polish citizens or whether the standard of functioning of clinics, schools, etc. would surely not deteriorate. Freely spreading anti-Ukrainian narratives created the ground under the reorientation of the geopolitical communicative of the populist right.

At a time erstwhile it was inactive possible to take measures that could remedy or slow down the escalation of anti-Ukrainian sentiments, we warned against the consequences of indolence in this area. It was essential to open up, but without any resensitisation to talk about problems in burdened schools and wellness care, alternatively of showing limited aid to Ukrainians. This outraged the proukrian electorate, and the anti-Ukrainian did not abruptly change political views.

– With respect to these social programs [...] giving social to Ukrainians who – I know specified situations personally – came only for this, registered and returned to those areas of Ukraine where it is safe.

– I don't realize at all. That we're paying the money to strangers from another country with our taxes. This is some... I inactive realize people who gain and pay taxes. Here's a Ukrainian, he comes, he has a contract, he pays these taxes too. Okay. Then possibly he deserves it.

1fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Mentzen and Braun)

The PiS voters criticized the influx of “black, degenerative, aggressive youth” and seamlessly passed to Ukrainian refugees who get “all for free” (800+, housing subsidies, shopping, schools, books) while “Poles themselves have little”. The presence of young Ukrainians who do not fight at the front was criticised. At the same time, all young Ukrainians were thrown into 1 bag, assuming that they were definitely healthy, did not gotta support their family, and there were no another contraindications.

– Once we could afford vacations, erstwhile we could afford even 2 weeks, I drove to the sea, to the Baltic Sea. Now I can't go anywhere for a week, and those rich [Ukrainians] take social, costly cars pull up.

PiS 3 fgi_politics_3.06_Puławy (Nawrocks)

What if a Confederate-PiS coalition were formed?

– We could surely prevent the sale, the expansion of this Polish property. I think that it will surely hit the experiences of this Ukraine and this full influx of these, say, illegal migrants to Poland. I'm certain we wouldn't let that happen.

PiS 3 fgi_politics_3.06_Puławy (Nawrocks)

SURVEILLANCE

Programme integration has taken place around the issues of safety and sovereignty understood in a manner characteristic of nationalism. All right-wing coalition components showed advanced support for 3 key policy areas: Defence and security obtained almost identical validity assessments in all right-hand segments (means between 4.40 and 4.57). In this area, the differences between the conventional right and the young right barely exist. The war in Ukraine and the increasing sense of external danger created a consensus on the right side and part of the center. economical nationalism, in peculiar Energy policy, the simplification of energy costs for citizens was besides widely supported (means 4.40–4.58). For the voters of the Confederation, this was primarily a substance of economical competence and decision-making autonomy of the state, for the conventional electorate of the Law and Justice Union, and for social justice. Immigration control is another reason for consent on the right (means 4.42–4.56 vs 3.73 among the voters of Trzaskowski).

And what does their show say most to you?

– An approach to the European Union so that it simply changes, so that it is not all taken in Brussels, but that we actually have something to say and that electricity prices are not so high. They're behind alleged simple taxes, they're utilizing smaller businesses. They are in favour of preventing illegal immigrants, as happened in France, Germany. And I think that's how common-minded they are.

Anything else?

– Tradition, or Church, family, and at the same time they are not in favour of the Law and Justice, that this Church should regulation with them in principle, only that they just anticipate there to be a separateness between the Church and the State.

1 fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Mentzen and Braun)

Morawiecki or Tuska – which government was better and why?

– They were both bad for me, but I find 1 plus in both. For example, in Morawiecki, the only thing they did was give this wall on the border, from which everyone laughed at first. In Tusk's reality, it's the only thing they've been able to implement, as if affirmative for me, is in vitro backing – Says the 2023 KO electoral team, which in the presidential election passed its support to Mentzen.

5 fgi_politics_3.06_Gdansk (Mentzen and Braun)

DISCUSSIONS WERE HIDED IN THE LINE

The State’s function in the economy remains a disputed issue. conventional PiS voters showed strong support for social programs and state interventionism, while a large part of the Confederate electorate preferred a extremist simplification in the function of the state. Although in the program on YouTuba Sławomir Mentzen seemed to be better off Rafał Trzaskowski, Karol Nawrocki signed all the points of the program presented to him by the leader of the Confederate. Again, it turned out that the conventional politician who wants to stick to all the rules has no chance of a populist who will agree to anything for power, deny his views, will be 1 citizen day, and the another will be presented as a ‘Kaczyński decision’. The pattern is. Let us remind that Jarosław Kaczyński from the most neoliberal politician and prime minister in Poland became almost overnight the most social politician. If Rafał Trzaskowski had signed all Mentzen's points, would he have taken out part of his electorate and won? But would he be forgiven for this progressive voter gesture? Did progressive voters and their candidate not find themselves in a tragic situation? Trzaskowski, sensing this tension, tried to flirt with right-wing populism (the hiding of the rainbow flag), but was unreliable and yet ineffective.

Worldview issues besides divide the right, though to a lesser extent. While conventional PiS voters showed strong support for conservative policy on moral matters, part of the young right (especially the libertarian segment) was more liberal in these matters.

These tensions tried to phase the Trzaskovsky staff, tempting Mentzen's electorate with lower taxes and threatening with the imagination of "Polish church" à la PiS. The right-wing masked these discrepancies by presenting right-wing candidates as opponents of the current system, which included the “Gender ideology” and submission to the “Brussels dictatorship”. The old neoliberal grip was besides used, which since the 1990s promised that after taxation simplification wealth would flow to everyone, and so social welfare would become unnecessary.

– If I were to judge, I would choose the lesser evil that is the Law and Justice, because, for example, for their rule, they gained quite a few youth. For example, we did not pay taxes [...]

What about social? Maintaining social transfers is okay?

– I wouldn't delete it. If it's in place, it should stay.

– Mentzen said that there would be no 13th and 14th pensions, that's true, but he added that he wanted the pension not to be taxed. And then, erstwhile it comes to the full thing, these people would get more.

1 fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Mentzen and Braun)

Confederate voters became convinced that although the "social uproar" was exaggerated, the economy was taken seriously and there was a pro-growth approach at the time.

Morawiecki or Tusk and why? Which 1 was better?

– Morawiecki definitely, but it's not like I'm saying it due to the fact that I don't like Tusk, just due to the fact that it started to happen economically in Poland. It was, in part, a good socialism, due to the fact that it was handing out to the right and to the left, but from the times of the pandemic we came out anyway, I feel, stronger, stronger. And we came up with a lead in Europe.

5 fgi_politics_3.06_Gdansk (Mentzen and Braun)

SUMMARY

The triumph of Karol Nawrocki announces the birth of a fresh right, characterized by extremist conservative populism, which combines martyrdom-based patriotism with anti-elitarian and possibly anti-EU rhetoric, authoritative impulses and denial of political liberalism.

This fresh expression differs importantly from the right-wing populism of 2015–2023. First, it's more radical – it is based not only on criticism of a peculiar organization or Donald Tusk as its symbol, but on a fundamental protest of liberal-democratic order. It is the fresh right hand of the 3rd Republic, which Kaczyński erstwhile declared. Secondly, this protest is of a nature intergenerational.It concerns both older voters with conventional views and young anti-system radicals.

The key to this success is changing the political axis of the dispute. alternatively of the “PiS vs anti-PiS” confrontation, which dominated Polish politics for a decade, the right hand managed to impose a fresh division: behind the existing strategy or against. In this context, Nawrocki represented what was “radical” and “authentic”, besides thanks to his rebellious biography, while Trzaskowski functioned as a candidate for “system” and “elit”.

Analysis of the anatomy of Nawrocki's triumph allows to formulate respective crucial hypotheses concerning the future of Polish politics.

First of all, Right-wing consolidation may be permanent. The community of antisystemism, authoritarian impulses, political radicalism and sovereignty creates a strong ideological binder between the various segments of the right. If this coalition manages to keep programme and organisational coherence, it could mean the dusk of Polish democracy in its current form.

Secondly, the centre and parliamentary left can long find themselves in the defensive.The defeat of the brick favourite Trzaskovsky was not simply the sum of errors in the election run (Karol Nawrocki did not do anything peculiar either), but the consequence of fundamental incompatibility with trends and overwhelming moods in Polish society.

Third, new right will become a key actor of Polish politics. This electorate – young, well educated, but profoundly anti-systemic – will have a major impact on the future of Polish policy. His increasing political awareness and activity can supply right-wing dominance for the next decades.

Fourthly, political radicalization can become a permanent feature of the Polish political system. Considerable acceptance of extremist politicians and methods, seen in all electorates, points to the erosion of democratic and liberal norms, which are already alternatively sparsely rooted in the province. The return to average policy seems unlikely. On the left side of the political scene, the Left may begin to dispel the formation Together, which has well read the social moods and is already aware of them.

PART FOUR. fresh POLICY: CONFEDERATION OF VS TOTAL

Using the booster, or larger effort by Mentzen and Braun's electorate, we could carry out a more accurate demographic segmentation of these voters.

DEMOGRAPHY OF strategy CHANGE

Mentzen's electorate is primarily young men. 64% are male (compared to 48% in Nawrocki), and 47% are people aged 18–34 – almost 3 times more than Nawrocki (16%) and Trzaskowski (12%). The average age is approx. 28 yearswhich makes this electorate by far the youngest in Polish politics.

Equally important, they are not young people from the periphery or economically excluded. 29 percent have higher education (more than in Trzaskowski – 26 percent), and 23 percent live in large cities. It is simply a group that should theoretically be the core of the liberal-democratic centre, but to a large degree chose extremist right-wing populism.

Braun attracts older voters (average age is about 45, 26 percent is 18–34), even more educated (33% with higher education) and more urban (29% in large cities). That suggests that Polish extremist right has 2 separate demographic bases – young (Mentzen) and mature (Braun).

Relatively good education of Braun and Mentzen voters is no mistake or coincidence. Braun, who looks as if he was transferred alive from the 1930s, a typical Warsaw intelligent – a judaic endek demanding the introduction of a bench ghetto at the university for young judaic people – is praised for his intelligence, erudition, rhetorical efficiency and beautiful literary polish. Our interlocutors take this as an example of authenticity, patriotism and class.

– I have been voting for this young confederation from the beginning, called due to the fact that I think that they are going to a larger audience and will be better representatives on the global stage, but actually I besides had Grzegorz Braun in second place, due to the fact that he is besides a man, whom I think I would not be ashamed of somehow.

– For me, Braun is an educated man, 1 who knows what he's saying, and he even talks to those another politicians, he just beats them to the head, they'd gotta with a dictionary sometimes.

– And what he says is credible. You gotta give him that his erudition causes him to smooth and slow. His speeches are specially designed so he can put it all in his head.

– Well, Grzegorz Braun is educated and so on, he's a good rhetoricalist, but it seems to me that, as president, there must be a individual who knows about finances, too, due to the fact that you can talk nicely, and not necessarily then you can drive well. That's why it convinced me that [Mentzen] is the taxation advisor.

– I have a feeling Bosak will be closer to Braun than Mentzen. Braun's not afraid to say what he thinks. He may agree, he may disagree, but he's consistent, he's credible, he's insanely intelligent.

1 fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Mentzen and Braun)

NEW RIGHT

Against what is the right? She suffers the fall of a conventional household model that subjugated women and children to men. Young men are statistically little educated than women, they migrate little often, they are harder to find than they utilized to be a partner and a job. By voting for the fresh right, they see an chance to return to the comfort of past years or at least to revenge for cultural progress, which took distant a number of privileges. They so argue feminism and see progressive values in the European Union. Although they do not go to church very often, they do not like secularization, due to the fact that it means not only leaving Catholicism, but besides conventional household models.

Thanks to the boot test (additionally random to the example of Mentzen's typical voters) we were able to execute a precise interior segmentation of his electorate, revealing crucial heterogeneity here. This discovery is crucial for knowing the dynamics and possible of this political formation.

Libertarians (45%)

The largest section of the young right is libertarians – a group motivated primarily by the imagination of a extremist transformation of the Polish economy towards greater freedom of establishment. They are supporters of the drastic simplification of taxes, deregulation and the simplification of the function of the state in the economy, which see first and foremost in the Confederation tool of the social revolution.

Demographically, educated urban residents – frequently entrepreneurs, freelancers, IT and financial sector employees. In planet views, they are comparatively average and their main motivation is frustration with bureaucratic barriers and the belief that the State is hampering economical development. They believe that the minimum state will mean greater economical and moral freedom.

In the second round, this section was the most pragmatic: Okay. 65% voted for Nawrocki (in line with the promises of economical liberalisation), 20 percent on Trzaskowski (perhaps looking at a better guarantor in it that the social return of the Law and Justice will not be repeated) and 15 percent did not participate in the vote (considering selection as irrelevant to its economical priorities). This section is highly pragmatic in its calculations.

Nationalists (35%)

Second section is Nationals – a group combining support for the marketplace economy with a strong focus on identity issues, sovereign sovereignty and historical policy. Their imagination is ‘Polish road’ for development – a strong national state with a competitive marketplace economy, skeptical of the European Union, but open to global cooperation "on its own terms", whatever that means.

It's an electorate. nearest conventional right, but critical of the "socialist" aspects of the policy of the Law and Justice (social programmes, state interventionism). In the second circular 90% voted for Nawrocki, but at the same time expects from the right hand a greater determination on issues of sovereignty and national identity. On immigration, relations with the EU or historical policy are frequently more critical than mainstream PiS.

Demographically it is simply a geographically diverse group – representatives of both large cities and smaller centres. It connects them. strong cultural threat and the belief that conventional right-wing parties are besides compromised in defence of “Polish values” under force from “political correctness” and “Brussels expectations”.

Contestants (20%)

The most expressive section is Radical Contesters – a group characterised by a maximalist approach to economical freedom (often calling for the elimination of successive functions of the state) and a deep skepticism towards all forms of organised policies. A common platform for anti-system and libertarian voters is state constraints. The first sees the impact on the elite, the second see the state's interventionism in the economy.

They are liable for the most controversial environmental statements. Their ideology unites radical economical individualism with nihilistic criticism of political institutions as being inherently corrupt and ineffective.

In the second circular Okay. 60% did not participate in the voteby treating the choice between Nawrock and Trzaskowski as ‘choice between evil and evil’. The others voted in akin proportions on both main candidates.

Demographically, The youngest voters (often under the age of 25), mainly from average to large cities. Theirs. The impact on political discourse is greater than that of their number, due to its advanced social media activity and the ability to form narratives.

It's a akin planet view to the 1 in America called technolibertarianismThe symbols of which are billionaires Peter Thiel and Elon Musk. The second is the creator of the DOGE project, extremist truncation of the state (in practice spectacularly unsuccessful). They were pragmatically active with Republicans, hoping to realize their vision.

A fresh RIGHT GIVES THE HAND OF A fresh LEVEL

Understanding the phenomenon of the young right requires analysis of processes that lead to a reasonably well-educated, economically active young generation to adopt a more extremist political orientation. Our survey reveals 3 key mechanisms of this evolution.

The most crucial origin shaping the attitude of the young right hand was crisis of credibility of conventional policy. 73% of Mentzen voters expressed advanced support (answers 4+5) for the request for "authentic politicians", following Braun (76%) and Zandberg (66%), but before Trzaskowski (63%) and well before Biejat (57%).

The young right is not fundamentally different from the young left in the basic expectations of politics. Like Zandberg voters, Mentzen's electorate is looking for politicians who will “tell the truth” and “will not be part of the system”, a hallmark of extremist rhetoric and rejection of the prevailing order. The difference is this., how to identify this authenticity.

– I don't usage TikToka at all due to the fact that I don't like it, but I know they're both there [Mentzen and Braun] on TikToku doing quite a few fun with young voters. And it was amazing to me after the first round, how the results of the survey were, and it turned out that if people in the 18–29 categories were deciding, then in the second circular would be Mr. Mentzen and Mr. Zandberg.

– And this is the future that will teardrop down the 2 main political camps at the moment, and the electorate that is ageing. less and less people are utilizing television. Those who voted for Mr. Trzaskowski, TVN 24 all the time, and the another side of the Republic.

[...]

– And it's besides the fatigue of this constant butthole all our lives.

– Mr. Zandberg, for example, is very respectful of me. I remember in 2015, erstwhile he ran, he was expressive, he had the same views and he did not enter the government due to the fact that he did not get what he wanted. So I'm able to believe, even though his views to me are disgusting, nasty, but he's specified an honorable man he won't sale himself for a stool.

– Plus, he's got good PR, and he can do it online. individual would think we should consider him a horned devil. But no, due to the fact that no. due to your views, yes, but not with respect to the behaviour of one's ethics. The people who organize these events, advertising and so on, they are just young and they know how it works, how we young audiences just like.

[...] My large dream, too, is that Mr. Tusk, Mr. Kaczyński, should yet leave, due to the fact that that would have changed, too, due to the fact that they are liable for this polarization. There's quite a few valuable people on both sides. And if the main people liable for this conflict had yet gone away, then we would... There's besides many faces I've known since I was a kid, they inactive regulation for besides long.

1 fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Mentzen and Braun)

This is why conventional parties have difficulty attracting young voters. Trzaskowski is seen as a typical of the “establishment”, which disqualifies it in the eyes of a generation looking for a "real change". This is not an evaluation of the program or the competence, but emotional reaction. Therefore, all the conventional assets of Trzaskovsky did not matter, while the outraged elite problems with Nawrocki's law even played in his favour.

The second key mechanics is changing the attitude of the young generation to European integration. 69 percent of Mentzen voters support "hard defence of Polish interests in the EU" – value akin to Braun (75%) and Nawrocki (77%), but much higher than in Trzaskowski (45%) or Zandberg (43%).

We are dealing with a generational difference. While older generations remember the benefits of EU accession (funds, modernisation, freedom of travel), Young right-wing voters see European integration as a transaction – they balance profits and losses (e.g. climate policy) and restrictions – imposing “foreign values”, limiting economical sovereignty, influencing interior policies.

The same pattern includes scepticism towards aid to Ukraine (69 percent of Mentzen voters believe that “she went besides far”). This is not just isolationism or sympathy for Russia, but transactional approach – you can cooperate with another countries and nations, but “on conditions serving Polish interests” and “at Polish pace”.

The 3rd mechanics is an instrumental approach to democratic institutions. 53% of Mentzen voters agrees that "vote is only a formality". This is not a classical political apathy or a holistic rejection of democracy, but scepticism towards the effectiveness of current democratic procedures. Democracy is fine if it brings concrete benefits here and now. Hence a comparatively advanced acceptance for a "strong leader who can bend the rules" – it is not an authoritarian ideology, but frustration with slow action within the current structures, which, however, can end with authoritarianism.

These beliefs strengthen social media, which exposure the negative aspects of democratic policy (scandales, inefficiency, partying) in the absence of direct experience with non-democratic systems. For a young generation, democracy is not a historical achievement, but a tool – which can be rejected or modified if it proves inadequate to meet the challenges.

NEW LEVEL

The young right and left combine criticism of the political and social system. Zandberg reached 3.48, Biejat – 3.54 on the antisystemality index, while Mentzen – 3.82. The young generation regardless of ideological orientation is skeptical of the current functioning of Polish democracy.

Similarly on the request for "authentic politicians": Mentzen – 73%, Zandberg – 66%, Biejat – 57%. All groups want a "real change" and reject all ruling yesterday and today. Frustration due to a "false" policy is simply a common phenomenon that connects the fresh left and the fresh right.

The fresh right has an instrumental approach to democracy – treats it as a tool to accomplish goals, not a value in itself. If democratic procedures hamper the accomplishment of crucial objectives (liberalisation of the economy, defence of sovereignty, fight against corruption), they can be interpreted flexibly. ‘Effectiveness’ is more crucial than ‘procedures’.

The fresh left, in turn, is immune to calls to close ranks and common with the centre of defending democracy against populism. He thinks it's a stick to an old, corrupt order that's not coming back. The defence of this order is primarily the defence of duopol, which will not bring about left-wing ideas for voters. Adrian Zandberg refused to support Rafał Trzaskowski, which could by all means have served PiS candidate Karol Nawrock (and so to halt the restoration of the regulation of law, the implementation of at least part of the programme of the Left, in common with the programme of Together). For this he met with a wave of criticism from mainstream public opinion and praise from Andrzej Duda. He replied in the Sejm that if PiS and Confederacy regulation in Poland, the government alone would be responsible. The strategy chosen by Zandberg, consisting of extremist criticism of the government in the Sejm, helps his organization grow in polls. Although it is inactive support below the electoral threshold, it brings Together closer to power. The critic would ask for 2023 erstwhile Together could enter the government. In response, he may hear that the demands together the government coalition did not want to compose in the coalition agreement. So if the “anti-PiS” can only halt the Law and Justice on the way to power, but does not want to fulfill the demands Together, then there is no request to cry after specified a government. This is simply a rational calculation, but from a organization interest point of view. It goes along with the explanation of the political processes we describe in this report. The question remains: whether and erstwhile Together will be able to regulation and what about the period erstwhile the right will rule.

NEW POLICY: CONFEDERATION OF VS TOTAL

As far as the worldview is concerned, the left consistently receives the lowest results in all ‘right’ indexes:

• Ratio to PiS: Zandberg 2.21 vs Mentzen 3.49 (difference 1.28)
• Tough EU attitude: Zandberg 3.2 vs Mentzen 4.1 (Difference 0.89)
• Skepticism towards Ukraine: Zandberg 3,31 vs Mentzen 3,91 (difference 0.60)

Moreover, there are no divisions among the voters of Zandberg, Biejat and Senyszyn. Left voters they hesitated to vote for among the 3 left-wing candidates.

– I was considering Senishyn. little years and a small more support, so I would definitely vote for her due to the fact that she is simply a woman, in the sense of specified a show, the parent of all Poles. But I yet voted for Magda Biejat.

– I had previously been so hesitant between Biejat and Rafał Trzaskowski, but it was during the debate that she behaved, as she answered, that she began to respond more to me, so I decided to vote for her.

– Because she's a beautiful smart female who can do a lot. But I think that due to the fact that she is simply a woman, she will not get many votes, which is bad adequate in Poland.

– I was just reasoning a small bit about Zandberg the day before, but due to the fact that for me it was a character I hadn't followed before, I kind of followed my first ideas.

– Well, my choice in the first circular was, of course, red corals. Why is that? It's like I said that this individual best represents my views and at the same time can defend them in the media. [...] her answers were the most constructive of all the candidates I saw.

– I besides wondered between Biejat and Zandberg, and in the final, I voted for Senyszyn. I was besides captivated by this person, or by what he represents.

2 fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Levice)

In general, voters of leftist views about leftist divisions talk either critically or with disregard, treating them as a household quarrel. Both anticipate work and agreement.

– I feel that the left hand itself is dividing [...] that it is and will get worse. I'm afraid the government is about to fall apart. So I would, I mean, I would, yeah. I'm not happy with the state of affairs.

– There are conflicts, but I don't think there are any differences in all those parties that make up this left-wing part of the coalition, I don't think they're that large that they can't work out. And I'm besides wondering if if it was Zandberg's departure from the coalition, if it meant they'd lost the majority in the Sejm, I don't think it would have happened. So I kind of get the feeling that as much as they can argue, they fight, but any alliance has to remain.

2 fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Levice)

PART FIVE. With whom the fresh DUOPOL would enter a coalition

Confederate supporters were asked who the organization should enter a coalition with in the future Sejm. The supporters of the another parties were asked to accept the coalition with the Confederacy. Among the Confederate sympathizers, we have 3 distinctly different groups with different strategical visions (and demographic profiles).

There are no volunteers for the Coalition for the Conference and the civilian Coalition.

The first group are supporters of the coalition with the Civic Coalition (17 percent of all responses “yes”). This is the youngest part of the Confederate electorate – as much as 55 percent are people aged 18–34, while the average for the full Confederate is 39 percent. This group is besides little dominated by men than another factions. In the second round, 1 in 4 voters in this tiny group transferred their support to Trzaskowski – the highest percent of all Confederate segments. So this is 39 out of 17 percent of Confederate supporters, i.e. 6 percent of all Confederates.

A CONFEDERATION BETWEEN WRITING? POSSIBLE

The second group are supporters of the coalition with Law and Justice (35 percent of the consequence “yes”). In this group, as many as 72 percent are men; at the same time, it is the best-educated section of the Confederate electorate (35 percent with higher education, compared to 28 percent in the total). In the second circular of the presidential election, as much as 83 percent of this group supported Nawrocki – the highest percent of all the segments analysed. A affirmative attitude towards the PiS (4.02) and a peculiarly strong opposition to European integration (4.51 – the highest value) is crucial for this group. This group sees itself as the continuation and radicalisation of the policy of the Law and Justice, peculiarly in the sovereign and identity dimensions.

Do not enter the coalition. RETURN THE STOLE!

The third, but most many group are opponents of any dominant party, supporters of early elections (48 percent of "yes" responses). These people see the elections in 2027 as an chance for the announced "turn of the table": destabilizing the old duopol and forcing deep changes. However, they are much closer to the Law and Justice: in the second round, 72 percent of the group supported Nawrocki.

You think it's better, how is it that the Prime Minister is from another camp, the president from another camp?

– It's best due to the fact that they gotta respect each other... So a small bit of this motive for voting on Nawrocki may have meant that it was better to have a balance.

– I mean, I voted, looking forward to it, due to the fact that I believe in the Confederacy coalition with the PiS, which is inevitable, due to the fact that otherwise the Confederate cannot stand by and criticize all the time, must take work for it eventually.

Deal with the PiS? What do you think?

– Well, I want I did. due to the fact that PiS, Kaczyński is specified a prominent politician, not to say that as long as he is alive, this PiS will proceed due to the fact that it works, they bought people, they are 2 parties, or PiS and PO, and the Confederacy should alternatively agree with them.

What if she wanted to deal with the Coalition?

– That's not gonna happen. No way. I think present they're gonna try... that the Confederate will take over the PiS electorate.

– The right-wing PiS party, well, it's been different with the right-wing one, but I can imagine the government of the PiS with the Confederate, I can't imagine the government of the Confederate with the Platform due to the fact that it's going to end the way Self-defense and the LPR ended erstwhile they tried coalition with the PiS.

– I wouldn't want the Confederacy to regulation with the PiS, but I'm a realist and I know there can't be another deal.

1 fgi_politics_02.06_Warsaw (Mentzen and Braun)

PiS sympathizers supporting a coalition with the Confederation (81%) They're mostly older men. Only 13 percent are young, aged 18–34. It is simply a group with strong conservative views, a very affirmative attitude towards the PiS (4.35) and a decisively anti-European attitude (4.40). The scale of Nawrocki's support in the second circular (87%) confirms a strong attachment to the thought of a common right-wing political camp.

Opponents of the coalition with the Confederate in PiS (19%) present a completely different profile. They are primarily young women: as many as 34 percent are 18-34-year-olds (difference +21 percent points compared to coalition supporters), and men represent only 34 percent of this group. It is besides a group with moderately affirmative attitudes towards the PiS (4.05) and a little extremist attitude towards the European Union (3.72).

The volunteers are ready to break the coalition with the confederation to prevent the writing from being allowed into power.

Supporters of the coalition with the Confederate in the KO electorate (63%) mostly represent the core of the KO electorate. Their demographic profile is small different from that of KO, and The key feature is simply a negative attitude towards the Law and Justice (2,33 on a scale of 1–5, selecting the option: The allegations of breaking democracy by law and justice were exaggerated and served as a political struggle) with a average relation to European integration (3.44). This is simply a group for which the most crucial political goal is to prevent the Law and Justice, even at the price of hard alliances.. For sympathizers, the Confederation remains an ideologically alien group with which an alliance is possible only as the least evil, as part of the "cordon strategy" towards the Law and Justice.

Opponents of the coalition with the Confederate (37%) are women, younger women and more left-wing KO sympathizers.

– I can't imagine it, I can't imagine a future like this for my children. Trzaskowski said he would fight for these women's rights to be reinstated, right? I can't imagine erstwhile Mentzen erstwhile said it couldn't be that individual who was raped is rude and that she wants to take out the baby, so no... Great, have his seven-year-old daughter raped and it'll be great.

But I'll ask you again. I kind of want to face it, don't I? We have a situation where half of this society is women. Even the greater part is women. And among men, almost everyone has a wife, a girlfriend. quite a few them have daughters. And how is it that they choose candidates who support specified oppressive solutions and do not support minimum liberalisation of rules?

– Look, my husband – we live under the same roof, we both think about building a household – my husband voted for Mentzen. In the second round, I don't know who he voted for due to the fact that I was even afraid to ask him. Seriously, due to the fact that if he'd said that I'd leave the house. The most basic argument is about these women's rights, abortion and so on. I'm saying, look, if there's a situation where I'm going to die, but this... really, this man doesn't get to it.

[...]

Good, 'cause you said you had a boy 18, right? I got one. And he voted?

– Yeah.

– Do we know who?

–Yeah.

Will you? Do you know who that is?

– In the first circular he voted for Holovnia and in the second circular he voted for Trzaskowski.

Did you talk about it yourself?

– We talked. We talked due to the fact that he had a superb thought that he would vote for Mentzen.

– And then my dad said, from now on, you're paying for your studies. [laughs]

– No, no, no. We invited his girlfriend to tea. And we started talking in front of her about what Mentzen is proposing about women and the abortion he has. And she, as she heard it, was looking at him, looking at him, looking at him... And I think it got to him. [laughs]

4 fgi_politics_3.06_Gdansk (Trzaskowski)

The coalition preferences of supporters are interesting New Left and Total lots. They can only be discussed at the most general level, due to the fact that comparatively tiny numbers of observations prevent in-depth analysis. The Biejat, Zandberg and Senyszyn electorate barely exceeds 10 percent. The electorate of the fresh right is twice as big, so it is easier to examine it on a typical group of Poles. But the fact that the new, and much more old and fresh left is far further to power is not a question.

Despite all the differences between the 2 left-wing groups, their poll voters have rather akin views on coalition scenarios. Most let coalition with KO (67 percent sympathizers Together and as many as 83 percent supporters of fresh Left).Much little rejects the imagination of a coalition agreement with the PiS or the Confederation (11–13% of supporters of this maneuver). This is consistent with the behaviour of the electorates of both parties in the second circular of the presidential election.

Of course, many possibly turbulent months stay until the elections, and organization leaders will decide on a possible future political deal. But if they were to follow the voice of their constituents, according to the state discussed above, it would appear that the right would have a decisive advantage.

CONCLUSION

So criticized in all ways, duopol in itself is nothing controversial in democracy. The circumstantial duo PO-PiS is criticized, not the division itself. The processes we describe in this study show that there is already a fresh duo: a fresh right and a fresh left. Many times the fall of Kaczyński and Tusk has been foretold, and although it has not yet come, this does not change the fact that it will come. Most likely, either in the upcoming parliamentary elections, or in subsequent Jarosław Kaczyński and Donald Tusk will no longer be the main players in Polish politics.

On October 15, 2023, a red card got the Law and Justice and lost power after 8 years of demonstrating what it could do. On June 1, 2025, a red card got anti-PiS. The election lost the favourite of the ruling coalition, and 2 weeks earlier the candidates of the individual members forming it. They all noted disappointing results. The winner was a candidate supported by the Law and Justice, but completely out of politics.

In the polls, the political center is shredded and lost, as a condition for Donald Tusk's government. Neither the PiS nor the KO grow. There is no indication that PSL, Poland 2050 or Left may reverse their downward trend. A vote of assurance for the government and a discussion after it showed that the government is planning changes mainly related to improving communication and the continuation of the programme. He tries to cut off right-wing oxygen by closing the borders for immigration and the deregulation program. However, it does not seem to be a success, since voters are so eager to change the full strategy and extremist reforms.

The government's agenda is doomed to a number of failures anyway, since the fresh president will be primarily focused on obstruction alternatively than cooperation with Tusk's office. Karol Nawrocki has a choice and will be able to play either the increase in PiS quotations, or the increase in Confederate quotations, or to patronize the coalition of both forces. A novelty is the Crown of Grzegorz Braun, which allows even more to spread on the election phase of the right, and especially the fresh right.

Donald Tusk's government needs a miracle to reverse the negative trend. If the center continues to shred and subsequent parties are coming under the electoral threshold, the Civic Coalition may effort to swallow them and take over their electorate. Only a fewer spectacular successes – infrastructure or guaranteeing social transfers, can give the government wind to sail.

The Confederacy will play on overall criticism and disintegration of government. The same will be done by Zandberg together. Subsequent elections – either accelerated or not – can give power to the PiS coalition with the fresh right. But as well the fresh right can leave the Law and Justice "burnt" – let it form a government, but a number 1 whose problems will strengthen the Confederation and give it dominance in subsequent elections. Similarly, the failure of the old duopol will effort to discount Together. And so in 1 or 2 turnovers, the Confederate will be in power, and together he will gather left-wing voters around him and fight for the function of 1 of the main opposition parties. The tiny number of left-wing voters and the tiny programming flexibility of the organization may not be enough. Only the transition to a very pragmatic policy could let Together to become a major or 1 of the main forces for opposition.

Then, however, after a partially dismantled democratic-liberal order, which we know, only memory remains.

Key findings of the report

1. Nawrocki's triumph was the consequence of a mass consolidation of the right around the common candidate. The key to success was the transfer of votes from the Confederacy – as many as 34 percent of the votes cast in the second circular at Nawrocki came from voters Mentzen and Braun. Nawrocki gained 87 percent Mentzen voters and 93 percent Braun supporters, while Trzaskowski managed to convince only 13 percent Confederate electorate. Without this consolidation, the right would be doomed to failure.

2. Political radicalism has become the norm in Polish society. On the scale of radicalism, voters of all right-wing candidates achieved very advanced values (above 4 on a scale of 1–5), but even the electorate of Trzask and left-wings achieved advanced results. Acceptance for "radical politicians" and discontent with the deficiency of "authentic" politicians became widespread. However, the right hand managed to channel these moods much more effectively than the center and left.

3. Acceptance for authoritarianism has increased in all electorates. All groups of voters show support for "a strong leader who can bend the rules" – even the voters of Trzaskowski reached 3.28 on this scale (above neutrality). Only the left (especially Zandberg's electorate with 2.85) remains below the acceptance threshold for authoritarian solutions. Democracy as a strategy lost value in the eyes of Poles.

4. Anti-system attitudes are almost common. Regardless of political orientation, the majority of voters agree that "the current political strategy is so flawed that it cannot be repaired". The percent of voters who agree with this message ranges from 56% among Biejat voters to 68% in Braun's electorate. The difference is not about the strength of criticism of the system, but about the desired solutions.

5. The negative run had a counterproductive effect. The disclosure of subsequent Nawrocki scandals paradoxically strengthened his position as an anti-system candidate. Among the young voters, the boomerang effect worked – besides aggressive criticism triggered a defensive reaction. Revealing embarrassing facts from the past of a PiS candidate caused the effect of victimizing and embarrassing voters, alternatively of discouraging them. Nawrocki became a symbol of popular opposition to the elite, and the scandals only confirmed its "authenticity" as a man outside the establishment.

6. Higher narrations as a triggering origin to the right. Commentators and supporters of Trzaskovsky appealed to superior narratives and contempt for the PiS candidate and his electorate. The awareness of this classical movie mobilised Nawrocki supporters and all who did not identify with the “Polish salon”. any divided the nation into Poles and morons, others into patriots and traitors – the second won.

7. Social polarization of the town-town remains a fundamental division. The real origin of political polarization is the unburdened post-earthly division between the city and the village, the elites and the people. Until liberal governments find a way to build people's assurance in the elite through a program of deep social reforms, any specified government will fall sooner or later. Political polarization is only a derivative of this deeper social wound.

8. The fresh right is primarily young, educated men from cities. 47 percent of Mentzen voters are 18–34-year-olds, 64 percent are men, 29 percent have higher education, and 23 percent live in large cities. It is not young people from the periphery or economically excluded – it is simply a group that should theoretically be the backbone of a liberal-democratic center, but chose extremist right-wing populism.

9. There is simply a fresh dual: Confederation vs Together. The fresh right and the fresh left combine strategy criticism, search for "authentic" politicians and frustration with the current order. They disagree in how they identify authenticity and what solutions to systemic problems they see, but both formations represent a generational change in Polish politics. The conventional division of the PO-PiS can be replaced by a fresh conflict axis between the extremist right and the extremist left.

10. The Confederate electorate is internally divided into 3 factions. Libertarians (45%) are motivated by the imagination of extremist economical transformation, nationalists (35%) place emphasis on identity issues and sovereignty, and protesters (20%) are extremist anti-systemists. Each group has different motivations, but they are united by disappointment with the establishment. This heterogeneity can be both strength and weakness of formation.

11. Most electorates are ready for different coalitions. 81 percent of PiS sympathizers support the coalition with the Confederation. Among the supporters of KO, 63% are ready to support the alliance with the Confederacy, in order to prevent the Law and Justice. Among the voters of the Confederate itself, 35 percent support the PiS coalition, 17 percent from the KO, and 48 percent like to flip the table and force early elections. These preferences indicate a possible reconfiguration of the Polish political scene. The right has a definite advantage in possible coalition arrangements, which could mean dominance for the next decades.

**

This study presents the results of a post-election poll conducted after Karol Nawrocki's triumph in the 2025 presidential election. The survey aimed at knowing the mechanisms of right-wing victory, analysing electoral flows and characterising the electorates of individual candidates, as well as possible implications for future political dynamics and prospects for subsequent parliamentary elections (2027).

Methodology and characteristics of the test example are found in the electronic version of the study available here.

* Oh, my God *

The implementation of investigation – a survey, group interviews, as well as the publication of the study was financed by the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Warsaw. The authors are liable for their statements contained in this publication. The views expressed do not gotta full agree with the position of the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Warsaw.