Chega beats the ceiling: a historical consequence in the election. The Democratic Alliance wins, but without the majority

The early parliamentary elections in Portugal, held on Sunday, will be long in national history. For the first time in decades, no group can talk of a certain mandate to rule, and at the same time, a strong 3rd political force — Cheg's party, which has not only tripled its support in 5 years but has besides aligned itself with the falling Socialist Party.

At the same time, the winner — the centre - right Democratic Alliance (AD) — although he increased his possession, did not gain an independent majority. Portugal is facing a political crossroads today, and Cheg's triumph is simply a signal that a large part of society expects a extremist change.

National-conservative Chega (forward), led by dynamic and expressive André Ventura, obtained 22.6% of the vote, which translated into 58 seats in the 230-member Assembly of the Republic. This is an increase of up to 8 seats compared to erstwhile elections, erstwhile the organization had 50 seats and 18.1% of support. In 2019, Chega had only 1 messenger, and present — almost a 4th of the full house. Ventura described this consequence as a "breaking moment", claiming that “the time of the political monopoly is over”. Indeed, for the last half century in Portugal, 2 camps have dominated the political scene: socialists and centre-rights.

In his comment after announcing the results, Chega's leader stressed that his organization was "the only actual typical of the common Portuguese". His run was focused on combating immigration, pathologies in the social system, and above all ubiquitous corruption — a problem that plunged 2 more governments in just 3 years. Ventura stated that he was going to “press” the Democratic Alliance and that Chega would no longer be just a “voice of opposition” but besides a “alternative to rule”.

Importantly, the organization attracted voters not only from the right, but besides erstwhile socialist sympathizers. In traditionally leftist regions specified as Alentejo and part of the Lisbon agglomeration, Chega achieved amazingly good results. The increase in support was peculiarly prominent among voters with lower incomes, lower education and provincial residents. The organization took advantage of social discontent and increasing frustration towards political position quo, offering a simple, emotional message.

Democratic Alliance — A triumph Without Perpetual Power?

The winner of the election was the centre-right coalition of the Democratic Alliance (Aliança Democrática, AD), led by current Prime Minister Luís Montenegro. The coalition, composed of the Social Democratic organization (PSD), the CDS – People's organization and tiny local groups, obtained 32.7% of the vote, which gave it 89 seats — 8 more than in erstwhile elections. Although this consequence gives AD the moral right to form a government, it lacks 27 seats to the independent majority. Furthermore, Montenegro already ruled out any coalition from Chega on election night, which drastically limits its political maneuvers.

Prime Minister Montenegro, in his speech to his supporters, announced the continuation of the course for "rebuilding assurance in the institutions", the improvement of investments and the fight against the budget deficit. He besides stressed that AD has the ambition to supply Portugal with "goods and social justice", but does not intend to compromise with "populists". This message was a clear signal to Cheg and announced that cooperation between these parties — at least officially — was excluded.

The problem, however, is that with specified a divided parliament, the number government may have serious difficulties in pushing through any applicable law. If the AD does not get the silent support of at least part of the Cheg MPs or the center party, he is threatened with legislative paralysis — and this could rapidly lead to another crisis.

Socialists at the bottom – large loss

The biggest failure of these elections is the Socialist organization (PS), which obtained 23% of the vote and besides 58 seats — the same as Cheg, but 20 little than in erstwhile elections. This is the worst score of the organization since 1987 and at the same time a spectacular journey by the PS leader, Pedro Nuno Santos, who was considered a politician with advanced national possible a year ago. After the results were announced, Santos announced his resignation, emphasizing in an emotional speech that “the fight is not over”, but “it must be led by individual new”.

The PS has lost support in almost all age groups and regions, especially against the background of corruption scandals that destroyed the reputation of its erstwhile governments. Left parties (including Bloco de Esquerda and the Communist Party) besides fell little than expected — Bloco fell from 19 to 13 seats, and Communists from 6 to 4.

How did Parliament change?

This is what the power balance looks like after the election:

• AD (Democratic Soyote): 89 mandates (+8)
• Socialist organization (PS): 58 mandates (−20)
• Chega: 58 mandates (+8)
• Left block: 13 mandates (−6)
• Liberal Initiative: 9 mandates (not amended)
• Communist organization (PCP-PEV): 4 mandates (−2)
• Other/Independent: 1 mandate

Chega and AD gained 8 tickets each, and socialists and the Block reported clear losses. This shows a clear right turn on the Portuguese political scene — while the voters are tired of the long-term dominance of socialists and their subsequent promises.

In the fresh parliamentary hand, no of the organization has the comfort of power, and Cheg – despite the AD declaration of non-cooperation – can act as a tongue in weight. If not now, then in budget voting, social laws, improvement projects – Chega has a chance to truly influence state policy.

This is simply a major change in Portugal, where for decades political stableness has been based on the rotational power of 2 large parties. Ventura now announces: "We are no longer just going to shout at the opposition jury — we are going to be jointly liable for Portugal's future." Although AD officially distances itself from Cheg, in practice it may turn out that without their support it is impossible to rule.

The Portuguese want change.

Turnout was 64.1% — average but solid. The voters have clearly shown that they anticipate not only technocratic solutions, but strong leadership, authenticity and transparency. The parties that do not respond to these expectations lose. Chega, regardless of controversy, can effectively read social emotions.

Portugal is present faced with a choice: whether to hold the position quo in the fresh edition or to follow the way of deep transformation. Ventura and his supporters are convinced that the country needs this another way. And although they have not yet reached for power, they are 1 step closer than always before.