Both lefties were positively amazed in this campaign

When she started this year's presidential campaign, the left-wing voter could only hope that it would end quickly, and the left-wing voter would not pass the Blame again as the results of Magdalena Ogórek in 2015 (2.38 percent) or Robert Biedron in 2020 (2.22 percent). It seemed that as many as 5 candidates would fight for a tiny pool of left-wing voices, any of which will already flow in the first circular to Trzaskowski: Magdalena Biejat, Joanna Senyszyn, Piotr Szumlewicz, Waldemar Witkowski from the Labour Union, and yet Adrian Zandberg.

Today, moments before the end of the campaign, the moods on the left side are completely different. Both parliamentary lefts – the government and organization Together – can be satisfied with a good campaign. The polls give hope not only that both Magda Biejat and Zandberg will double the results of Biedron and Cucumber, but besides that the combined consequence of both can exceed 10%. If you number 1–2 percent for Joanna Senyszyn, the left may in full get the best consequence in the presidential election since the start of Grzegorz Napieralski, who won 13.68 percent of the vote in 2010. It would be a surprise akin to Die Linke's unexpected success in the Bundestag election in February.

Atomic populism

If this surprise actually occurs, the left will owe not only its good work in the campaign, but besides 2 another factors: the weakness of the Trzaskovsky campaign, which, since becoming a candidate of the KO, has done absolutely no motion towards a more progressive electorate, has done quite a few it to the conservative and free marketplace electorate; and disillusion both the governments of the current coalition and the quality of the right-wing opposition.

This second phenomenon is mainly gained by Zandberg and his campaign. Unlike Biejat, Zandberg put this year on a message addressed to voters who want to show the current government at least yellow, if not a red card, and are not willing to extend it's credit.

As 1 can justice after attendance at the last candidates' rallies Together, his polling maxims, the climate surrounding his run on social media – this strategy hit its niche. If Zandberg actually brings his polling maxima on Sunday, it will mean that he actually managed to scope voters who not only did not vote on October 15 on the coalition committee of the left, but at all on the left. frequently due to the fact that the current elections are the first in which they can vote. In Opinia poll 24 for “Newsweek” Zandberg has 20 percent support in group 18–29 and all indicates that it will focus his support.

The usage of Hołownia as a candidate “outside the system”, the deficiency of a Kukiz candidate, yet the run mistakes of Sławomir Mentzen helped Zandberg in reaching this electorate. The Confederate's interview in Channel Zero may have been crucial and the declaration that in its perfect planet studios are paid – which, in a situation where it depends so heavy on the young, frequently studying electorate is the worst thing to say in the election campaign.

Zandberg would not have taken this chance if it had not been for a good, ingenious campaign, capable of flooding the public sphere with memes about a "powerful Dane". Song I vote for Adrian, for It's surely the most memorable cultural artifact made in this year's election. besides interesting was the presentation of the candidate together. Zandberg did not change his views to human rights or redistribution, erstwhile asked about progressive taxes or LGBT+ laws, he said what he always said. At the same time, this was not the focus of the campaign. What can be remembered mainly from it is the promise of “Polish from atom and silicon” and the outrage at “coritarianism”. These slogans referred to 2 emotions, with which the left had a problem in the past: first anti-establishment, second aspirational. In addition, this aspiration was more profiled under the “CPK electorate” and little under the imagination “we want Scandinavian social democracy at home”. Zandberg and his run reached for a patriotic emotion, referring not so much to the abstract imagination of a good, just social state, but to the desire that Poland here and now become truly strong and fair.

Interestingly, this was besides accompanied by a clear “recasculinisation” of the message – in the context of respective erstwhile campaigns by the left. It is not only about reaching for postulates circulating in the environments of men's rights defenders, but about the full image of Zandberg as a giant, a Viking, a "president-woodman". All of this, of course, was highly ironic, but this irony was besides a way to convey the emotion and longing that the left had avoided in its communication so far.

If he were to characterize Zandberg's message from this run in the shortest possible summary, I would describe it as "atomic populism". The Candidate Together was able to be populist at the same time – in terms of the basis of the message on the dichotomy of the “orbiters” and “weary of them Poles” – and substantive in his aspirational message. due to the fact that in the context of the program's infertility and deficiency of visions of the main competitors, the imagination of "Polish from atom and silicon", inscribed in a wide diagnosis of modern geopolitics and civilizational transformations, could sound very substantive.

Flag Effect

It's hard to tell erstwhile Zandberg's run was surprised. It began from the beginning very well, and with each week the momentum grew. Against this background, the Biejat run looked weak for a long time. This was besides due to the fact that fresh Left candidate had a much harder task in this run than Zandberg. It is easier, especially in the presidential election, to run in contravenes to everyone than to explain his achievements in government, which has so far not been able to fulfill many crucial promises to his constituents. Especially erstwhile you're a younger partner, frequently having problem pushing through your own key demands.

Achievements of the left in government – widow's pension, free Christmas Eve, increased ceremony allowance – although crucial have limited electoral coverage. Either they scope a reasonably limited group of voters, or they make besides small changes to build on them specified political capital as 500+. While Zandberg developed a imagination of a far-reaching change—not having to worry that shortly he would actually face the question of how to bring it into reality – Biejat tried to defend a more evolutionary approach, a policy based on a difficult, frequently frustrating negotiation of insignificant changes.

The crucial minute for Biejat's run was the second debate in Horses and the action with the rainbow flag. From that minute on, Biejat's run truly moved, which at the end began to translate into good polls. If the fresh Left candidate is not overestimated in them, the staff may be satisfied, even if – with the support, for example, at the level of 5 percent – the candidate will bring support somewhat lower than Zandberg.

Between Biejat and Zandberg there are fundamentally no noticeable programme differences but one, present for the left most important: whether it is worth sticking to the Tusk government or whether it is essential to decision on to a strong opposition. This difference translated into a different kind of communication for both campaigns. This fresh Left candidate was free from populist emotion, appealed to pragmatism, the necessity to recognise political realities, politics as the art of making good, tiny changes. Zandberg, after Jarosław Kaczyński, said to his voters: “Enough with leftist imposibilism” or behind Mickiewicz, “measure your forces on intent, not intention according to strength.” Biejat responded to this “let’s start acting like adults.” As can be expected, just as Zandberg will have the summit of support in the electorate of 30-, so Biejat in a small older, for which Zandberg's political maximism run can be little convincing and even sound naive.

Biejat was able to present in this run as a competent, pragmatic politician, clearly speaking on the side of certain values. It can so become an alternate to progressive coalition voters on October 15, which the Trzask run has not convinced, and who do not want to delete the current government yet.

What's next?

At the same time, it is hard to say that both leftwings will introduce any fresh ideas to the public debate this year. However, we managed to fight the space for left-wing communication, to decision issues specified as ideas on left-wing housing policy closer to where social common sense is located.

Both lefts clearly marked their differences, but apart from the poorly visible to the average electorate the "change of courtesy" of both parties on social media, it did not take the form that could deter people from both candidates. So the divided may be good for the left. At least in this election. What's next?

If Biejat and Zandberg show good results, the left will have 2 leaders from a generation of 40-year-olds – so young for Polish conditions – "built" more than any leftist politician for a long time. And if Trzaskowski wins, then this political capital can be multiplied in the early elections for president of the capital.

The key decision will be whether the left is to run from 1 list in the next parliamentary elections. Zandberg's score above 5%, especially if he clearly wins against Biejat, increases the chances of this scenario. Together, however, it may find it hard to keep a young, mostly anti-system electorate in the long run. The division, which worked in the presidential election, does not necessarily should be in parliamentary elections – but with the discussion of scenarios for these elections let us wait until the end of the current campaign.

There's inactive a fewer sentences to compose about the Senishyn campaign. Its aim was to undermine Biejat's run and strike the Black One's leadership on the left, with which the professor, like part of the old SLD staff, is conflicted. However, it is not seen that Senyszyn has been peculiarly harmful to Biejat, but she has appeared in this run as a sympatheticly eccentric candidate of the 3rd line. As another left-wing voice in the debates, she turned the pitch left, which mostly helped alternatively than hindered the left.