On February 24, 2022, we will remember as the most crucial date of the year. It is no wonder that on that day, the Russian military started a alleged peculiar operation against Ukraine and it was the largest operation in Europe since planet War II.
The outbreak of war has been in the air since 2014. Russia, in consequence to the overthrow of the legally elected president Viktor Yanukovych In Kiev, Crimea annexed, and in the east region, known as Donbas, pro-Russian riots broke out, in which most of the population there demanded autonomy. Subsequently, the Donetsk People's Republic and Lugansk People's Republic were proclaimed in this area, which was recognized by Moscow just before the outbreak of the war, and then, already in the course of the fighting, accepted the annexation of both territories to Russia.
These are crucial events, due to the fact that after the war, they correctly specify the Kremlin's strategy. It is simply a land connection to the Crimean Peninsula, isolated from Russian territories. This was succeeded by Russian forces in the first phase of the war, even though the Ukrainian army stopped Russian units in the Kharkiv area.
From that minute on, the war took on a very changing character. The Russians managed to keep the ‘eastern terrestrial corridor’, i.e. they achieved the first objective. At the same time they had to retreat in respective places, and if they besides wanted to occupy Kiev according to the first plans, this thought failed. In many ways, things did not turn out as Moscow originally imagined. Thus, for example, in the spring of northern Ukraine, military activity was reduced, at the same time a lasting fight in the south, and the Russians yet occupied Mariupol, it was an crucial victory.
Officially, 1 of the Russian targets was denazification of Ukraine. To realize the situation better, we must go back to planet War II. Let us begin with a customized which is not understood by many Western journalists and has survived since russian times that in Moscow young spouses, immediately after the sacramental “yes” has been said, rush to Alexander's Garden at the ft of the Kremlin and lay flowers on the grave of an unknown soldier. This is not understood in the West due to the fact that newlyweds go to meet death on the happiest day of their lives.
But according to Russian perception they meet life due to the fact that they thank and express gratitude to those who have given their lives so that they can be born and married. triumph in planet War II became part of Russian identity.
And what have the Russians seen in Ukraine since 2014? Public monuments are erected for state money Stepana Banderywho created the Ukrainian Insurgency Army (UPA) during the Nazi business of Ukraine. The military formation, steeped in Nazi ideology, committed regular genocide on all cultural groups. For example, in the summertime of 1943 120-130 1000 Poles were killed in Volyn, the intent of UPA was the full extermination of the Polish number in Ukraine.
Their favourite method of execution was cutting heads off children, old people, women. Perverse brutality should not be amazing to consider that Bandera, who was 159 centimeters tall, fragile figure and mediocre health, was very frustrated with his physical abilities. As a child, he tortured cats to death in front of his classmates, hoping to gain prestige. UPA extended the massacre to another nationalities, including Armenians, Czechs and even Ukrainians helping Poles. peculiar attention should be paid to hunting Bandera for the judaic population, with which they wanted to gain “points” from the Germans.
In 2016, the Polish Sejm considered the events in Volyn to be genocide, but as regards unconditional support for today's Ukraine, 1 should ask in Warsaw. 1 thing is certain that on the first of January, Bandera's birthday, Ukrainian neo-Nazis will proceed to celebrate a parade with torches and we can be certain that neither Brussels, nor Washington, nor even Warsaw, will say a bad word for all of this.
An crucial question for the result of the fighting is to what degree Russian troops are supported by the civilian population of Ukraine. As of 2014, the open extremist nationalist Ukrainian propaganda and the intimidation of Russian and pro-Russian Ukrainians following in its footsteps made sympathy for the Kremlin very reserved for understandable reasons. The situation is well characterized by the fact that in the 2012 election pro-Russian forces scored a full of 44 percent, and in 2019 only 16.
The allegation of cooperation with Russia may consequence in a fine or up to 3 to 12 years in prison. Betrayal is more serious, threatened by punishment to 15 years in prison. However, it is very hard to specify the concept of cooperation. Today, too, those who exchanged fresh eggs, milk with Russians for canned foods, for example, are condemned. In many cases this meant the endurance of the civilian population, due to the fact that during the summertime period, due to a series of power outages, it was hard to store food and the Russians utilized fresh food.
But behind all this is instinctive fear.. We must return to planet War II again. After the fighting ended, anyone who lived under German business had this fact recorded on their individual evidence. Stalin felt that anyone who did not cooperate with the Germans was dying, so those who survived collaborated. All of this had terrible consequences for this population, many were killed, others were imprisoned, but those who survived the repression turned their lives into hell. He barely got a permanent job, there was no further education, he couldn't even apply for housing. Due to these negative historical experiences and fear of the expected retaliation, the Ukrainian population is afraid of expressing pro-Russian sympathy due to the fact that it does not know what next day will look like if the front line goes back and the Ukrainians return to the territory occupied by Russia.
With respect to the full situation in Ukraine, we must mention to the relation between Washington and Kiev. Zelenski late visited the American capital. This was the first abroad journey of the president of Ukraine since the outbreak of the war. The visit to the White home did not bring much new, but it is worth noting that a large part of Republicans, as well as respective democratic politicians, publically expressed discontent with Zelenski's demands and besides brought to the surface conflicts of interest.
According to a conservative writer Ben Shapiro Ukrainian and American objectives are no longer the same. Shapiro believes that Kiev is only curious in pushing Russia out of Ukraine, including Crimea.
In contrast, the United States is curious in maintaining the power of deterrence of NATO, preventing Russian escalation and resisting China, says Shapiro. In another words, the United States has achieved its goal, Russia will not be able to influence global events as a consequence of the war, will not stand in the way of Washington, and so the Moscow-Pekin axis would not make sense.
On the another hand, Ukrainian targets are unrealistic. No 1 can seriously think that Russia in any arrangement will resign from Crimea and the “eastern corridor” along with Donbas. All this would be possible only if Ukraine had regained these territories. Although Kiev announces the triumph all half hour, Ukraine suffers dense losses. But let's look at the numbers.
The Russian economy is in good shape, with a budget deficit of 2.5 percent, while the failure of Ukraine's economy is almost 10 times greater. This besides means that Moscow is able to finance the war itself, while Kiev is incapable to do so. Ukraine needs 5 billion dollars a period just to manage the state, pay, pensions, another benefits, to operate infrastructure. The full thing is covered by the West.
Ukraine uses as much ammunition within a period as it was launched on the full east Front, 3,000 kilometres long during planet War II. At the highest of the fighting, Ukraine launched 60-90 1000 dense artillery missiles a month. At the same time for this ammunition, NATO's monthly production capacity is 16,000 units. besides in the case of Russia, not everything is right with the supply of ammunition, but let's not forget, especially in the light of the large offensive that is presently ongoing, that Moscow is self-sufficient and most likely managed to increase its ammunition production capacity in the last 10 months. If Ukraine does not receive supplies of ammunition from the West only for a week, it can end the war.
And this minute will come sooner or later, not due to the deficiency of western money, but due to the fact that it is besides late to increase NATO's ammunition production capacity respective times. Ukraine's already lost this war, they just forgot to tell her.
Peter G. White
photo izvietia.ru
Behind: Magyar Hirlap
