The Russians at Bachmut will repeat the destiny of the German army at Stalingrad
Russian troops, contrary to all propaganda declarations, cannot proceed to decision beyond Bachmut while Ukraine's Armed Forces gain the advantage – believes Alexander Musienko
Bachmut fortress has been defending himself against a Russian invader for 300 days. At that time, the aggressor Russia, as a consequence of continuous fire, left the erstwhile flourishing city in ruins. The Armed Forces of Ukraine proceed to keep positions in the western part of Bachmut and gradually begin to advance on flanks, without giving the Russians a chance to go beyond the city limits, to the peaceful front cities of the Donetsk Oblast.
In conversation with Glavred Alexander Musienko , the head of the Center for Military Legal investigation , explained why it is so crucial for the Armed Forces to keep the city under fire control, whether the Russians could retreat their troops from Bachmut and what processes in the Russian Federation could origin the public to lose Bachmut.
Can you summarize any results of the conflict of Bachmut? What did she show you during that time?
We can only summarize the intermediate results, due to the fact that the conflict is not over and it continues, but we can tell what follows. Firstly, Russia failed as planned to set traps for Ukrainian troops. The thought of the Russian Federation was to lure and draw our reserves, as well as to bind our forces closely towards Bachmut so that we could not prepare the reserves and conduct preparations for the counteroffensive. And in general, if you don't put it down, it'll halt the counteroffensive. We failed due to the fact that Ukrainian reserves are forming, which will participate in the counteroffensive, and our partners are helping us.
Secondly, Russia suffered dense losses in this battle. The Primogyn itself admits to losing at least 20 000 "vagners". I think he's understated it due to the fact that the losses could have been larger, and in peculiar we have information that these losses are at least 30,000, and that's just Wagner. This means that the losses are advanced both among regular Russian soldiers and among the ‘ Wagner’ terrorists, which is besides noticeable.
Another point we can state is that Russian troops, despite all propaganda statements, cannot proceed to decision beyond Bahmcut. They are located in the city and do not make offensive activities, and besides begin to lose advantage on the flanks. On the contrary, Ukrainian forces gain this advantage and push the Russians away. Therefore, now Bachmut is increasingly turning into a trap for the occupiers.
What margin must Russia gotta keep in the position it presently occupies if, as you said, it loses its advantage?
It all depends on how intensely and effectively our forces will decision forward. Now we see movement on flanks, Ukrainian troops succeed, but it is rather hard due to the fact that the enemy holds his positions and must fight him. A fewer dozen, hundreds of meters, but the work continues.
Why is this a Russian trap? due to the fact that they can't hold these positions and leave Bachmut. The "Wagnerians" of Prigozhyn will leave, and most likely regular Russian troops will enter. They simply cannot retreat due to the fact that they have already announced to their listeners that they have taken Bachmut. And then what to say that they will leave him?! That's why they'll stay there. And then it's besides a trap for the Russian Federation, due to the fact that that's where they're gonna gotta decision their reinforcements. And if our troops get the advanced hand on the flanks and they can endanger Bachmut's logistical support, it will further grow their forces due to the fact that these meals will be constantly tied and destroyed there. And it seems to me that even if the Russians defy and add extra meals, it is simply a trap, due to the fact that then they will focus little on another directions,
Why can't they, can you explain? I'm asking due to the fact that before that, the Russians couldn't leave Kherson, for example, but they did. besides from respective another cities that initially declared that their maintenance was necessary. Why won't it work with Bachmut the same way?
Because they truly want to play historical reconstruction. In the Russian Federation they like analogues with planet War II, andLe in the conflict of Bachmut may be in the function of the 6th German army of Paulus under Stalingrad. Then, in fact, the group of German troops was surrounded. The Germans undertook 3 counteroffensive operations to break the ringing (all failed) and yet surrendered and many died. I think the Russians will play rebuilding here too, but they will be on the side of Paulus' army and may be surrounded.
But they're inactive gonna try. We see that the enemy is inactive clinging to any parts of the earth, trying to get a foothold and will effort to make any success. And then everything will depend on how rapidly we take control of the flanks. But even this, controlling the flank and subjecting the Bachmut to artillery and mortar fire control, does not mean that Russia can retreat immediately. They will leave with words – I presume somewhere behind Bachmut. possibly they'll take the defence there, but they'll choice on it, due to the fact that after the alleged seizure of the city, the Russians won't run distant and leave.
What processes, if the Russians had to retreat even at specified a tiny distance, could they begin in Russia? due to the fact that then they actually gotta admit they're leaving..
Generally, processes in Russia are triggered by a large number of losses, deficiency of victories, as well as process steering. Events in the Bielgorod region and dissatisfied political statements of Prigozin and another figures of the Russian Federation indicate a increasing discontent of Russian society. And of course, the more casualties among the Russian army and the more orders to storm and “stand to the end”, the greater discontent. They already have any demoralization, but so far it has not reached specified utmost size as to origin mass desertion or march on Moscow as we expect. But specified trends are observed.
How crucial is it for Ukraine to halt Bachmut, or alternatively what is left of it after battles?
Today, not only is it crucial for us to halt Bachmut, but to crush a large number of Russian soldiers and tie them up there. And besides make prospects for the liberation of the city at a favorable moment. So we realize perfectly that the goal is to exhaust his opponent, to origin him losses and injuries, and to keep him in the semicircle, and if possible in the ring. They are held in this siege, either forced to surrender or destroyed. And then we'll get Bachmut back without a problem, we'll go to the border, we'll strengthen the defence line, and we'll push the enemy away. So we take precisely this position, and I think it is right, due to the fact that now we gotta go not only to local battles. We can't take this long, due to the fact that erstwhile the flanks are behind us and the artillery is under control, we won't put our forces in danger. That is why it is fundamental for us to push the Russians into this”
Can Russia gather its forces to go further in the future, outside Bachmut – for example Kostantinówka or Slavinska?
They may try, but I don't think they're gonna make it. But the Russians will try. It can be seen that they are already trying to make the offensive, but these attempts are blocked by Ukrainian troops. And the forces in the Russian Federation for continuous attacks, as before, are no longer there - after all, there is simply a immense number of losses. Furthermore, it is very crucial for us to realize that the deficiency of combat clashes within a fewer kilometres between the Russian Federation and Ukrainian defenders opens the anticipation of utilizing artillery and mortars and protecting the occupiers with fire. Therefore, as shortly as specified a possible emerges, I uncertainty that the Russians will make it far.
A small earlier, you talked about prospects, and I would like to explain the prospects that opened up after the conflict of Ukraine. What can we anticipate next, if we halt Bachmut, we grind them - what's in it for us?
Firstly, many Russian troops that could be concentrated in another directions will be destroyed. Secondly, from many possible points we will get another possible bridgehead for counter-offensive operations, especially in the Donetsk region. It will besides let demolition of enemy forces from armed and fortified positions. Not to mention that the enemy is exhausting its potential, and this opens the position of preparing and conducting a large-scale counteroffensive.
Speaking of another directions, what do you mean? Where can they retreat troops and decision them to Bachmut?
Of course. They'll most likely do that, it's inevitable. They have already partially moved from the occupied Luhansk region. Then forces will be active in the rear, which in the occupied areas were in the alleged reserve and should take part in defence activities. The Russians could not rapidly find reserves to defend the region of Belgorod - everyone is involved. And given the losses and exhaustion of the Russian troops, they will charge, effort to shift from another directions. But it's just Bachmut. It should not be forgotten that now the Russians in panic are trying to find out and realize where Ukraine might strike. Either way, they decision along the front lines, so the meals will be removed and moved.
What are your predictions, how long can the conflict of Bachmut last? Is there a period of time that would make it worthwhile for us to stay there?
Until they are pushed from that direction, and most of the Bachmut will not be released from the occupiers. We besides realize that it is crucial for us to block any enemy movement west of Bachmut. Therefore, as long as the Russians are present, and until we exhaust them with the lap, this fight will continue. How long will it take? most likely as much as needed, but it can be said that the initiative is moving to Ukraine. And now we will do for the Russian Federation what they wanted to do with our environment, only more effectively and more effectively.
And faster? I mean, possibly it's not about months?
This will show real combat actions. But I think it'll take little time, and this occupation inactive needs to be done.
Electronic translation
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