Kaja Puto: Georgia again protests with EU flags in hands. The crowds poured into the street after Prime Minister Kobachiga announced that integration with the European Union would be stopped. What do the protesters want?
Wojciech Wojtasiewicz: First of all, the withdrawal of the decision to suspend accession negotiations with the European Union by 2028. It is worth mentioning that the Prime Minister's announcement is fundamentally symbolic due to the fact that in November the European Union itself announced that it would not open negotiations with Georgia. The reason was the deficiency of the required advancement in carrying out a number of reforms presented by the European Commission to Georgia. Brussels noted a decline in Georgia's abroad policy coherence with the EU, as well as respect for human rights, media freedom and the functioning of NGOs.
The second postulate of the protesters is repetition of October elections Parliamentary under the aegis of the global electoral commission. According to the opposition and president Salome Zurabishvili, they were falsified.
Did they?
Election monitoring organisations have reported many irregularities, not only during the vote. Election manipulations in Georgia take place primarily at the electoral run stage. People are bribed, encouraged and intimidated to vote for the organization of power. This peculiarly applies to budget workers and provincial residents. The governing organization Georgian Dreams besides has a decisive media and financial advantage.
However, it should be remembered that Georgian Dreams have quite a few public support. Even if Georgian Dream did not gain 53.8 percent of the vote, as authoritative election results say, it would most likely take first place in the fair elections. It would not necessarily be able to form a government.
What is the reason for this?
Power efficiently convinces part of society that maintaining appropriate relations with Russia is simply a guarantor of peace, while the opposition "provokes" Russia, which could end with the alleged beginning of the second front of the war in Ukraine, or Russia's aggression towards Georgia.
In addition, a crucial part of the opposition is the United National Movement, a erstwhile organization of power founded by erstwhile president Micheil Saakashvili, who, due to its authoritarian urges, inactive has a dispute of negative electorate.
Elections were held at the end of October, the irregularities were known immediately. Why has mass protests only begun now?
Protests just after the election were actually rather limited erstwhile it came to the number of participants, especially compared to the spring demonstrations against the alleged abroad Agents Act. This was translated by the apathy and powerlessness of the pro-Western part of society, due to the fact that the laws that hit independent media and NGOs were adopted anyway.
It seems that the Prime Minister's announcement to suspend integration with the Union even amazed his constituents. Around 80-90% of citizens favour the accession of Georgia to the EU and Georgian Dream had it in its programme. 1 of the party's electoral slogans proclaimed, "Yes to Europe, but with dignity."
To be honest, I find it hard to realize why Prime Minister Kobachidze's announcement was intended. It was apparent that it would trigger negative emotions. Especially since the accession process has already been halted by the Union, and the government's relations with the West are already strained enough.
Can you interpret it as a tribute to the Kremlin?
I don't think so. It is in the interests of the Kremlin that supporters of the Georgian opposition should be apathetic, not out on the street, and stay in their homes. Kobachidi's words gave the opposition wind to sail. president Salome Zurabishvili announced that she would not leave her post, despite her word of office ending in mid-December. The fresh president is to be elected by a college of electors, which includes members not recognized by the opposition of Parliament.
In a minute we may be dealing with a two-power strategy that will besides not be Russia's hand. It is in her interest that Georgia's dream, alternatively than a political crisis, be held calmly.
Russian propaganda compares events in Georgia to Ukrainian protests in Maidan from 2013–2014. Is that a legitimate analogy?
Not only Russia, but besides the ruling party, which calls protests "Nazimajdan". This, of course, fits into Russia's communicative of "colour revolutions", which are inspired by "the rotten West" and bring "distabilization" to average citizens.
However, aside from Russia's intentions, associations with Euromaidan impose themselves. Ukrainian protests started with the fact that then president Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign an association agreement with the European Union. The question, however, is whether we will be facing an escalation of power force in Georgia as well.
Berkut, then Ukrainian peculiar troops of the militia, then shot over a 100 people. And what about the consequence of Georgian services to protests?
Police brutally pacify protests. Water cannons, teardrop gas, demonstrators are used; journalists are stopped, beaten, charged. There were besides repercussions on opposition organization politicians (one of the leaders of the Coalition for Change, Nika Gwarami) and activists of NGOs active in opposition to the current Georgian authorities' actions.
From Georgia's fresh history, we know that power force is more enraged by protesting crowds than by depriming them.
Yes, but it is worth remembering that current protests – although they are spectacular due to the usage of rac and fireworks – are not mass. little than 100,000 people on the little than 4 million people in Georgia are inactive few, and I fear that the demonstrators will be pacified sooner or later. The situation can change if the force from power radically escalates and, for example, individual from the demonstrators dies. This would most likely add fuel to the protests, nevertheless tragic that sounds.
During the 2003 Rose Revolution, there were cases of force-structure officers moving to protestors. Is it out of the question today?
The situation was completely different then. Georgia was an infunctional state that did not pay well for its services, so their officers had no motivation to defend the regime. Today, police officers or peculiar agents gain decently, the opposition even claims that officers pacifying protests are getting any allowances.
However, it is worth noting that the protests brought any ferment in public institutions. respective Georgian ambassadors have resigned from their positions, workers from the Georgian Ministry of Defence, abroad Affairs and Education have signed petitions against suspension of EU integration. There were scratches on the strategy of power – but it is inactive not adequate to reverse the course of events.
So the protesters have no chance of achieving their goals?
I'm afraid not. Their demands are unrealistic in my opinion. The Georgian authorities will not decide to repeat the elections, nor will they agree to any external mediation. Besides, the Kremlin wouldn't let that happen anyway. Georgia, for example, is simply a tiny country with Ukraine and is incapable to argue Russia as Ukrainians do with the support of NATO associate States and the European Union.
Can the West aid protesters? The United States broke its strategical partnership with Georgia and the Baltic States announced individual sanctions against Georgian Dream politicians. Does that make a difference?
The instrumentarium of the West is limited, due to the fact that the Georgian authorities do nothing about his appeals or warnings. Since they themselves have announced that they do not want to join the EU for the time being, they will not effort to keep their candidate status. In addition, the sanctions that lie on the table – e.g. the abolition of visa-free movement for Georgians – are hard to implement due to the fact that they require unanimity of all EU countries.
It is possible that the hard position of the West could now push Georgia deeper into the embrace of Russia or China – Georgian Dreams mobilizes its electorate with rhetoric “getting up from its knees”. Neither the West nor the opposition with the protesters now have a good movement. The situation is just stale.
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Wojciech Wojtasiewicz – South Caucasus analyst at the Polish Institute of global Affairs. He deals with foreign, interior and social policies of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Graduated from global relations at the Institute of Political Sciences and global Relations of the Jagiellonian University. In the past, a government official, a self-government authoritative and a writer specialising in post-missile area.
