On Wednesday, the European Commission will address the proposal for an EU agreement with the Mercosur countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. The agreement aims to liberalise trade between the 2 blocks. The Polish political class, usually divided, reached a consensus against it. More specifically, it has been divided into 2 categories in this issue – the opponents of the contract and the opponents of the contract who do not see a chance of blocking it.
The first group includes PiS politicians and the president, the second group is the governing coalition with the Prime Minister. erstwhile president Nawrocki called on the government to make a blocking number at the Cabinet Council, the Prime Minister replied: “There are no volunteers. But don't be shy, Mr President."
When individual declares that he is about to make a large mistake, he should be dissuaded from it, and not yet thrown "you will not succeed" texts into the oven. Although perfect opponents of the deal with the countries of South America give tales of unusual content, cyclical opponents, alternatively of answering them with arguments, like to agree just in case. The most crucial thing is to explain a number of freaks. The problem is that decisions have consequences far further than the increase in the percentages charged.
Why does Mercosur object?
Opposition to the Mercosur Group agreement is not an first attitude. The agreement has been negotiated since 1999, which is over a 4th of a century. Many staunch opponents of an agreement are so younger than negotiations. To date, the agreement has been blocked by countries of crucial importance of agriculture for social awareness, specified as France, the Netherlands, Ireland or yet Poland. crucial primarily in the context of perception, since in no of these countries agriculture is not liable for more than 3% of GDP.
In Poland, agriculture provides 2.9 percent added value, in the Netherlands 1.9%, in France 1.5% and in Ireland only 1.1%. In Poland, agriculture is the second from the end of the field of economical activity in terms of contribution to added value. Only culture and amusement (1.9 percent) contribute less. Across the EU, agriculture is precisely the last place with 1.7% (culture and amusement are 3.1%).
Opponents of the trade agreement with South America argue that the decline in the importance of agriculture for Poland is simply a negative phenomenon. Agriculture is to be a strategical sector which must be protected at all costs. With all due respect to hard-working farmers, but strategical industries usually include uncommon or state regulated goods specified as energy, money (bank sector) or costly natural resources. Wheat or sugar beet production is not peculiarly strategic, as there are quite a few grain and another agricultural natural materials in the world. In the immediate vicinity of Poland, they are abundant, as evidenced by the grain crisis associated with beginning up to trade with Ukraine.
The influx of grain from above Dnieper may indeed have outraged farmers due to the fact that it was abrupt and rather unannounced. Farmers invested in sowing fields and collecting crops, while the state changed their rules during the game. However, the Mercosur trade agreement will gradually enter into and the interests of EU agricultural producers will be safeguarded.
Mercosur does not endanger Polish farmers
For example, duties on beef will only be reduced to a circumstantial quota – in the first year to 16.5 000 tonnes, but in six years this threshold will increase to 99 000 tonnes. However, all EU beef production in 2023 amounted to 6.5 million tonnes. Thus, the simplification of the work on beef from 13 to 7.5% will only apply to a quota of little than 1.5% of EU production. European beef will proceed to prevail in the EU, and Poles are besides specialised in pork production. In this respect, Poland is 4th in the EU (1.8 million tonnes in 2023 – 9% of EU production), for Spain (less than 5 million tonnes), Germany and France.
Pork from South America has no reputation as beef, so it should not get out of the marketplace of Polish production. Especially due to the fact that Poles are celebrated for killing pigs, and Polish pork enjoys higher prestige than Brazilian. If that's not enough, duty-exempt quota of slaughtered pigs made in Mercosur will be only 26,500 tonnes, or 1.5 percent of what is being slaughtered on the Vistula River. specified a minimum quota cannot jeopardise Polish farmers. It is rather likely that almost no 1 in Poland on the table will experience pork from South America.
The agreement with the Mercosur economical area does not so supply for the full elimination of customs barriers to agricultural products, but for their gradual reduction. Agriculture will so be protected, although it is already supported through the Common Agricultural Policy. In the current financial perspective, €387 billion will be allocated to the CAP, or over €55 billion all year. It's almost as much as it was in 2024. import from Mercosur to the EU of all kinds of goods. The stories of the EU wanting to kill agriculture on intent are fables and ferns. No another sector is supported on specified a large scale as agricultural production.
Of course, food is simply a strategical good in the sense that without it, famine can be threatened. However, Poland is not in a situation where specified a script would be likely at all. In the event of an armed conflict, we will no uncertainty run out of missiles faster than grain. In addition, it is worth to start distinguishing between food production and agricultural natural materials production – agriculture deals with the latter. The first food industry, which is very strong in Poland, but beginning markets in South America is simply a large chance for it. The Mercosur marketplace presently applies 20 to 35 percent duties on food and beverages. The abolition of these tariffs will let companies specified as Maspex to grow to fresh markets, which will make it easier for Polish food products to be much more affordable than Dutch, Swiss or French ones, and this is crucial for consumers from Brazil or Argentina.
Agricultural production provides natural materials for the food industry. Its advanced share of GDP is evidence of a weakness in the economy, not strength. On the another hand, the decline in agricultural participation is usually recorded during fast development. In 2005–2024, the share of agriculture in added value in Romania fell from 9.6 to 3.6%, while in Bulgaria from 8.6 to 2.4%. Neither 1 or the another mourns due to the fact that these 2 decades were a time of fast income growth.
In Poland, the share of agriculture in the economy fell from 3.4 to 2.9 percent, which is inactive much higher than the EU average (1.7 percent). In addition, Polish agriculture produces these little than 3% added value, employing 7.5% workers. Productivity in Polish agriculture is so more than twice the average for the full economy. The manufacture employs over a 5th of its employees in Poland, providing almost a 4th of its added value, so it stands out on a affirmative basis.
Industrial production for the Polish economy is 8 times more crucial than agriculture. Meanwhile, Trump's forcing an EU trade agreement to hit manufacture first. We sent industrial goods, specified as machines or chemicals, to the ocean. Mercosur acquires precisely the same goods from the EU. According to the European Commission data, in 2024 exports to the countries of this group mostly included machines (28%), chemicals and pharmaceuticals (25%) and motor vehicles (12%). In each of these industries Poland has a very strong position. On the another hand, mineral materials (31%), including uncommon metals (beryl, lithium), cellulose and paper (7%), flow outside agricultural products (43%). They are not high-margin goods, so you can quit manufacturing parts of them without much regret.
Mercosur is an chance for Polish industry
So far, trade between the EU and Mercosur has been perfectly balanced – in 2024 we imported goods worth EUR 56 million and exported for EUR 55.2 billion. alleged terms of trade (a price relation between imported and exported products) is so beneficial for Europe, as we sale highly processed goods, thus having a advanced margin, and bringing in natural materials, including crucial metals that Europe does not have.
Moreover, the agreement besides assumes Mercosur's compliance with sanitary, ecological and climatic rules. South American countries should, among another things, implement anti-deforestation solutions and will besides gotta prosecute the climate objectives contained in the Paris Agreement. Thus, the agreement will increase the costs of Mercosur companies, aligning the conditions of competition with European companies.
The trade agreement with the Mercosur countries will so be beneficial for Poland, as the possible losses of agricultural producers with a large deal of force will compensate for the increase in industrial production. Contract critics argue that it is mainly in the interests of Germany due to the fact that they are the industrial power. However, Poland has precisely the same share of manufacture in added value as Germany (23%). So why should Germany pay, but not to Poles?
Of course, if a region of partially free trade between the EU and the majority of South America brings serious problems to agricultural enterprises, the government can intervene – launch buying-in, introduce temporary administrative restrictions or pay state subsidies. Farmers will have time to adjust their business profile towards a higher margin, so they will start competing not with mass but with sculpture. The fact that in the 16th century Poland was a grain power does not mean that in the 21st century specified an economical model is inactive a good thought (if it was then).
