It seemed that in 2024 the choice between Trump – starting with highly extremist even for this policy of transmission – and any elementaryly competent competitor should be obvious. As it turned out, he wasn't. Trump won, achieving better results than 4 years ago, besides in states considered Democratic bastions. Many indicate that he will not only win the majority in the electorate college, but will besides win the popular vote – which since 1988 the Republican candidate succeeded only once, in 2004, erstwhile George W. Bush defeated John F. Kerry. Republicans will regain control of the Senate, and they will most likely keep it in the home of Representatives.
What happened? Democrats will discuss this for a long time. respective theories have already appeared in public space. The failure of Harris is blamed on sexism and racism of American society, the polarization of the electorate around cultural issues and factors specified as sex and education, the Democrats ignoring the subject of migration and expensiveness, the inability to defend the economical achievements of Biden's presidency, the besides shift to the left but besides the besides strong course to the inside, the attitude of the outgoing administration on Gaza, Elon Musk, the action of social media, the focus of the Democrat's run on Trump attacks, not on presentation of their own affirmative proposals, Biden's decision to launch for the second time, the deficiency of charisma Kamala Harris.
Some of these explanations are contradictory, no of them full explain Trump's victory, though there may be any kind of grain of fact in each of them. But before we look into the analysis of how we found ourselves in this situation, it is worth considering what it means. I mean, to put it simply and briefly, it's not good. Trump's second triumph creates a very negative political situation: for the States, Europe, Ukraine, Poland, the world.
Fatal News for Ukraine
Trump's success is primarily a terrible message for Ukraine. Even before the victory, the Republican Ukraine was in a very hard situation, now it can be put against the wall. We don't know what Trump's decisions are going to be, how seriously the Republican took his assurances that he would end the war in 24 hours. However, it cannot be ruled out that Ukraine will simply be blackmailed by Trump to accept peace on Russian terms in 24 hours.
The future vice president J. D. Vance He even rearranged the plan of what specified a area would look like. Ukraine agrees with the actual failure of Crimea and Donbas, a demilitarized region is formed between the areas controlled by her and Russia. In exchange for the safety guarantee, Ukraine is neutralized and left permanently outside NATO and akin alliances.
It would be a terrible end to the war for Ukraine. Ukrainians would not only gotta accept the failure of territory, but would besides lose the right to freely form alliances. specified a war finale would radically strengthen Putin and his regime. It would give Putinian Russia time to regroup forces and another offensive over a fewer years – possibly directed against 1 of the east states of the NATO flank.
Time for a strategical awakening of Europe
The more we don't know what the U.S. approach to the Alliance will look like in Trump's second term. At worst, Europe is facing a fast rotation of the American safety umbrella and a concentration of attention from the States in the Indo-Pacific area.
Although this is not the most likely script with Trump, it is very possible that the fresh president will play against each another the countries of Europe, offering American safety as a bargaining card, treating them as a luxury service available only to the countries best in agreement with the President. Fortunately, in Poland present we have a government that is improbable to play Trump in this way – unlike the governments of the Law and Justice Party, which would be very enthusiastic about specified a game for the division of Europe.
Trump's second triumph should be an emergency bell for Europe. Europe must begin to take greater work for its own safety. negociate with Trump as free and predictable as possible to reduce the American commitment to the safety of our continent so that it has time to build its own defence potential.
Especially since Trump's presidency can mean even more restless times than the last 2 years. Trump boasted in the run that no war had broken out for his regulation in the world, but the second word of a Republican might look completely different. Biden's administration policy towards Israel deserved criticism – but this Trump will be even worse. Netanjahu will gain a completely free hand from January, which could consequence in an even greater escalation of the conflict in the mediate East. Nor do we know how "hot" the second word of Trump can become a Chinese-American rivalry.
America’s Left — A hard Time
Trump's triumph besides represents a powerful political problem for the American left for 2 reasons. First, it returns to the situation from 2016 to 2020. alternatively of fighting for progressive, equal solutions within a broad democratic coalition, she will now gotta fight within it to halt Trump's most destructive urges.
And Trump's second word looks truly dangerous in this respect. task 2025 contains a plan to remove as many strategy fuses as possible limiting the President's power. Musk and another technobillionaires are dreaming of a radically slimming Libertarian state revolution in the Javier Millei style. Trump wants to usage the state to avenge his opponents. It's a reactionary anti-liberal right with J.D. Vancem wants to usage power to impose on citizens – and especially citizens – conservative values, rejected by the majority. At worst, Washington will become a merger of Beunos Aires Milei with Budapest Orbán – and the left will have no choice but to fight together with a very broad coalition, including even neo-Knservatists from Bush's administration Jr. so that this black script does not materialise.
Secondly, as Tomasz Markiewka has already written about this, there are many indications that this The left will be blamed for Harris' defeat. Biden's administration was the most left-wing, most friendly organized work and left wing of the organization administration since this Lyndon B. Johnson. shortly there will be voices that Harris has lost due to the fact that the Democrats have moved besides far distant from the center.
These voices will reenforce Harris' defeat in Pennsylvania. Before the election from the party's right side, there were voices that Harris made a mistake, choosing as Vice president candidate Tim Walz, alternatively than popular Pennsylvania politician Josh Shapiro. Shapiro represented a more center wing of the party, he was besides hard to accept for its progressive wing due to his position on the conflict in the mediate East. shortly we will hear many voices saying, "If Kamala hadn't capitulated before the extremist left, we would have won it."
Shock after Trump's first triumph created a favorable prosperity for the progressive wing of democrats, as crucial to him as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, they were first elected to the home of Representatives in the first election in the mediate of Trump's term. It is possible that Trump's second triumph will have the other effect – it will decision the democrats to the right, leaving less and less space in the organization for the progressive wing.
The Blacks weather?
Trump's triumph will breathe fresh energy into the most reactionary alt-right in the world. In Poland. The Republican's success will revive the demoralized subsequent defeats and crisis of Kaczyński's leadership of the PiS, giving the organization hope of establishing a fight in the presidential election.
Trump's triumph will besides strengthen the most extremist forces in the PiS. In another words, on Wednesday morning we woke up much closer to the Black 25 script. On the another hand, if Trump starts office by imposing Ukraine's peace, which Poles will see as a threat to our safety as well, then besides "trump" candidate may besides harm the chances of the Law and Justice.
Certainly Trump in the White home and the increase in global uncertainty associated with it will make Polish policy even more focused on safety issues. Which increases Sikorski's chances of being nominated by KO.
It is besides bad news for the left in Poland. Today, the Left does not have a candidate or candidate who can present a competent and left-wing imagination of safety policy in the presidential campaign. The focus of discussion on safety will naturally push the crucial issues of the left side.
In summary, after the 3rd decade of the 21st century began with the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, it seemed that it could no longer be worse. It turns out that erstwhile we go into the second half of the decade, looking at the first, we can say “better already”.
