France, Serbia and Hungary are the 3 countries that decided to visit Chinese leader Xi Jinping during his almost weekly visit to Europe, which began on Monday 5 May. 5 years after the last journey to our continent and signing an agreement with Italy to join the flagship Chinese initiative Belt and Trail, from which the Meloni government withdrew in late 2023, the Chinese leader is not only seeking commercial matters. utilizing divisive and government tactics, he will effort to exploit the current dissensions between Western allies and French ambitions of achieving strategical European autonomy to accelerate the process of rebuilding global order.
Why France, Serbia and Hungary? It so happens that this year marks the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between France and the PRC (Paris nearly 15 years earlier than Washington recognized the communist government of China), and on 7 May besides the 25th anniversary of NATO's bombing of the Chinese embassy in Serbia, resulting in the deaths of 3 Chinese journalists.
However, what is crucial is that both France and, above all, Serbia and Hungary have good relations with Beijing. As stressed by the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of abroad Affairs Lin, France and China combine "effective strategical communication and fruitful applicable cooperation". Serbia is the most loyal Chinese partner in Europe. Both countries enjoy "iron friendship" and "strongly support each another on the issues underlying the interests and main concerns". Hungary, although not regarded as China's most loyal friend, ranks somewhere in the mediate and both countries combine "deeper common political trust". Beijing is besides active in the construction of railways between the capitals of Hungary and Serbia. Another Chinese mill is expected to be established in the country of Victor Orban to aid circumvent the planned EU electricity tariffs.
Chinese Order
In France, Xi Jinping met not only with president Emmanuel Macron, but besides with KE chief Ursula von der Leyen, discussing dumped duties and fresh spy scandals or the issue of support given to Russia in the war against Ukraine.
Shortly after returning to China, the Chinese leader is to visit Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Macron is seeking a truce in all conflicts around the planet at the time of the Paris Olympics. In June, peace talks on the war in Ukraine were scheduled in Switzerland, but Moscow refuses to participate. French leader hopes Xi Jinping will aid convince Putin to take appropriate action.
Americans see the Chinese leader's visit as an effort to teardrop the Western alliance apart. Analysts indicate that Beijing seeks to clear global organizations of “Western value”, to knock a dollar off pedestal and destruct Washington's influence on critical technology. Xi Jinping, like the Russian leader, is curious in building a multipolar world, but based on the Chinese concept of common safety and economical improvement and Chinese values, rights and Chinese technology.
The current rivalry between the US and China for hegemony is not between democracy and autocracy, as suggested by Joe Biden's team, but between different views on what democracy should be. In this competition, many emerging countries want to keep sovereignty and prosecute their own interests, which are not essential to coincide with the interests of the block led by the US or China.
India, South Africa, Brazil and Russia as well as a number of global countries The South is not in favour of defending an global rule-based order, as the Americans suggest, due to the fact that these rules have frequently been violated by the US and allies, for example by military interventions in Kosovo or Iraq, or by imposing sanctions on countries that have traded with Iran, or by imposing a alleged green economy and pushing towards the introduction of a carbon taxation on the border.
India, Turkey and another countries do not want to take a firm stand on 1 side but want to keep sovereignty and conduct a policy that is compatible with their national interests, maintaining relations with both 1 and the another powers.
With the planet moving towards greater fragmentation and multipolarity, developing countries want to be able to make their own abroad policy. any of them, far from conflict zones, do not see war in Ukraine or the mediate East as existential threats. They besides recognise the inclusion of more powers in regional cases as an chance for greater area for manoeuvre in their policies. Beijing understands this and so supports the efforts of the smaller states, especially in Africa or South America, but besides in Europe, to keep an independent abroad policy, “helping to liberate” from the dominance of the “western” hegemon.
Xi Jinping during his last visit to Moscow at the end of March this year indicated that he did not care about the polarization of the world, about the creation of 2 dominant blocks and a fresh Cold War, but about fragmentation. Hence the diplomatic offensive of kindness. Beijing introduces itself as a friend of countries, emphasising the preservation of sovereignty.
This seems to have been understood by the British, who announced a change of strategy and support for the sovereignty of African states, hoping to regain influence in the lost colonies now taken over by the Chinese.
Commercial tensions
A visit to Europe takes place at a time erstwhile commercial tensions are expanding in connection with the ongoing EC anti-dumping proceedings. This is about selling Chinese electrical cars, wind turbines or medical equipment. late there have besides been arrests of alleged Chinese spies in Germany and the UK and raids on the offices of Chinese safety equipment maker Nuctech.
By the end of this year, sales of Chinese electrical vehicles on the planet marketplace are estimated to increase by 50%. In addition to Europe, where nearly 40% of vehicles go, electricity besides reaches Southeast Asian countries and the mediate East. Chinese producers of BYD and Chery Automobile electricians are planning further expansion.
Brussels, as suggested by the Financial Times, intends to temporarily impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese cars between May and July. Subsequently, the majority of EU countries will be required to agree on the duties to be imposed longer in November this year.
American think tank The Rodhium Group estimates that anti-dumping duties would be between 15% and 30%, although their calculations propose that they should be up to 50% to halt the sale of inexpensive Chinese cars. For example, BYD sells its vehicles in China for about EUR 20 500 and in the EU for EUR 42 000. "According to our calculations, even with 30% of duties, the profit of the company in the EU would inactive be 15% higher than in China (4700 euro), indicating that exports to Europe stay very attractive", the study stressed.
Analysts propose that European tariffs will not prevent car manufacturers specified as BYD and Chery from pursuing global ambitions. This year Beijing will have a 60% share in planet sales of fresh electrical vehicles and exports of fresh vehicles are expected to amount to 1.8 million units, which means an increase of 50% year-on-year.
Xi Jinping in France sought better sales conditions for Chinese electricians. According to the Chinese Association of individual Cars, full exports of cars from China, covering all passenger and utility vehicles, were estimated at 5.26 million units last year and were valued at about 102 billion dollars.
European electrical cars sold in China are subject to 15% taxation and Chinese electrics are subject to 10% taxation on the European market. Macron demanded reciprocity in trade.
France
Just after the Chinese president arrived in France, the government there signed a broad pact with the automotive industry, which set fresh targets for the sale of electrical vehicles. The agreement between the government, business groups and trade unions assumes a four-fold increase in sales of electrical vehicles to 800,000 per year in 2027 and a six-fold increase in sales of electrical light commercial vehicles to 100,000 per year.
The talks between the presidents of both countries afraid global matters, including the war in Ukraine and the mediate East, Chinese support for the truce at the time of the Paris Olympics, not sending dual-use goods to Russia. Macron lobbied to keep advanced sales of French brandy to China, which are the largest recipient of this beverage after sales of strong alcohol in the US declines. China launched an anti-dumping investigation into the Union brandy in January, raising concerns that they would impose duties on European alcohols up to 218%, as was the case with Australian wine. China received 19.4% of all French brandy exports in 2023.
During a joint press conference in Paris on Monday, Macron said that Europe does not want to origin problem with its trade policy, but simply tries to keep sovereignty. He besides stated that the 2 countries would proceed trade talks, all the more so that "China's direct investments in France are 3 times lower than France's investments in China". Macron wants to “balance” them. He wants to make cooperation in the field of electrical vehicles, battery production, as well as state-of-the-art technologies, digital platforms, etc.
The Chinese leader called for closer relations between both nations in areas specified as agriculture, finance, aviation and cosmonautics, atomic energy and cultural exchange.
During their stay in France, the Chinese delegation signed a full of 18 interministerial cooperation agreements, including not large contracts for Alstom's French company to build a subway.
Prior to his visit, Macron signaled his desire to exert force on Xi on economical ties. He expressed concerns about Europe and the United States flooding planet markets with inexpensive Chinese goods. He even called on ‘aggiornamento’ to adjust their production capacity to another markets.
France in Beijing's eyes is seen as a country that tries to become more independent of American influence than another countries and tries to keep an independent position within the EU. Beijing – any say – will want to “work” on Macron to see if Europe’s distance to American politics can be increased.
The authoritative message issued by the Ministry of abroad Affairs of China following Xi's arrival in France stated that both countries with different social systems established a "model of peaceful coexistence and cooperation in which both sides win". This model would be a model for another countries.
In Paris Xi Jinping besides met with the EC chief Ursula von der Leyen, who threatened that Europe would defend its trading position and expected Beijing's trading practices to change. China remains the EU's most crucial partner. Brussels complains that Chinese practices distort the marketplace and make unfair operating conditions due to subsidies not only to electrical cars but besides solar panels. 97% of the panels on the European marketplace come from China. There are wind turbines. In March, von der Leyen announced a change in trade policy towards China, expecting a greater balance. To date, the EU's trade deficit with China of over EUR 400 billion has not been addressed.
In 2020, the EU and China agreed on a comprehensive investment agreement that was never implemented. Its ratification was blocked six months later by the European Parliament after the Chinese imposed sanctions on Euro MPs for criticizing China's human rights policy.
Serbia and Hungary
Outside France, Xi Jinping visited Serbia, and at the end on Thursday and Friday is due to be in Hungary. Both countries inactive welcome China with open arms and both have good relations with Moscow.
Even during the joint press conference of Xi and Macrona, the Chinese leader assured that his country played an active function in promoting peace. He added that China is against any party's usage of the Ukrainian crisis to lead a "new Cold War".
Xi's visit to Belgrade coincided with the week that marks the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing on the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. The Chinese side cultivates memory of the event, indicating the aggressiveness of an alliance dominated by the US. The United States assured after the incidental that the attack on the embassy was an accidental alternatively than deliberate action.
Serbia, which is not a associate of the EU, is the second country next to Hungary to which the most Chinese investments in Europe go. Beijing describes Serbia as an “iron friend”. In January, the Balkan people signed an agreement that foresees Chinese investments worth over $2 billion in wind and solar power plants and a hydrogen-producing plant.
In Hungary, the Chinese leader not only intends to build an assembly plant for electrical cars, but besides intends to deepen relations with Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Hungary has already blocked European sanctions against China for human rights violations. The country of Orbana gains as an crucial hub in Europe for Chinese car manufacturers and suppliers, helping circumvent existing duties.
It is besides suggested that the Chinese leader will want to show that he does not quit the initiative of 16+1, which includes the countries of Central and east Europe and China (supporting the Belt and way programme), from which the Baltic States withdrew, and the cooperation of any e.g. Poland has weakened significantly.
A spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of abroad Affairs Lin, before the visit, announced that Xi's journey "will guarantee stableness in the improvement of China-Europe relations and will make a fresh contribution to planet peace and stability".
India closely watches the visit
The visit is closely followed not only by Americans and European capitals, but besides by India. The analysts there propose to the authorities that they become more active in European affairs, in trade and security, including the war in Ukraine, so that India does not stay simply a passive observer of the powerful change in relations between Washington Brussels, Moscow and Beijing.
Indian analysts have no uncertainty that Xi Jinping intends to exploit misunderstandings and divisions between Europe and the US. At the same time, they see that Europe is being cornered by Trump's probable return to power, advancement in the Russian offensive in Ukraine and economical force from Beijing.
Agnieszka Stelmach
