A loud saying or suggesting a year and a half ago that Moscow's Russian-Ukrainian War is likely to win was a reason to become a “Russian onus”. In our infantile-agent political elite, it is inactive the same to this day, as Andrzej Duda late experienced, sincerely admitting that he does not believe that Ukraine will regain Crimea. This provoked the widespread outrage of our elite, but all this artificial perversion has small social bearing today. Why? due to the fact that everyone realizes that Putin just wins this war.
One Russian politician said any time ago that “Russia simply has to win this war” and is “bound on victory”. This is true, and this is due to a comparison of the strength and possible of both countries. The thought of the West to settle the conflict was to sanction Moscow and wait for the Russian economy to fall, which would force Putin to ask for peace. This plan failed as the Russians had prepared for the war, uncovering previously Asian recipients of their hydrocarbons and signing appropriate cooperation agreements with China and India. Comparison of the possible of forces of Russia and Ukraine – demographic, economical and military – indicated that Kiev's chances were slim. Of course, the West, alternatively of sustaining Ukraine with a drip of money and equipment, could theoretically supply her with anything. However, this would affect tremendous costs for which he was not ready. For example, he was not able to produce adequate artillery if he wanted to. Kiev's Achilles' 5th from the start was demographic resources, condemning him to failure in the event of an extended conflict.
The full plan of the West and Kiev – agreed by Żeleński and Boris Johnson in Kiev in March 2023 – was to believe that Russia would bend under sanctions and that the drip provided to Ukrainians would let them to last until then. Therefore, Ukraine rejected the final agreement already negotiated in Istanbul. Let's add, an agreement whereby she didn't lose anything she owned. She was to agree to the annexation of Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk – which were already occupied by the Russians. She was expected to declare neutrality and not enter NATO – which she was not a associate of anyway. In general, the peace conditions were humiliating, but bearable, and Russia agreed to them, due to the fact that unexpectedly she encountered strong opposition for herself from the Ukrainian army, suffered considerable losses at first and preferred to settle for smaller achievements to avoid large war and western sanctions. In March 2023 it was best for Kiev to make peace, as it showed that it had fangs and claws and it would not be easy, and the country had not yet been destroyed and had the possible for longer defense. Boris Johnson – appearing as a delegate of the alleged collective West – persuaded Żeleński to reject the agreement, promising a generous supply of weapons and convincing that the Russian economy would shortly collapse.
Anyone curious in the past of the Spanish conquest of America must remember Hernán Cortés' celebrated decision erstwhile the Spaniards left Mexico and set out to conquer the Aztec Empire. Cortés, after landing his expedition, ordered that the ships be burned down so that the soldiers knew they couldn't return and must either win or die. He did a akin thing after breaking the agreement with Istanbul Żeleński, signing a decree prohibiting any negotiations with Putin and penalising any specified attempt. He was convinced that the Russian economy would collapse sooner than the Ukrainian defence line, abundantly reinforced by Western equipment.
And this is the turn of February and March 2024. The Russian economy spins rather well, the Russian army is much more numerous, better armed and trained than in February 2022, on the front Russians have twice as many soldiers as at the beginning of the war. Mariupol, Siewierodonieck, Bachmut, Awdijiwka died. More and more are said to weaken Ukraine. The deficiency of soldiers, the ability to collect ends, and even if they are, there is no more money to train and keep more strength. The economy has rolled by 1⁄4 and the West is increasingly tired of war, especially its main sponsor in the form of the United States. The West is not keeping up with artillery production. The front slowly, but constantly moves to the detriment of Kiev, with the threat that it will break at any point. In a word, all next week makes Ukrainian cards weaker.
The biggest weakness of Żeński's crew was and remains the deficiency of an thought what to do if Russia does not bend under sanctions? Of course, we can proceed to believe in media propaganda that Ukraine wins erstwhile again, but the map shows that the situation is reversed and will not change this heroic defence of Bachmut or Awdijiwka to show the planet that these fortress-symbols are impossible to obtain. Objectively looking, comparing the arrangement of forces, Russia is getting stronger towards Ukraine, and Kiev is weakening. And the government in Kiev, about a year and a half ago, should have developed a plan B, in case the Russian economy survives sanctions and starts gaining an advantage on the front. Unfortunately, it is hard not to conclude that Kiev does not have Plan B and intends to fight until the defeat. The positional war on common exhaustion increasingly resembles And the planet war, which ended with an interior breakdown on the back of 1 side. In 1918 it was Germany, and in 2024 it could happen again in Ukraine.
I will admit that I personally do not realize the thought of fighting to the last soldier and cartridge, due to the fact that this objectively leads to a disaster preceded by the gradual failure of all assets in peace talks. Kiev had only 1 advantage: more Russian soldiers will die in the war that is taking place. And what is weaker is the advantage it loses. In March 2022 it was a strong asset. present he is weak, but shortly he may not be at all. Where's your plan B?
Adam Wielomski
