In the light of dawn on fresh Year's Eve, at 6:00 p.m., gas stopped flowing through Ukraine. Europe's gas balance has generated 15 billion m3 of natural gas per year, almost 5% of its (continuously decreasing) demand.
From the world's largest gas transmission system, which supplied 200 billion m3 of gas (10 times more than Poland needs, 40% of the EU's demand), only rusting pipes remained. Russia lost about half of its exports by pipelines to Europe, that's about $7 billion in yearly income. The countries of Central Europe and, of course, Ukraine have lost on this. But who cares about losers! Let's see who won this game. The communicative is written by the winners.
Why did the pipelines freeze? due to the fact that the 2 most crucial players in this game had the same opinion. No more Russian gas! Washington and Brussels, of course, had a decisive voice. Just like 5 years earlier only that this time, they did NOT want an extension of transit. However, while both the US and the EU have won – they have achieved their objectives, 1 has strengthened their strategical position, the another has weakened.
The White home cold and without major obstacles pursues its far-reaching goals. However, they are, unlike the younger (oh, younger!) partner, closely connected with American interests. First, Washington weakened Russia, depleting its income. Oil didn't work out, but gas for Europe did. And in addition (two in one) opened the European gas marketplace for American LNG. What the president of the elect states reminded him of with a kind of charm without any peculiar tension, doing virtually nothing. All the dirty work is done by Brussels. And erstwhile she's completely out of it, the Treasury Department strikes with sanctions at both allies and the main enemy. The inclusion of Gazprombank sanctions in December blocked the anticipation for European customers to pay for gas. Ofac recalled that it has been besides long to meet these EU commitments to break up with Russia. Brussels politicians have provided this in Washington so many times, so it's time, time...
By breaking transit, the United States besides broke 1 of the last strands of the relation between Europe and Russia. And it was besides America's strategical interest that the imagination of Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok was a threat to it, from the top shelf. So they weaken the Old Continent geopolitically, energetically and industrially, and this 1 becomes a weaker, younger and helpless partner. In addition, it continues to increase future dependence on an older partner, even though cutting off from China and thus becoming an outlet for American corporations. America has not succeeded in "throwing to pieces" the Russian economy, but cooperation between Europe and Russia – surely so. And make any money.
The European Commission has besides won, shown who is in charge. That it determines what is the law and work of Ukraine and what is not. This is an attribute of power, which is increasingly leaking from the capitals of the associate States and cumulative in Brussels. The actions of Ukraine were, of course, contrary to the provisions of the Energy Charter, which it signed and ratified, requiring the transit country to let transmission between the parties to the contract. Not only with the Charter, including the Association Agreement with the Union, which prohibits action against the economical interests and energy safety of the associate States. Ukraine did not keep it and it was not punished. The disregard of the arguments of Budapest and Bratislava by Brussels shows that the contracts are worth as much as the paper on which they are written. If, of course, there is no force behind them to enforce them.
However, Brussels works against the interests of Europe. The earlier inept attempts to yield to the "strategic autonomy" were strangled in the embryo, and the outbreak of the Ukrainian War was for the Union the window of chance in which the Brussels establishment chose to subdue the Allied in place of its own function in the global game.
Details... in the nearest Polish Thought...
Andrzej Szczęsniak
Think Poland, No. 3-4 (19-26.01.2025)
