The full political Poland watches the primaries in KO, the fight between the president of Warsaw and the Minister of abroad Affairs. With all the proportions being maintained, this can be compared to how the full planet is excited by elections in the United States – just as global politics depends on whether adequate politician voters will mobilize in Detroit, Atlanta, Philadelphia or Phoenix to balance the mobilisation of Republican voters from agrarian and suburban counties of Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona, so the dynamics of the next year's presidential race will find whether the powiat PO structures will more convince Sikorski or Trzaskowski.
This choice will substance not only to the Platform, but to all another political players whose final decision, whom to put in the presidential race, will depend mostly on who wins the primary match. In this for the left – for the chances of her candidate in the presidential election and how comfortable her voters will be to vote in the second circular for the candidate KO. due to the fact that whoever won't be will most likely face the PiS candidate.
For whom, then – Sikorski or Trzaskowski – the left-wing voters should keep their fingers crossed?
Trzaskowski threatens to repeat the script from 2015 and 2020
From the chance point of view of the left candidate, it would undoubtedly be better if the current abroad minister had won the primaries. Trzaskowski as a candidate of KO can completely take oxygen from left-wing campaign. In competition with the president of Warsaw, a individual who competes with the support of the left may again, for the 3rd time in a row, score akin to Magdalena Ogórek in 2015 (2.38%) and Robert Biedron in 2020 (2.22%).
The left-wing electorate in Poland is simply liberal in its mass. And Trzaskowski as a candidate associated with the most liberal wing of KO, entering into certain aspirational ideas, educated electorate on how the president should look and present himself, will be an attractive option for this electorate. Especially that he realizes that the candidate of the left will not fight in these elections for victory, and with a large probability not even 3rd place – which acts demobilizing and encourages to vote for the candidate having the best chance of winning already in the first round.
Spring Magdalena Biejat In the presidential election in Warsaw, however, a reasonably decent consequence was obtained 12.86 percent of the votes. However, these results cannot be transferred to all Poland. In the capital the left has its young, rather well-educated electorate, for which a politician like Biejat was an perfect candidate – it does not necessarily should be specified for declaring left-wing views of middle-older voters from Koszalin, Sosnowiec or Legnica. The consequence of Biejat was most likely besides composed of voices of erstwhile voters of Trzaskovsky, who, assured of the triumph of the candidate KO, wanted to show him a yellow card for various reasons.
In the order of KO, published on Monday poll Obserwacja 24, examining the chances of 2 KO candidates, the willingness to vote for Trzaskowski declares 77% of voters defining their conviction as left-wing and 74% of left-wing voters. Of course, those giving specified answers meant, as 1 might suppose, mainly a second round. But many of them with good run and mediocre ratings of the left Trzaskowski will attract in the first.
Sikorski is much little attractive to the left electorate. In the same study, the willingness to vote for him declares 38 percent of voters with leftist beliefs and only 23 percent of leftist voters.
Campaign space
It is the left-wing candidate who leaves space for the campaign. Especially that Sikorski is clearly positioned as a candidate for the right wing of KO and government coalition. "I consider myself a Conservative in the European edition," he declared on Tuesday morning in an interview on RMF FM radio.
On Monday on his social media, the head of the MFA announced his 7 priorities for the presidential election. any of them may besides be sent to left-wing voters: the most anti-PiS-ovian will be pleased with the promise to take distant the Order of the White Eagle Macierewicz, the green voters will like the promise to support renewable energy, the full left-wing assurance that they will yet gain access to safe abortion with president Sikorski Polka, and Polish law will bring partnerships.
But the key to the political sense of Sikorski's launch is Priority 2. Let us quote him in full:
‘The president must combine different sensitivity. In May until the triumph we will not mobilize Poles with anti-PiS emotions. We request a affirmative vision, a language beyond divisions, respect for tradition and pride for what it means to be Poles in 2024. Without conservative voters we will not win the second round".
Here we see a clear plan for the campaign, which powerfully casts a conservative anchor, and since the beginning it has focused on getting more conservative voters – mainly PSL and Confederate – in the second round.
In specified a campaign, Sikorski, the left-wing candidate could easily, without competition in principle, mobilise the left-liberal electorate, including part of the 1 who voted for the KO in the last election. Even specified a run won't be easy for a left-wing candidate. In the Opinia poll 24 in the hypothetical variant of the start of Sikorski Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk ranks last among candidates of serious parties with 6 percent support – only 2 percent points higher than in the variant of the start of Trzaskowski.
However, the clash with Trzaskowski leaves much little space for the left-wing campaign, especially if the left-wing organization were to be a candidate for human rights, the separation of the Church from the state, referring to a better educated and more large-town electorate. And the country-wide recognized candidate who could talk to the electorate a small different, the left is besides far gone. The possible has no uncertainty president Włocławka, Krzysztof Kukucki, but there is little and little time to even introduce Poles to this character.
Who's gonna be the better president?
Of course, for left-wing voters, more crucial than the chances of this party's candidate in the presidential election will be what the KO candidate will be if he wins. Without uncertainty the sensitivity of the left electorate – which, never adequate to remind, is rather liberal in Poland present – will be closer to Trzaskowski. The president of Warsaw fits into the image of a liberal, modern, European President, serving the aspirations of a Europeanizing and liberalising part of Poland, which includes a large part of the left-wing electorate.
Sikorski with his anti-communist card, his stay in Afghanistan, his experience in the issue of defence, a firm or even a bit of angular image, finally, the manor in Chobielin fits alternatively in the conservative image of the head of state. Sikorski's backroom, specified as Roman Gierty or Michał Kamiński, can be a problem for the left-wing electorate.
Although it can be believed that Sikorski will not, as president, block the partnerships and liberalization of abortion rules, his triumph in the primaries in KO, and then in the presidential election may somewhat shift the full government arrangement to the right, symbolically strengthen the right leg in the form of PSL and Poland 2050, weakening the left's aggressivity in the coalition.
But Trzaskowski is simply a safer option?
There is 1 more criterion: which of these 2 will have a better chance of defeating the PiS candidate in the second round? due to the fact that the failure of a candidate for a democratic camp can put an end to the full political coalition task on October 15. And despite all the disappointments that these governments sometimes affect for left-wing voters, they are a task worth giving at least 1 full term. Especially considering what alternatives look like. And in this respect, the safer option seems to be inactive Trzaskowski, she has a better chance of bringing victory.
So who do you think your fingers are for? The criteria are at least 3 – the chances of the left candidate in the election, the form of the presidency, the chances of defeating the PiS candidate – and there are no easy answers. So everyone, depending on their preferences, must respond in their own political conscience.
