Although any time remains until summertime vacation, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) has already published its first long-term forecast for the vacation period of 2025. According to information from Dr. Radosław Droźdoloł of IMGW, this year's free time is forecasting above the multiannual average.
The expert points out that long-term forecasts cannot find precise temperatures, storms or rainfall in Poland. It explains that specified forecasts disagree from short-term forecasts that accurately inform about the weather for the coming days (e.g. temperature, precipitation and wind). Long-term forecasts only indicate whether a given period will be characterized by a temperature lower, consistent with the standard, or higher than the average.
According to forecasts, in June in most of the Polish territory the average monthly air temperature will most likely be higher than the average from 1991-2020. Meteorologist adds that only in the south of Poland the expected temperature will comply with the standard. In addition, it informs that the monthly amount of precipitation throughout the country should stay within the limits of the multiannual standard.
According to Drozdroła's forecast, in July, as in the erstwhile period, the average temperature in the country is likely to exceed the multiannual standard of 1991-2020. At the same time, the amount of precipitation is expected to stay within average limits. August, according to forecasts, will keep a trend from erstwhile months, characterized by temperatures higher than the multiannual average. Despite this, the amount of precipitation in this period is expected to be typical for this period.
It is worth noting that long-term forecasts are based on advanced numerical models that take into account many factors specified as climate change, oceanic and atmospheric cycles. Thanks to these models, meteorologists can foretell trends and changes in the weather for longer periods.
With respect to statistics, in the last 10 years the temperature in Poland has increased by about 0.5°C. According to the Central Statistical Office data, in 2020 the average temperature in Poland was 8.4°C, which was 0.3°C higher than in 2010.
It is besides worth remembering that weather can have a crucial impact on the economy and the environment. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and agrarian improvement data, in 2020 the weather was liable for losses in agriculture worth about PLN 2.5 billion. Therefore, long-term forecasts are so crucial as they let farmers and hosts to prepare for changes in the weather and manage their resources accordingly.
In conclusion, this year’s free time promises to be warm and sunny. Long-term forecasts indicate that we will have temperatures above average and a norm of long-term precipitation. Regardless of the weather, it is worth remembering about safety and health, especially during sports and outdoor recreation.
