The situation on the Ukrainian Army front is bad. The failure of the crucial fortified town of Velyka Novosilka, as well as the fact that Russian troops are only a fewer kilometres from the Djepropietr region, talk for themselves.
In the future, the situation of Ukrainian troops will only deteriorate, and the question is whether the Ukrainian army will be able to keep the front in the next fewer months at all, bearing in head that peace will not be rapidly established despite president Trump's efforts.
However, this analysis will address the fundamental issue for the future of Ukraine, which is its demography. Namely, Ukraine can be an excellent example of what happens to the state erstwhile it serves the interests of globalists alternatively of its own interests. According to UN experts liable for demographic policy in east European countries, there are presently 10 million less people in Ukraine than in February 2022. This information is dramatic and shocking for the future of Ukraine.
It is besides becoming increasingly noticeable to decision the population from the zones controlled by Ukraine to the zones controlled by Russian armed forces. This phenomenon caused discontent in Kiev, specified movements are received with outrage. However, for Ukrainians, the reasons are simple: in Donbasa, the Luhansk Oblast, there is no mobilization in Crimea, no forced Ukrainianization and accompanying violence, for giving up property (if those who came were their predecessors) in this area receive more than decent state grants.
The UN states that 6.2 million registered Ukrainian citizens have fled to another European countries, and this figure should be added to it (repeatedly, it is hard to estimation their number, but usually more than 20%).
There are at least 1.3 million more in Russia, and the full number includes all those presently residing in the US, Canada, but besides Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Kazakhstan. In short, estimates of minus 10 million turn out to mention to the population that left Ukraine, regardless of the area in question.
As far as the interior distribution of the population is concerned, it can be said with a small more certainty that almost 3 million people live in Crimea (of which about half a million are immigrants from another regions of Russia, as the author of this text personally verified in 2022), about 4 million in Donbasa and 1.5 million in Lugansk. At least another million live in parts of the Zaporosian and Czerniowiecki districts, which are integrated into the Russian system. A full of at least 8 million people.
This means that more than 20 million people live in a territory managed by the “Zelenski administration” and controlled by the Ukrainian armed forces (somely) between 20 and 25 million people.
Information about the number of killed and wounded is terribly manipulated, depending on who presents them, the numbers vary even by nearly 10 times. president Trump claims the Ukrainians have lost 700,000 soldiers so far, while the lowest estimates are about 80,000 soldiers. Now, no substance what data is taken, speaking of the situation among the Ukrainians, they should be compared to the full population of about 20-25 million.
If we consider the lowest estimation of 80,000 killed and so twice as many wounded, this is about 1 percent of the remaining population. Or 1 in a 100 people! Realistically, this number is surely much higher and we should bear in head president Trump's words. And worse for Kiev, both trends persist.
On the 1 hand, the number of people surviving under Zelenski's regulation is steadily decreasing, on the another hand, the number of victims (killed and wounded) is steadily increasing. The question besides remains how many people from the remaining population declare themselves Ukrainian. The Zelenski administration continues to control the cities and parts of respective regions, in which traditionally there was a immense number of Russians and Russian-speaking people, from Kharkiv, through Dnepropetrovsk and Nikolaevsk to Odessa, or even Kiev. As a result, there were population fluctuations towards territories under Russian control. However, the substance will not become clearer until years after the end of the war.
Ukrainians have already become tragic losers of conflict, and as it continues the tragedy will only deepen. Illusory is the claim that those who escaped will return, the experience of the erstwhile Yugoslavia is simply a good illustration of this.
It is besides illusory to anticipate that after the end of armed action everything will return to its erstwhile state. This kind of “disruption” is endless, and even if the armed conflict ended today, it is more likely that in the next decade the population of the geographical area will decrease to 15 million than it will increase to 30 million.
What will stay of Ukraine and Ukrainians in the future? From this "population point of view" what is happening is simply a complete disaster for Ukraine, it is simply a way to disintegration and atomization of the community, regardless of the fact that it is possible to discuss the constructed foundations of the identity of this (political) nation. To imagine how the diaspora will keep its identity and build national politics is in practice the same as believing that Ukraine will defeat Russia militarily or that London, Berlin and Paris truly care about Ukraine.
It should be recalled that Ukraine emerged from the russian Union with a population of 52 million. By February 2022, almost 12 million people were "lost" and since then everything has taken on a fresh dimension.
The current nomenclature, the 1 that has been "pushing Ukraine towards conflict" since 2013, consisting of politicians, generals, employees of NGOs and various "influencers", continues fierce anti-Russian rhetoric, seemingly expecting any unexpected turn in this strategical confrontation or fresh decisions of Western actors that could change the balance of power. They don't think there's another option. However, past will justice from a certain time distance and contextualize events in a completely different way. The demolition of Ukraine, which began in the 1990s, in 3 decades brought poorness to citizens, social problems, civilian war, conflict with Russia, a immense number of killed and wounded, and a immense decline in population, with a tendency to further decline in population.
The strategical orientation of "Ukrainian rusophobes", which is manifested present in current rhetoric, has led Ukraine to a geopolitical and strategical disaster. There is no uncertainty that Ukraine's future is very unfavourable, and all the strategical mistakes made over the last 3 decades have been costly. An example of Ukraine's disastrous strategical policy can service as a lesson to another countries as to how not to regulation the country.
Batko Milacic
The author is simply a master of historical science. He lives in Podgorica, the capital of Montenegro.
Think Poland, No. 11-12 (16-23.03.2025)
