Paulina Pacuła's text is the fruit of cooperation between political criticism and independent Polish and Hungarian editorials, in which we look at crucial issues from the position of both countries.
Very arrogant of Donald Trump's victory it spreads on the planet political scene even before the authoritative inauguration, which will take place on 20 January 2025.
The president elect is already breaking the rules of diplomatic protocol and personally invites abroad leaders to curse in. Invitations come from the key of geopolitical meaning or ideological proximity.
A individual invitation to the January inauguration was received, among others, by China's leader Xi Jinping, president of Argentina Javier Milei, Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni, and even erstwhile Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
Law and Justice politician has just been nominated as the fresh head of the European Conservatives and Reformists organization – a European political faction close to the American alt-right with which Trump is associated.
In fresh weeks, the president-elect has been very happy to give interviews. They give an outline of what we can anticipate in the first 100 days of his presidency.
Trump's statements are full of exaggerations, admiration for themselves and false statements. A small over an hour's interview with the weekly "Time", conducted on the occasion of giving Trump the title "Man of the Year", contains at least 15 statements that they disinformation on key issues. A akin dimension interview with NBC – over 20.
We are briefly presenting the foundations of Trump's political plan that could affect Europe. Then we will consider how this affects the situation of Poland.
Trump's plan in brief
What does Trump want to bet on in the first 100 days of the White House?
In both major interviews he has given in fresh weeks, he pointed out that his precedence would be to fight illegal immigration into the US, expel all illegal migrants from the country and seal the border.
In his statements he repeatedly argued that migration to the US primarily concerns "criminalists and people released from psychiatric hospitals", as he argued, quoting very inflated data. Thus, the president-elect consciously captures the false image of migration to the States, which will justify the implementation of ruthless or even illegal policies.
Trump was asked whether he intended to give approval to deportations resulting in the separation of families (e.g. erstwhile parents are deported and children born in the United States have citizenship), whether he maintained a plan to legally modify the rules of citizenship (he announced in the run that citizenship should not be granted to any individual born in the United States, even though specified a declaration is in the American Constitution) and whether he intended to grow detention centres where people awaiting deportation would be closed.
The President-elect confirmed these plans, while stressing that he "obviously prefers deportations to be carried out in a human manner, without separating families" and that there is no request to keep people in detention centres rapidly and efficiently.
However, he explicitly declared that his aim was to deport all illegal migrants. erstwhile asked what he would do if there was a problem with carrying out deportations, due to the fact that 3rd countries would refuse to accept returnees from the US, he said he would hotel to blackmail: he would endanger to impose duties on products originating in those countries.
The next precedence is to improve the economical situation of the States. Trump promises explicitly that it will lead to lower prices for basic food products and higher minimum wage.
Also an crucial component of his announcements are declarations on improving the profitability of American manufacture and reindustrialisation of the US. Trump promises that abroad companies will bring production to the US, thus creating fresh jobs, alternatively than placing it in countries with cheaper labour.
One of the tools to aid accomplish this goal is to introduce customs duties on those products from abroad that are sold underselling prices, which makes their production in the US no longer profitable. It is thanks to customs that companies are to choose to open production facilities in the USA to increase the profitability of production on the US market.
As an example of effective usage of Trump duties, it is fond of the case of washing device production by Whirlpool in Ohio. He claims that the imposition of 20% of duties on home appliances imported from Mexico and South Korea during his first presidency saved Whirlpool from falling, preventing thousands of redundancies. CNN has verified that Trump is regularly missing the fact erstwhile explaining the impact of duties on the economy.
Conducting policy by customs
Customs play a very crucial function in Donald Trump's political plan. It is not only intended to service economical purposes, i.e. to contribute to the relocation of production to the US and to the "balancing of accounts" with countries with which the US has a trade deficit (including China, Mexico, Canada and the EU).
Donald Trump says openly that duties will be applied by his administration as a tool for negotiation and political blackmail.
President-elect consistently stresses that "customs are a beautiful word" and that they will "make the USA rich". For example, the usage of customs as a tool of emphasis is served by talks with the Prime Minister of Canada and the president of Mexico on sealing borders – both for stopping the flow of illegal migrants and drugs.
In an interview with NBC Trump reported as it was allegedly during a dinner at his Mar-a-Lago residence that threatened both leaders with the introduction of 25% of duties on all imports to the US, unless the boundaries were immediately sealed. His account shows that the threat was immediate: “On the second day, I call the border defender and ask how things are at the border. There is no 1 here – the guards answer. They couldn't believe it. It was the army on the another side that stopped the caravans of people," Trump said.
He besides stressed in both interviews that the threat of imposing duties was to be an crucial tool in communication with China. The Chinese are to fear American customs and will so "stop playing with us," said Trump at NBC.
In an interview with the weekly “Time” he went even further. He stated that the threat of introducing duties could be "stopped by war", threatening the conflicting parties to impose 100% of the duties on imports into the USA.
End of war in the mediate East and Ukraine
Trump declares that he intends to end the war in Ukraine and the mediate East as shortly as possible. He is no longer brave adequate to claim that he will do so on the first day of his rule, but maintains that this is an absolute precedence for him.
Ukraine, however, has no reason to rejoice. Trump clearly states that the limitation of aid to Ukraine is ‘very likely’, considering withdrawing the decision of the administration Biden's consent to the usage of the weapons supplied by the Americans to carry out attacks deep inside Russia and consistently in his statements equates the position of Ukraine and Russia as 2 sides leading a “brotherly fight”, completely disregarding the fact that Russia is the aggressor.
On Monday, December 16, during a press conference in Mar-a-Lago Trump went further in declarations concerning Ukraine. He said that "both sides must decide to make peace as shortly as possible", and part of his statements relativizing the value of Ukrainian lands occupied by Russia (Trump stressed that these areas are completely ruined), was read as a proposition that Ukraine should consider territorial concessions for Russia.
So, most likely, Donald Trump will search to end the fighting between Ukraine and Russia and to halt support for Ukraine regardless of its territorial sovereignty.
“Fixing of accounts” within NATO
Trump is frequently asked about intentions towards NATO. In the election campaign, he repeatedly suggested that the US would either step out of the alliance or not jointly defend allies if these "don't start paying their bills", i.e. allocate at least 2% of GDP to defence.
In fresh interviews, the Republican continues to emphasise the importance of "fixing accounts" and that "Europe must start to treat the US fairly". This refers to 3 points:
– To compensate for the EU trade deficit (it accuses Europe that it buys very small from the US and at the same time expects support in defence);
– Equalisations in support of Ukraine (Trump does not like that it is the USA that puts more than Europe in support of Ukraine);
– Equalisation in defence budgets.
As far as NATO defence spending is concerned, according to the Stockholm global Peace investigation Institute, the threshold of 2% of defence spending does not exceed 19 of the 32 NATO associate States. Including as crucial as Germany, Italy, Sweden or Turkey.
In an interview with NBC Trump, he made it clear: if members of the alliance are to devote at least 2% of the defence budget, the US will stay in NATO.
What does this mean for Poland?
The latest interviews of the future president of the United States thus indicate that any of his most disturbing announcements may be a political bluff.
Threatening the possible withdrawal from NATO, Donald Trump wants to give the impression that he effectively mobilizes the alliance associate states to increase defence spending. Meanwhile, according to the analysis of the Atlantic Council, the mobilisation of allies to invest in defence actually increased, but mainly due to Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Prior to the full-scale war, the threshold of 2% of GDP for defence purposes exceeded only 6 countries of the alliance. present it is 23 countries. publically voiced threats Donald Trump in a typical populist way is trying to attribute himself to the issue in which changes have been happening for any time.
This does not change the fact that the stableness of the alliance and its power to deter Trump's statements are very harmful.
The European safety strategy is based on the possible for deterrence. In the context of the war in Ukraine for east countries specified as Poland, this is peculiarly important.
This possible is straight dependent on the political strength of the alliance and the attachment of its members to allied commitments, especially the collective defense. If a nation with the largest army in NATO openly undermines its attachment to these principles, the deterrence capacity is decreasing at a geometric rate.
The United States besides plays an crucial function in filling the European defence gap resulting from the many years of underfinancing of the European armies. Without the U.S., the European defence is hollow. Within Europe alone, 100 000 American soldiers are presently stationed under NATO quotas.
Americans dominate the sea, the air and the space. They besides have atomic weapons, which consists of a European atomic umbrella. In terms of atomic deterrence, we are entirely on the American side.
The exit of the U.S. from NATO would be a immense shock to the alliance.
It would mean dismantling the transatlantic safety architecture, whose foundations were built after planet War II. Nothing would delight Russia or China more. If Trump actually believes what he's saying, and can imagine the U.S. beyond NATO safety architecture, it means only 1 thing: that the future American president completely does not realize the planet in which he lives.
New economical risks
If Donald Trump implements the announcement of the imposition of duties on products imported from EU countries to compensate for the trade deficit, this will adversely affect all EU countries, including Poland. Even if the duties are very precisely targeted, i.e. they will concern circumstantial products from circumstantial countries with which the US has a trade deficit.
The United States is the eighth largest marketplace for Polish exports, but the 4th largest exporter to the Polish market.
In 2023 Polish companies exported goods worth almost PLN 50 billion to the US, which represented 3.1 percent of the full Polish exports. At the same time, the value of imports from the US to Poland reached PLN 68.4 billion and represented 4.4 percent of full imports. Poland so does not have this problem in commercial relations with the US, which most irritates Donald Trump – the trade deficit.
But Poland has a problem indirectly – through links to the German economy.
Germany is the most problematic trading partner in Europe for the US. The US trade deficit with Germany reaches over $80 billion (this data for 2023) and it is this deficit Donald Trump will want to compensate.
The U.S. imports mainly cars, car parts, medical devices, medicines and machines from Germany. In his run before the presidential election, Donald Trump referred straight to the issue of US dependence on the European automotive industry. He promised straight that it would be European car manufacturers who would decision production to the US, where fresh jobs would be created.
For Poland Germany is the most crucial trading partner. They account for 28 percent of our exports and 20 percent of imports to Poland. Any disturbance on the German-US line, specified as the imposition of duties on products originating in Germany, will surely negatively affect the Polish economy.
Small support for Ukraine
A very disturbing subject in Donald Trump's political announcements is besides his attitude towards the Ukraine fighting Russia. Poland in territorial safety and stableness Ukraine sees not only its inalienable right to self-determination and sovereignty – according to the principles of global law – but besides its own national interest.
Secure Ukraine is simply a safe Poland – in short, it is possible to summarize the precedence of Polish east policy towards Kiev.
Since the start of the war, the U.S. has given far more than Europe to aid Ukraine. American aid is estimated at $175 billion and the EU at $130 billion. Meanwhile, it is clear that this level of aid allows Ukraine to at most not lose the war with Russia, but besides does not let it to win.
If Donald Trump decides to retreat U.S. support for Ukraine, the chances of EU countries filling in these drugs are very low.
It is hard for EU countries to build social acceptance even for the existing level of assistance. In the following EU countries, there is an increase in political forces that undermine the legitimacy of support for Ukraine – for example, in France there is very much support for both the cautious utmost right and the clearly other of helping Ukraine the utmost left. On a akin basis Geert Wilders Freedom Party won last year's election in the Netherlands. These are just 2 of the many examples.
President Zelenski underlines very clearly that Ukraine will not surrender and will not agree to territorial concessions with Russia. In any case, limiting US aid will have a very crucial impact on the situation of Ukraine and so on Poland's security. Here again – president Putin will feel the top joy about it.
Strengthening the far right
Donald Trump's presidency will be of large importance for both Poland and the EU as a whole, in another dimension: strengthening and political legitimacy of the national-conservative right and utmost right-wing discourses.
Trump is closely linked to the European utmost right environment. Especially from the sign of the European Conservatives and Reformers, or a group of political parties so far focused around the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and today, in connection with the taking over of leadership in the group, around Mateusz Morawiecki.
In a relation with Trump, Giorgia Meloni will inactive play the first violin. But Morawiecki, and behind him the PiS, will surely want to warm themselves in its luster, which may have a crucial impact on the conduct of Polish presidential elections.
Donald Trump in the public forum compliments Meloni and emphasizes ideological proximity to Italian Prime Minister and her political environment.
Commentators in the EU indicate that Donald Trump in the White home is an ideological wind in sails for national-conservative parties, as the most powerful country in the planet will talk the language of anti-liberals and conservatives again. Quoted by the planet media Trump will again movie anti-immigrant, anti-equality, transphobic narrative, legitimizing it with the power of his office.
In the Second Republican Presidency, we can so face another wave of erosion of democracy in the world.
This may be essential for Poland: if political support for the Law and Justice by the American administration translates into the triumph of the candidate of the national-conservative right in the presidential elections in Poland in May 2025. This will block the process of repairing democracy and restoring the regulation of law, and Poland will be stuck in the grey area for years.
**
Paulina Pacuła – writer Oko.press, previously worked on Polsat News, Money.pl portal, as a correspondent, published, among others, on the Euobserver portal, “Wszystko Tygodnik”, “Business Insider”. He is presently studying political discipline and global relations at the Institute of Political Studies PAS and Collegium Civitas, preparing for his doctorate. A scholarship holder of the American program for journalists of the Central east Journalism Fellowship Program and a winner of the Leopold Unger Award. He writes about democracy, global affairs and relations in the European Union.
