Last poll? In the leading two, 1 candidate clearly gains, the another loses

Three days before the first circular of the presidential election, the latest United Surveys poll for Virtual Poland was published. The results clearly show: Rafał Trzaskowski inactive leads, but loses momentum. Karol Nawrocki, a candidate supported by the Law and Justice, noted a noticeable increase in support and dangerously approaching the leader.

The president of Warsaw inactive opens the rate, but the consequence – 31.5 percent – means a decrease of 1.7 percent points compared to the survey of 7 May. This trend may be worrying in the Citizens' Coalition staff. If current dynamics persists, Trzaskowski may have a problem not only with winning in the first round, but besides with an advantage in the second.

Karol Nawrocki, president of the IPN, scored 26.6% – by 3.4 percent points more than in the erstwhile survey. This is the strongest weekly increase in the full ranking and a clear signal that the run of the right-wing candidate is beginning to bear fruit. The distance between him and the leader decreased to just 4.9 percent points. A week ago, the difference was over 10 points.

In 3rd place, Sławomir Mentzen is maintained with a score of 11.7 percent, but his quotations fell by 1.9 percent points. This may indicate stagnation or even weakening the mobilisation of the Confederate electorate at a decisive minute in the campaign. But many polls show that this candidate has been weakening for weeks and may even have a single-digit score.

Central rate: Hołównia, Biejat, Zandberg

Szymon Hołownia maintained 7.5% – unchanged compared to the erstwhile measurement. Magdalena Biejat recorded a slight increase – up to 6.7 percent (+0.6 pp). It is worth noting, however, that in another fresh poll (IBRiS for Onetu) the candidate left ahead of Holovnia and jumped to 4th place. Adrian Zandberg, her erstwhile partymate, scored 4.4 percent (+0.7 pp).

They are followed by Grzegorz Braun (4.1 percent, +0.6 pp), and then Joanna Senyszyn (2.4 percent, +1.8 pp), Marek Jakubiak (2%), +0.2 pp) and Krzysztof Stanowski (1.8 percent, +0.2 pp). The another candidates – Bartoszewicz, Woch and Maciak – together win 1.3% of support.

Second round: Trzaskowski inactive favored

In a possible second circular between Trzaskowski and Nawrock, the advantage is retained by the candidate KO. According to the study, Trzaskowski would score 56.2 percent, Nawrocki 43.8 percent. Although this is inactive a clear difference, its stableness can be deceptive – especially if Nawrocki's growth trend continues.

The survey was carried out on 13-15 May on a typical example of 1500 people, CATI and CAWI. The mistake margin is up to 3 percent points. This is most likely the last poll published before voting silence began.

The first circular is on Sunday 18 May. If no of the candidates gain more than 50% of the vote, the second will take place on 1 June. Faced with the increasing mobilisation of the right and declines at the favorite, the fresh days of the run could find the outcome.