At 21:00, polling stations were closed and Ipsos studio published exit poll results on behalf of TVP, TVN and Polsat. The survey indicates a fierce fight between the main candidates, but final results may inactive be changed.
What is exit poll and how reliable is it?
Exit poll is simply a poll conducted among voters right after they leave polling stations. Although it gives a preliminary image of electoral preferences, is not the same as the authoritative results. In the past there have been discrepancies between exit poll and final results.
Paweł Predko of Ipsos informed PAP that about 50,000 respondents, which increases its statistical credibility.
In this case, it should be stressed that the presidential elections disagree importantly from the parliamentary elections, both in terms of procedure and legal effects. 1 of the key differences is the deficiency of a presumption of validity of presidential elections, which, unlike parliamentary elections, must be approved by the ultimate Court (Article 129(1) of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland).
In accordance with Article 129(1) of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland:
“The validity of the president of the Republic’s election is stated by the ultimate Court.”
This work is presently being exercised by the Chamber of Extraordinary Control and Public Affairs of the ultimate Court. In view of the case-law of the Court of Justice of the European Union (e.g. Case C-585/18, C-624/18 and C-625/18) and of the European Court of Human Rights (e.g. Case C-585/18), and of the European Court of Human Rights (e.g. Case C-585/18), Reczkowicz p. Poland, complaint No 43447/19), it is indicated that this Chamber does not meet the standards of an independent and impartial court established by the Act. It includes persons appointed with gross violations of the regulation of law and constitutional procedures, including the engagement of a body called "neo-KRS", whose legality has been undermined by many judgments of national and global courts.
Therefore, regardless of the result of the second circular of the presidential election – regardless of whether candidate A or candidate B win – a major legal problem arises. The question of the legality of the body liable for the determination of the validity of the elections may lead to a situation where the ruling of the ultimate Court is not deemed to have been given by a court established in accordance with the law. Consequently, this may prevent the elected president from taking office effectively, as Article 130 of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland states that the president shall take office after taking his oath to the National Assembly, which requires prior determination of the validity of the election.
Such a situation could lead to serious constitutional chaos and destabilisation of state bodies. In utmost cases, it can be utilized by policy makers to introduce extraordinary constitutional measures specified as emergency or even martial law (based on Articles 229 to 234 of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland), which poses a serious hazard to the legal order and democratic strategy of the state.
Exit poll results: Who drives?
According to the latest data:
- Rafał Trzaskowski – 30.8%
- Karol Nawrocki – 29.1%
- Sławomir Mentzen – 15.4%
- Grzegorz Braun – 6.2%
- Adrian Zandberg – 5.2%
- Simon Holovnia – 4.8%
- Magdalena Biejat – 4.1%
The another candidates received little than 4% of support.
Election turnout and second round
Turnout in the presidential election [current turnout – PKW data should be supplemented]. If no of the candidates exceed 50% of the vote, The second circular will take place on 1 June.
Can exit poll be wrong?
In erstwhile elections, the differences between exit poll and authoritative results reached respective percent points. In 2020, exit polls indicated a minimal advantage for Andrzej Duda, but the final discrepancy was about 2%.
When do we get the authoritative results?
The State Election Commission is gradually publishing results from individual circuits. Full approved results should be known within 48 hours from closing down the premises.
Read more:
First exit poll results of the alleged presidential election in Poland
