Syria, Israel, Russia, Turkey. What is happening in the mediate East? [talking]

Kaja Puto: Can it be said that peace awaits Syria after years of terror?

Agnes Bryc: We don't know that yet. Syrian rebel leader Muhammad al-Djaulani assures that “what happened was not accidental, but planned over the years” and that the rebels have plans to resolve all crises in Syria. On the another hand, the situation is fluid and can evolve towards a Libyan script, or destabilization and civilian war. For example, if the fresh authorities do not communicate with Kurdami controlling the northwest of the country, either revives the alleged muslim State, or loyal forces will be built up against the fugitive president.

The future of Syria depends on whether al-Daulan can stabilise the situation in the country. The problem remains the Kurds issue in the north, who suspended the erstwhile fight against ISIS to full focus on confronting the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). However, it must be acknowledged that the transitional government acts methodically and efficiently.

What do you mean?

He suspended the constitution and parliament for 3 months, calls on officials not to abandon their positions, and ensures that he will establish “rules of law” and punish all those who have committed crimes against the Syrian people.

The mystery is whether the fresh authorities will introduce the Sharia Law as regards Kurds and Christians. They effort to convince that they are “moderate jihadists”, which is simply a classical oxymoron. However, it seems that the planet is slow buying it due to the fact that it does not compare fresh power in Syria with the Taliban in Afghanistan but alternatively with the Sheikans of the Persian Gulf. We will see if the American administration removes HTS from the list of terrorist organizations on which it entered in 2018.

HTS, or Levant Liberation Organization, which took power in Syria.

Exactly. The Levant Liberation Organization, or Hajat Tahrir ash-Sham, is simply a coalition of various jihadist militias, which was formed in 2017. It originates from Jabhat Al-Nusra, a subsidiary of Al-Qaeda in Syria. Her leader Abu Muhammad al-Djaulani (the real name is Ahmad Hussein asz-Szar) broke up in 2016 with Al-Qaeda and the ideology of global jihad replaced the ideology of national jihad. Which means he concentrated on taking over power in Syria.

HTS has been controlling the Syrian state of Idlib since 2015. On this basis, can we conclude what Syria will be ruled by al-Jaulani?

Controlled by HTS, the state of Idlib was converted to the alleged embryo-state, where the al-Daulani group subdued competitive militias and he himself consolidated power. At the same time, he began to make himself on a moderate, thus acceptable to erstwhile enemies in the West. He dropped the turban, began dressing in jackets and shirts, and besides giving interviews to Western media. This was how he jihadist extremist imaged and sought legitimacy in the West.

He is besides helped by good preparation for taking power. The prime minister of the interim government was Muhammad al-Bashir, a erstwhile rebel admin of the Idlib administration. After acquiring Aleppo there, he coordinated the resumption of the public sector, municipal services and administration, calling on officials from the erstwhile government to return to their duties despite the change of power.

Israel occupied the buffer belt at Golan Hills. Why?

This is simply a preemptive and preventive operation, at least that's what the Israeli authorities say. Danny Danon, a typical of Israel to the UN, assured that his country would not engage in conflict in Syria, and the seizure of the buffer region established in 1974 was a defensive and temporary movement until he could warrant safety along the border.

Does this mean that Israel will return the territory of Syria erstwhile the situation in the country stabilises?

I uncertainty it. Even if he withdraws from the buffer belt, I don't think the Israelis are willing to quit Mount Hermon. It is of strategical importance to Israel's security. He is simply a natural fortress, now completely in Israeli hands. IDF can place radar systems there and observe both Syria and Lebanon, providing early warning. On the another hand, Israeli intelligence has just gained more chance to perceive to enemy communication.

At the same time, Israel is conducting a large operation to destruct Syria's military potential.

Israel's defence forces (IDF) praised that they destroyed more than 80% of Syrian anti-air defense, its naval fleet, chemical weapons depots. Prime Minister Binjamin Netanyahu said that the Israeli army bombed strategical military facilities left by the Syrian army of the overthrown Assad regime, “so that they would not fall into the hands of the jihadists.” He declared that Israel was ready to establish relations with the fresh Syrian leaders, but would not hesitate to attack if they posed a threat to Israel or would let Iran to be restored there.

How did the al-Jaulani respond to this?

In an interview with Syrian news television, he stressed that Israel "no more excuses" to attack and that the fresh authorities in Damascus were not seeking conflict. He suggested " diplomatic solutions" to prevent regional escalation.

How does this affect the situation of Druzów - a number in the south-western region of Syria? I saw a video of Druz from Hader village calling to join Israel.

In fact, there's a video on social media. "If we gotta choose, we will choose the lesser evil," which in this case means asking to join the Israel-controlled Golan Hills. This material has not yet been verified, so we have no confirmation that the Druzes truly want to integrate with Israel. In general, however, the situation of the Kurds should be more worrying, The druzes will communicate with all government.

Why?

It's actually Druzów's specificity and the wisdom that comes from the fact that as a community they are divided into the borders of the countries in which they live. To last as a minority, they are loyal to local power. This illustrates very well the position achieved by the Druzs in Israel, being a highly appreciated group of soldiers in the IDF, specialized in reinsanes.

Russia withdrew its troops from Syria. Can we anticipate to strengthen Russia's military possible in the war on Ukraine?

Moscow has not withdrawn its troops from Syria yet. Equipment and soldiers were partially evacuated, but negotiations are inactive underway with the fresh authorities on 2 issues. The first are safety guarantees for Russian evacuation troops The Syrians gave them. The second is the issue of Russia's possible maintenance of access to 2 key bases for Moscow in Syria, Tartus and Humeymi. The Kremlin is doing everything to keep its Syrian fronts under control, but it is besides crucial that talks may fail.

As to the threat of strengthening Russia's military possible in the war with Ukraine, this effect took place in 2022. Moscow then drastically reduced its military presence in Syria, moved most of the equipment for the run in Ukraine, and left fewer more than 7,000 soldiers in Syria, fundamentally the personnel needed to operate its bases.

The failure of Assad weakens Russia and Iran. Does this mean strengthening Turkey at the same time?

Definitely. Turkey is the main beneficiary of the overthrow of the Assad regime. The current government protectors in Damascus, Iran and Russia are “out”, and Turkey is “in”. The shift to the geopolitical map is primarily due to the breakdown (but not to the destruction) of the alleged opposition axes, namely states and organisations allied with Iran. Hezbollah licks wounds in Lebanon after a fast war against Israel, Syria has been taken over by pro-Turkish and jihadist militias, and Iran fears it will be next. What happens next depends mainly on the policy that Donald Trump will gotta lead after being sworn in as president of the United States.

Can Europe anticipate at least any refugees to return to Syria? Will it be harder for Syrians to stay in Europe?

We are already noticing the return of any Syrian refugees to the country. However, this is not a mass trend, and the future of Syria is inactive uncertain. This was confirmed by the UN advanced Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi, who said that millions of refugees are carefully assessing whether it is safe to return to Syria in the face of a inactive precarious situation. Their position will besides change if European countries recognise the fresh authorities in Damascus and Syria as a safe country.

For now, Germany, the United Kingdom, Spain and Italy have stopped examining asylum applications. Turkey has announced a plan to open additional border crossing points, foreseeing an increase in voluntary return as stableness in Syria improves. However, the UN recommends European countries not to rush to repatriate refugees to the country after the collapse of the Assad regime. A UN peculiar Envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, said that "there are inactive life-threatening challenges."

What are the threats?

Although we do not know how the fresh authorities will treat cultural minorities – Kurds and spiritual minorities – alawits and Christians. It is not known whether civilian liberties will be respected, i.e. opposition to HTS – an organization which professes the slogan of jihadism. Finally, it cannot be excluded that al-Daulani will not stabilise the interior situation and external players, for example Turkey, will exert force on the forceful pacification of Kurd's autonomy. Russia and Iran, on the another hand, may search to rebuild their influence in Syria.

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Agnes Bryc – a doctorate in politics. Assistant at the Faculty of Sciences on Politics and safety at Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń. associate of the east Studies Centre Council. He deals with Russia's abroad policy and Israel's security.