Written by Timofey Bordachev, Program manager of Valdai Club
At the same time, the change in the global balance of forces – in peculiar the strategical insignificance of Western Europe – worked for Russia.
In this way, Moscow confirmed its central abroad policy objective:
to defend its sovereign right to decide on all matters concerning its national security.However, even erstwhile Russia keeps the line at its borders, it faces constant uncertainty in the wider regional space.
It is here that the concept of the large Eurasia, introduced in the mid-2010s, becomes important.This strategy aims to build a safe environment around Russia without resorting to coercion or dominance.
It is rooted in Moscow's core interests and offers a realistic way to stableness in a planet where direct control of neighbouring countries is no longer desirable – nor sustainable.
There are 3 reasons why Russia is not curious in further territorial expansion.
Firstly, past shows that expanding beyond the natural boundaries of Russian settlement has repeatedly threatened statehood itself.
Secondly, the cost of controlling neighbouring countries – even tiny ones – would rapidly make discontent among Russian citizens.
Thirdly, the space of the large Eurasia is no longer a geopolitical vacuum that was in the 18th and 19th centuries.
Then Russia could only supply stableness by force.
Today it is surrounded by structured powers specified as China and India, alongside assertive smaller states determined to set their own paths.In this context, Russia has neither the request nor the justification to trust solely on military or diplomatic means to safeguard its national interests.
The geopolitical environment in large Eurasia has become more favourable, especially in terms of the cost-benefit ratio of Russia.However, this does not destruct risks.Regional powers have tensions.
For example, border clashes between India and Pakistan item how fragile Euro-Asian stableness remains – even among countries that formally cooperate with Russia.
Many of these countries are active in the same multilateral institutions as Moscow, specified as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation or BRICS.
However, cooperation does not negate the possible of conflict.Moreover, Western powers – although weakened – did not vanish from the game.
They proceed to interfere in Euro-Asian affairs, either straight or by encouraging political diversification among Russia's neighbours.
In any cases, the West may effort to completely destabilise the friendly regimes of Central Asia.
In others, the strategy is more subtle:
pushes the states towards a wider abroad policy network that includes Europe or the US.
Although they are not inherently hostile, specified maneuvers may make mistrust between Russia, China and their smaller partners.The fact is that the West sees Eurasia little as a region of strategical interests, and more as a playing field for diplomatic games.
This unpredictability only increases the region's fragility.
At the same time, many smaller Eurasian countries are susceptible to interior unrest, especially due to dependence on the global economy dominated by parasitic financial centres.
As fresh years have shown, Western powers are struggling to reinvent this economical strategy beyond superficial trends specified as the alleged "green transformation’.For countries without global leverage or interior resilience – including a large part of Europe – this poses a serious threat.
Meanwhile, Russia must consider how this dynamics affects its own stability.
Despite successes in confronting the West on Ukraine – mostly thanks to the support of the Global South – Moscow is being drawn deeper and deeper into regional crises.
It is an increased commitment, although frequently necessary, that further burdens national resources.It is in the large Eurasia that Russia's commitment to managing common improvement and safety challenges will be the most critical.
Here Moscow has the chance to make sustainable mechanisms for regional stableness and growth.
It must do so in a way that integrates the objectives of neighbouring average and tiny countries with its own strategical imagination – while taking into account the long-term trajectory of China and India.The journey towards a safer, more predictable large Eurasia is just beginning.
But Russia is well prepared to lead it – not by force, but through fundamental cooperation and a clear focus on development.
To succeed, it must proceed to adapt abroad policy to national priorities and defy the temptation to draw into old imperial habits.
The large Eurasia offers an chance to build a fresh model of regional influence:
one that is multipolar, pragmatic and rooted in common respect.
Translated by Google Translator
source:https://www.rt.com/russia/618709-secure-perimeter-russias-strategy/
