Commander-in-Chief of the combined forces of the Russian army, separated to carry out the alleged peculiar War Operation in Ukraine, General Walery Gierasimw has reason to be satisfied, and Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army, General Alexander of Syria to legitimate concern.
At the threshold of the autumn 'razputica', which will partially inhibit the fighting, the Ukrainian army is fundamentally retreating on all section of the front. Most of her units were beaten or importantly bled, and the forces of the alleged strategical Reserve exhausted. The morale of the Ukrainian military is at a low level, desertion is spreading and deficiency of religion in success. On the Russian side there are signs of fatigue and exhaustion, but it inactive has offensive potential.
Russia's strategy of "painting" Ukrainian troops, combined with a suicide Ukrainian strategy, which can be defined by the rule of "no step back", began to bring results to the Russian army. The territorial conquests of the Russian side are not small, but it is fair to admit that they are not impressive. However, what most Western analysts do not see, they were not the mark of the main summer- autumn offensive. General Gierasimov sought to exterminate Ukrainian troops throughout the front line, leading the main attack on Pokrowsk, auxiliary south of Donetsk and on another cuts, only tying the forces of the opponent.
The Ukrainian side has fundamentally exhausted its own reserves and local tactical crises have turned into a number of operational crises, according to Gierasimov. Their deepening during the winter period as a consequence of the planned Russian winter offensive could lead Ukrainians to a crisis of strategical importance. Desperate, devoid of logic on the grounds of war art, a brawling Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk direction, only worsened the situation of Kiev's troops.
The Russian autumn-year offensive reached its climax, so let us look at the situation on the fronts.
‘Dniepr Group“
Tieplinski was expected to defend the routing, but painfully the Ukrainians "bitten". In the strategical plan of Stalka, the troops of the “Dniepr” Group, commanded by General Michał Jurewicz Tieplinski, had a passive role. They were ordered to keep the river rung, safe the front section from infiltrating the forces of the opponent, which could operate offensively towards Crimea. The only, nevertheless crucial offensive task was the order to destruct the remains of the Ukrainian bridgehead close Krynkami, which was performed in the first half of July.
A dynamic, inventive commander of Russian WDW (Voice Air-Desantov), despite limited forces, would not be himself if he remained idle. At the disposal of the "Dniepr" Group, they were directed, to rest, supplement and train the paratrooper units. The 83rd Infantry Squadron, 7th and 76th defender Squadrons, as well as the permanently formed from scratch of the 104th Air-Desant Division, came here periodically. These elite units decided to usage the general.
Additionally, 2 and periodically 3 Marine Brigades and the 10th Specnaz Brigade entered the composition of the 18th Army.
In the course of the multi-monthly "lifting war", Russian forces drove out Ukrainian troops from most islands and islands on Dnieper, forcing Ukrainians to deep defensive. In the course of the summertime fights and after the Ukrainian raid on the direction of the Kursk forces of the Dniepr Group, they had to hand over many units, which were transferred to another sections of the front in this hen, where they fought, among others, the 810 Guarded Marine Brigade or paratroopers.
Tieplinski utilized to the maximum the subordinate peculiar units, which with drone attacks and well coordinated cooperation of drone operators with artillery units, including 227 artillery brigades, 180, 81 and 8 artillery regiments, made devastating artillery strikes on Ukrainian units.
In general, the “Dniepr Group” has done the task, destroyed the base at Krynkami, and further restored the islands to Dnieper. As a consequence of the Tieplinian invention, active defence destroyed a mass of Ukrainian equipment including artillery and eliminated many soldiers of Ukrainian units occupying the right bank of Dnieper.
East Group
Commanded by Lieutenant General Aleksandra Sanchika, the bleeding “East” group defending Zaporozh, has been assigned secondary tasks. Units of the 58th Military Army last year took on the main hit of the Ukrainian Army during the large summertime offensive. Heroic and victorious fighting at Rabotine has forever entered the past of Russian weapons. It was here that the Russian army, based on well-built fortification lines and skillful defence and thanks to the heroic attitude of its own soldiers, destroyed the offensive possible of the Ukrainian army, built with the engagement of immense resources, weapons, advice and training, NATO countries.
The summertime run 2023, winter and spring 2024, during which the bloody battles attempted to recover and most of the areas under Rabotino, Wierbowe, Staromajorskie and Urożyne were recovered exhausted by the Russian “East” Groupings, despite its support with Stawki reserves, including 7 and 76 Guardry Desert-Sturm Squadions.
During the summertime activities the “East” group yet drove the Ukrainians out of the Rabotine area and won the Urożyne by reaching the prefield of Makarska.
Quite a amazing maneuver in the beginning of October on the left flank, after the dry area of Kurachovsky Basin and the abandoned dam on the Janczekrak River, Russian forces entered the area of the area of the area of the Kamienskoje settlement. The Ukrainian 2nd Independent Battalion was completely amazed by the action of the recently formed 49th Infantry and Assault Brigade.
Generally, the Russians in Zaporozh did not arrive in the summertime of 2024, they joined Ukrainian forces, but in the autumn both sides began regrouping reserves on this area, which could, but does not necessarily prove the anticipation of activating on this section of the front.
Southern Group – gain the fortress of Ugledar, break the front, go to the confederate outskirts of Kurachowo
The confederate Group under the Russian plan of summertime offensive operations was to carry out the second crucial task. Above all, circular and capture the town-fortress Wuhledar/Ugledar, then break up Ukrainian troops and approach the broad front break from the south to the Kurachovo fortress. In general, the Russians were expected to come here in respective episodes to come out on the Kurachowo Road, Ostrowsko Konstantinopolskie, Maksymiwka, Szachtarski, Wielka Nowościerka.
To carry out this complex task, the stakes were separated by the 29th National Military Army, 35th Army, National Military Army, 41th National Military Army, 8th Guarded National Military Army and 68th Army Corps.
On the right flank of Donetsk, the 150 Guards' forces of the Berlin Idrick firearm Division captured Georgiwa , they are presently fighting for Maximilianivke and are about 5 km from the town of Kurachów fortress.
Approaching below 20 Przykarpacko Berlin Guards Division of Mechanized Rifles, after capturing Konstantinivka is presently fighting for villages of Antoniwka and Jełazitivka.
In the action region of the 68th Army Corps, the Russians following the capture of the Wodiana and the powerful mine of the Tranodonbaska-3 approach in the general axis to the village of Bogojawlenka.
The 29th Military Army carried out the main task of the fall-year run and captured the town's fortress Wuhledar/Ugledar defended by the 72nd Brigade Mechanized by the Black Zaporozhists.
The fortress was captured, flanked by 36 Mechanized firearm Brigades, 57 Mechanized firearm Brigades, 430 Mechanized firearm Regiment, and from the right flanks separated forces of the 5th Independent defender of the Armoured Brigade and the “Storm” unit of the 40th Guarded Marine Brigade and operators of the 14th Specnaz Brigade with support from squadrons of the 200th Artillery Brigade.
The 72nd Mechanized Brigade was beaten but not broken. The Russians according to their school of city acquisition winged Wuhledar bilaterally leaving the “corridor” to the other of the fortress garrison. any kind of agreement was concluded and Ukrainian forces withdrew and Russian took over the city. Thus the Russians avoided bloody fighting in urbanized areas. From here we did not observe any pictures or videos of Ukrainian prisoners of war.
The neighbors of 72 Mechanized Black Zaporoce Brigades failed. First on the Russian right flank, the 40th Independent Marine Brigade and 5th Independent Guards Armoured Brigade crashed the Ukrainian 58th Mechanized Brigade. And then the forces of the 68th Army Corps beat the Ukrainians by capturing the Wojane.
After the conflict it turned out that the commander of 186th Battalion 123th Brigade of Ukrainian Territorial Defence Colonel Igor Hryba He committed suicide. The reason was the escape of his battalion, who refused to follow orders and left his positions under Wuhledar. And this brigade was expected to hold the "corridor" to which the forces defending the fortress of Wuhledar were to withdraw. This large defection forced the local Ukrainian command to agree with the Russian troops and to leave the garrison in a fixed corridor, without dense weapons and ammunition, leaving badly wounded.
Currently units of the 40th Independent Marine defender Brigade captured the village of Zolota Niwa and are advancing towards the large Novgoose. The 5th Armoured Brigade attacks in the direction of Novoukrainke and Chess. The artillery support is provided by the 30th Artillery Brigade.
In general, after winning Wuhledar, the Russian side began to carry out part II of the task, i.e. you are following the routing indicated by Stawka. The Ukrainian side clearly on this section of the front has no reserves to support the defense, as the weakened 72th Mechanized Brigade was not relaxed and sent back to replenish, and casts another line of defense.
In general, Ukrainian forces in the confederate Donetsk operational direction were beaten and retreated.
Center Group
General Andrei Morvidtev He was given the main task of the stake: “to break the forces of the opponent, to break the front and to eliminate/neutralise the 2 main logistics nodes Pokrwsk and Kurachowe. The city's fortresses of Toreck and Jar Times are stormed by auxiliary strikes.”
In order to carry out the above-mentioned task, the bet has separated immense forces. On the right wing was the 3rd Guards' Military Army supported by WDW units including the 98th Guards' Air-Desant Division and the 11th Armed Forces Squadron, and in the first phase of Operation 106th Guards' Air-Desant Division. These forces attacked the town-fortress of Jar Times, achieving any tactical successes there in the summer, pushing troops of defenders behind the Donbas Siewierski Canal.
Distributed forces of the 51st Guarded Military Army storm the town of Toreck fortress and in the course of the fall-year run broke the outer ringing of defence of the fortress. presently Ukrainian defenders are already fighting in the city centre, cut by Russians into 2 sectors. The destiny of the fortress seems determined.
The main strike, Mordwiczov in the direction of Pokrowsk and Kurachov, is carried out by: 2nd Guarded National Military Army, 41st National Military Army, units subordinate to the Central Military District, specified as the 90th Guarded Armored Division and the main forces of 51st National Military Army and many reserves of Staki in the form of reserve regiments formed and developed during mobilization in the fall of 2022.
During the campaign, the “Centre” group won respective villages and cities: Krasnogorovka, Ukraine, Nowogrodowka, Grodowka.
In order to save the front line, late August, General Syrian Alexander He obtained approval from president Zelenski to usage a large part of the strategical Reserve forces, whose brigades temporarily halted the Russian push on Pokrowsk in the prefields of Mirnograd. There are fighting Ukrainian soldiers from the 38th Marine Brigade, 425 "Skała" assault battalion, 71 and 152 Jegrów Brigade, 151 Mechanized Brigade and 14th National defender Brigade "Red Kalina" and operators from the 3rd peculiar Forces Regiment and remnants of the 25th Air-Desant Brigade.
However, the “Centre” group has Pokrowsk within the scope of artillery fire, due to the fact that the city is 6 km from the front Russian lines. So as a logistics hub and communication hub, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost their importance. The task given by the Pond was carried out by the subordinates of General Mordwigev.
In fresh weeks, the Russians have concentrated on the south, captured the city of Cukurine (Tsukurine) and overlook the rear of the Ukrainian garrisons defending the cities of Gorniak and Kurachiwka, and bilaterally flank the city of Selidov defended by the elite Ukrainian 15th Brigade of the National defender “Kara Dag”.
In order to halt the Russians who captured Cukurine, the Syrian general cast many forces: 116 Territorial Defence Brigade, 59 Motorised Brigade, 68 Jegres Brigade and 5 Armoured Brigade. The consequence of this short circuit will show the next fewer days. In general, it is here, under Pokrowski and Kurachow, that is the main battlefield of Russian autumn-year offensive operation.
The “West” group was to cut Ukrainian forces on the left bank of the river Osk to reject Ukrainian forces behind Zeriebiec.
Army “West” group commanded by General Sergei Kuzovleva were rather importantly weakened, due to the fact that it was from them that forces were separated for General Lapin's “North” group, leading a staged attack on Kharkiv and then, alarmingly to defend the hen by the Ukrainian offensive.
In general, Kuzowlew has the forces of the 20th National Army, the 25th Reserve National Army, and the weakened elite 1st Armored defender Army and the weakened 6th National Army.
On the another side, the Ukrainian command, for which the maintenance of the town of Kupansk has a strategically crucial task, has separated this very many strong forces. In fact, during the full summertime and autumn, the Russians conducted limited attacks of tactical significance. However, in September and October, units of the 1st Armoured defender Army went on to decisive tackles and carry out an operation to cut Ukrainian forces on the right bank of the Oskoł River. The attack of the 2nd Taman Guards of the Mechanized Division, the 4th Cantemir Panzer Division and the 27th Mechanized Brigade as of 6 October came at a distance of 1.5 km from the Oskoł River.
The Russians have tank guns and mortars within scope of fire, a strategically crucial junction in the village of Krugliakiwka. The Ukrainian group is very many and strong. These are the 92nd Infantry Squadron, the 110th Territorial Defence Brigade, the 115th Mechanized Brigade, the 154th Mechanized Brigade, the 77th Aeromobile Brigade, the 115th Territorial Defence Brigade, the 46th Mechanized Brigade, the 1st Presidential defender Brigade “Burewi”, fire-backed 40th Artillery Brigade. The fight on this section of the front is bloody and is simply a material battle.
On an episode of the village of Newskie and Makijivka, Russian forces of the 20th National Army reached the Zeriebiec River. Russian 3rd Division of Mechanized Rifles throws Ukrainians out of the bulge between these already captured villages. The 144th Guarding Division of Mechanized Rifles again approached 2 km from Terna.
Under Kupinsk, after 2 years of bloody fighting, the Russian 25th Mechanized firearm Brigade captured the forests and the village of Sinkowka, nevertheless the attack continued to get stuck.
In general, on the border of the Charkov region and the Lugansk region, both fighting parties tied forces, but in summertime and autumn 2024 it was a secondary section of the front.
North Group
Commanding Russian troops of the tiny Northern Group General Alexander Lapin reached the town of Volchansk and scored half the town, then was driven out of part by counterattacking Ukrainians. His task was to tie Ukrainian forces, simulated by attacking Kharkiv. The task set by Stawka was done, but the city of Volchansk resembled the lunar landscape, and the scenes of fighting from this city were apocalyptic.
Currently, both sides have withdrawn any of their forces to another directions and it is simply a third-rate tactical combat area.
Kursk – Ukrainian “Ardeny 1944”.
The Ukrainian offensive to Kursk for martial arts ratings was 1 large brawl and an action lacking military sense not to say harmful. The Ukrainian strike on Kursk in mid-August aimed at capturing the Russian atomic power plant in Kurczatów proved to be an abstract target, as the Nazi army attacked in December 1944 in Ardenach, the destination of the port of Antwerp.
After the first days of uncontested success, the break-up of Russian troops defending the border, the taking of respective 100 prisoners, the breaking of Russian border fortifications Ukrainians are stuck. They occupied an area the size of the Polish county. They have engaged many and elite units, including experienced brigade staffs, which can coordinate the maneuvering battles of a brigade level organism alternatively than a battalion level. They engaged equipment delivered from NATO countries including Leopad-2 tanks, Chellenger-2, combat infantry cars CV90 from Sweden or Marder-1A3 from Germany, U.S. Stryker production transporters, etc., etc.
In order to show the scale of Ukrainian engagement, it is worth mentioning the Ukrainian units presently fighting in Russia in the Kursk oblast: 21th Mechanized Brigade, 225 Assault Battalion, 95th Armoured Infantry Squadron approaching Wiesolyje. In the depths of the bulge are fought by the 82nd Armoured Infantry Squadron (tank of the Challanger-2 (a gift of the United Kingdom), the BWP Marder-1A3 (a gift of Germany), the Stryker transporters (support from the USA). And besides the 22nd Mechanized Brigade, 104 and 103rd Territorial Defence Brigade, 80th Galician Armed Forces Brigade, 61th Mechanized Brigade, 129th Territorial Defence Brigade.
As you can see, these are not very tiny forces, which are so lacking in Ukrainian command on Donbasa present to halt Russian forces at Pokrowski or a breaking front north of Wuhledar.
Russian forces tried to counterattack in September, but after having recovered 6 villages they were stuck erstwhile the Ukrainian troops attacked Wiesolyje on their wing.
The group of Russian troops on the hen is not small, which allows them to halt the Ukrainian attack. Ukrainian forces in the Kurszczyńsk and neighbouring Sumskie Oblast are heavy bombarded by Russian bomber aviation as well as by MALE class drones of the kind Inochodice or Forspost, endure dense losses in people and equipment.
The second goal of the Ukrainians was to establish maximum ties between Russian forces, it was assumed that the Russians would bring the reserves here for propaganda reasons and would decision to controversy. This is not the case, and it is not the Ukrainians who bind the Russians today, and they are themselves “bound”.
For the sake of order and reliability, I will give a composition of Russian forces presently fighting under Kursk: 155 Guarded Marine Brigade, 106 Tulska Guarded Air-Desantov Division in its entirety (3 regiments), elements 7 and 76 Guarded Armed Forces (one regiment each). Infantry regiments from the 18 and 72nd Mechanized firearm Division. They're here downloaded from another sections of the front paratroopers: 11 and 83 Desert Storm Brigades. There are 810 Guards Marine Brigade, 15 Volunteer/rentive ‘Piatnaszka’ Brigade and respective different reserve infantry regiments, Rosgwardii a collective infantry regiment subordinate to air troops etc. Together about 30,000 soldiers, on the Ukrainian side it is about 35-40 1000 bayonets.
In conclusion, in the first days of October 2024 we observe the uncontested fact in Ukraine that the operational initiative is ruled by the unquestionably Russian side, and it imposes where the fighting takes place. The Ukrainian side is in deep defence and exhausted reserves. Ukrainian forces were repressed on Donbasa on many episodes of built 10 years, due to the fact that since 2014 fortifications and forced to retreat. In the course of the autumn-year offensive, the Russians captured the cities of the fortresses of Krasnogorovka or Wuhledar, and Toreck defends himself with a remnant of force.
Russian troops have support for bomb and army aviation. The armaments manufacture provides adequate bombs with a glider module of between 250 kg and 3000 kg. It is Wajenna Vazsyczne FR Force, which is the “key” of the success of Russian actions on land.
The Russian Army besides receives adequate artillery ammunition and drones of all kinds. The artillery, despite the smaller scope than NATO supplied to Ukrainians, was effectively reorganized. Today, Russian rocket and barrel artillery, supported by many reconnaissance drones, a sufficiently organized communications, but the Russians are struggling with problems, combined with an efficient command system, allowing fast and flexible launch of effectors, makes it a deadly tool of war.
It works 122 mm, through the standard 152 mm Msta-S guns, 2S5 Hiacint long-range systems, and 2S7 203 mm tiny caliber and 47 km range, let you to flexibly interact with your opponent.
Multi-guided rocket launchers of 122mm kind BM-21 Grad, or "Tornado-G", BM-27 "Uragan" of 220mm and BM30 Die or Tornado-S, with all faults of accuracy, let at least to drive Ukrainian guns at a distance of 24 km, 36 km, 70 or 110 km. All of this includes 9K720 Iskander-M rocket systems with a scope of up to 500 km effectively harm American production of Himars or MLRS systems with a scope of 90 km.
The Russians undertook an equal counterbattery battle. Their WRE troops importantly reduced the effectiveness of American rocket systems guided by M142 Himars or MLRS 270 satellites, by effectively interfering with them.
Russian troops conducting offensive actions suffered severe losses, especially in humans, as in the era of FPV's dominance, attacks are carried out fundamentally by tiny units of assault infantry alternatively than by armoured-mechanized pursuits. The Russians besides suffered considerable losses in armored equipment, due to the fact that this is essential in the attack. However, the fact that invading troops seize the area a number of damaged armored vehicles is towed by evacuation teams utilizing BRMs and restored by re-use repairs.
Either way, we see the undisputed systemic demolition of the Ukrainian army, the tactical crises have turned into operational crises she lacks men, equipment and morale of most soldiers, especially from forced withdrawal is low.
The autumn-year-old Russian offensive, even though it did not end in rule fulfilled the tasks set by Stawka. However, the winter run 2024/2025 will be decisive.
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