According to Ukrainian services, the Russian General Staff prepared a variant of mobilization of 600 000 people between 2026 and 1927, of 300 000 each year. Zbigniew Parafianowicz estimates that the Kremlin can usage these forces in Ukraine or increase force on the Baltic States. For Poland this means the request to rapidly strengthen the army and the resilience of the state.
Plan for 600,000 people
The abroad Intelligence Service of Ukraine and Ukrainian military intelligence reported on 27 August that the Russian General Staff had prepared an option for the additional mobilisation of 600 1000 people. The plan is to cover 300,000 recruits in 2026 and another 300,000 in 2027. This is intelligence from the Ukrainian side, not a publically announced decision by the Russian authorities.
By official message from Ukrainian abroad intelligence Russia lost any 240,000 soldiers from January to July 2026, including at least 140,000 unreturned. During the same period, 232 1000 contract soldiers were recruited. These numbers cannot be treated as an independently confirmed balance sheet, but show the assessment on which Kiev builds a informing against a fresh draft wave.
Ukrainian services besides point to a decline in recruitment rates in Russian regions and the expansion of administrative mobilization facilities. Electronic calls are to be linked to the ban on departure, restrictions on access to credit, property trading and the usage of a driving licence. Before Russian companies created lists of workers protected from mobilization. The Putins are thus preparing tools to focus on their own citizens, even if they avoid the word "mobilisation".
Two directions of Russian pressure
Zbigniew Parafianowicz presented 2 basic options for the usage of fresh forces in an interview with Patryciusz Wyżga in the program “Now WP”. The first is to strike again from the north to Ukraine. The second implies maximising hybrid and military action against the Baltic States in an effort to avoid a full-scale war with NATO.
This isn't a foreshadowed attack. This is an analysis of the possible actions of the Kremlin, based on talks between the Parish with politicians and representatives of the service. Russia has been investigating the limits of Western consequence for years through sabotage, cyber attacks, misinformation, migration force and airspace violations. Additional hundreds of thousands of people would increase her ability to sustain the war in Ukraine and make tensions on the east flank.
The parishioner referred to the concept of "new war" described by Colonel Maciej Korowaj. This is about taking action against the Alliance's countries to make it hard to respond together and decisively. The Kremlin would search a grey region between a area and an open assault. It's a method calculated on the political hesitation of the West.
Article 5 does not exempt Poland from its obligations
Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states that armed assault on 1 ally is treated as assault on all. However, aid may take different forms and each State shall take the measures it considers necessary. NATO besides reserves that hybrid operations may scope a level justifying the launch of Article 5, but the North Atlantic Council decides.
This is the space that Moscow might be trying to use. A series of incidents of obscure authorship, cyber attacks, infrastructure damage, and border provocations are intended to weaken the will to respond before the first explicit order for war falls. Poland cannot base safety on the presumption that the opponent will choose the most apparent scenario.
Poland must deter real forces
For Warsaw, the proposal is simple. We request to grow the numbers and readiness of the army, but the number of jobs alone is not enough. We request ammunition supplies, air defense, efficient reserve, infrastructure protection and an administration capable of acting under pressure. Mobilization on the Russian side should accelerate Polish preparations, not origin panic.
Warnings about Russia's next mobilization have already appeared in summer. Today's data of Ukrainian services gives them a circumstantial scale, although inactive needs careful assessment. The worst answer would be to calm Poles with their own membership in NATO. Alliances work erstwhile states bring their own strength and show the will to defend themselves. Poland has a work to be a hard mark since the first minute of the crisis.
Source: Virtual Poland, Ukrainian abroad Intelligence Service, NATO
Source: WP News
