The change of government in Poland does not mean a fundamental change of abroad or economical policy. There is nothing groundbreaking about the return to power of parties that have already participated in many governments in the last 30 years, not erstwhile abandoning Poland imposed by the powers of the Western neoliberal course. Sam Donald Tuskas well as Jarosław Kaczyński, has remained politically active since the 1980s and (which is worth recalling) both politicians frequently collaborated with each other, even within 1 organization in the 1990s, and in the early 21st century creating a common electoral coalition.
Servants of Ukraine and the European Commission
In many respects, it will so be a continuation government, primarily in the global field. It was not by accident that the change of government coincided to remove Polish drivers blocking border crossings with Ukraine from unfair competition from Ukrainian carriers. Citizens' Platform politicians clearly want to show that prokiy actions will be equally determined, but much more effective than Law and Justice. We heard the same speech straight in the fresh Prime Minister's exposition. All Russian hopes that Tusk will return to the 2009 reset policy are completely unfounded. Tusk and his squad operate only within the limits of Poland's dependence on the US and the EU. And since Washington and Brussels reset and relaxation do not want – Warsaw will not decide to improve relations with Moscow.
Corrections will so only apply to phraseology and propaganda. Although the governments of the Law and Justice were absolutely obedient to the European Commission's policy, they seemed to be against it for home use. Tusk will perceive to Brussels without unnecessary hiding, both in terms of political centralisation of the Union, further energy transformation and immigration policy. Let us repeat: these Brussels-German recommendations besides followed, pretending to be not happy. It'll be the same now, only with more enthusiasm.
Substitutive themes and economical collapse
Internal political disputes in Poland will proceed to be maintained in the ideological sphere, especially in the field of education, the protection of conceived life, promotion of LGBT. Traditionally, these topics distract Poles from the economical problems and weaknesses of global Poland, both the fresh government and supporters of the erstwhile squad will gladly usage this proven method.
Finally, in economics, the Tusk government will most likely avoid the greater dismantling of elements of the strategy of redistribution of national income, implemented to a very limited degree by the Law and Justice. The situation of Polish public finances is stable... The main problems stay inflation and rising costs of living. However, these elements stay outside the decision-making scope of this and any another government that does not decide to break Poland's economical dependence on the EU and Germany. The deficiency of state industrial policy, ignoring the collapse of housing, treating the immigration of Poles as a method of statistical simplification of unemployment, and, above all, participation in highly unfavourable energy transformation for Poles – are the real reasons for Poland's being trapped in the average growth and permanent peripherality of our economy compared to the West.
Duration
This means, therefore, that the fresh government, despite the seemingly unchangeable parliamentary situation, includes governments in a possibly unstable social environment, having no prescriptions for solving real problems, headed by the energy and migrant crisis, including the actual transformation of Poland into a two-national state, with the strong participation of the recently arrived Ukrainian minority. These are real, very serious threats for Poland as well as for the functioning of Donald Tusk's government, while the only skill of the Prime Minister himself remains to make a good impression. This time, however, this talent may not be enough, and so the main effort of the fresh coalition's groupings will focus on continuing from election to election and, at most, pulling out more pieces of public property.
All the more reason: it will be as usual.
Konrad Hand
