It is "little likely" that the war against Iran – even on a large scale – will lead to a change in the government in the country – will measure "The Washington Post". The paper indicates that intelligence data undermines the thesis that "the Iranian opposition will take power after a short or long U.S. military campaign".
On March 7, the Washington diary wrote that regardless of the scale of the war, Iranian military and clergy would hold power. This assessment was presented by analysts of the National Intelligence Council. The Editorial Office hopes that this "s sobering assessment" will scope Donald Trump's administration officials and halt them from extending the military campaign.
"The findings, confirmed by the Washington Post by 3 people acquainted with the content of the report, undermine president Donald Trump's stated plan to "clean up" the Iranian leadership structure and establish its place as its elected leader", says the March 7 article "Intel study warns large-scale war "unlikely" to "outt Iran's regime" ("An intelligence study warns that a "little likely" is that a large-scale war should lead to the overthrow of the government in Iran").
The study was to be drawn up about a week before the start of the war by the United States and Israel. It includes scenarios for the succession of power in Tehran for both a limited military run aimed at Iranian leaders and in the event of a wider attack on authorities and state institutions. In both scenarios, the interview assessed that the Iranian establishment – both clergy and military – would respond to the eventual assassination of the ultimate Leader, Ayatollah Ali Chamenei, in accordance with applicable procedures to keep the continuity of power.
The National Intelligence Council, which brings together experienced analysts from 18 U.S. intelligence agencies, considered it “little likely” that the Iranian opposition would be able to take control of the state.
"The Washington Post" stresses that it is not known whether the president has been informed of the intelligence arrangements before deciding to approve the "military operation". The conflict has now widened far east – covering the activities of submarines in the Indian Ocean – and west, where clashes happen close Turkey, a NATO member.
– president Trump and his administration clearly identified the objectives of Operation Epic Fury: to destruct Iran's ballistic missiles and production capabilities, destruct their fleet, prevent the arming of agents, and prevent Iran from gaining atomic weapons said White home spokeswoman Anna Kelly.
The “questions” of the U.S. intelligence agencies have besides previously been reported by the “New York Times”, the agency Reuters, and the “Wall Street Journal”.
Suzanne Maloney, a investigator for Iran and Vice president of Brookings Institution, estimated that the National Intelligence Council's forecast stems from “deep cognition of the muslim republic” and is based on “facts”.
"Washington Post" adds that "it seems that the intelligence study did not analyse another possible scenarios, including sending US land troops to Iran or arming cultural Kurds to incite rebellion". The diary besides wonders whether the ongoing large-scale run is in line with erstwhile plans.
The success of power in Iran is being carried out despite an extended run of air and naval bombings conducted by the US and Israel. There are no signs of mass folk uprisings or serious cracks in government structures or safety forces. Experts believe Trump will not be able to impose any political conditions on Tehran.
– The bending of the knees before Trump would be contrary to everything they represent – said Holly Dagres, elder academic at the Washington Institute of close east Politics. Many another experts are critical of Trump's policy towards Iran, accusing him of ignoring intelligence assessments and impulsive decision-making.
Source: washingingtonpost.com
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