The wheat contracts in Chicago went up by 40% by September 23 from the June minimum, reaching the highest level for 3 and a half years. Attacks on ships and ports have almost stopped exports from Russia and Ukraine, and the effect can besides scope Polish portfolios through food prices and force on the cereals market.
Ships stand, grain does not scope the recipients
The Black Sea War has ceased to be only a problem for the countries on its banks. Since July, impacts on ships, ports and terminals have limited cargo traffic from 2 powerful exporters. According to Reuter, the Russian wheat export in September could be around 1 million tonnes compared to 5 million tonnes a year earlier. Ukraine is besides expected to export around 1 million tonnes this month, or half of last year's result.
The scale is important. S&P Global data indicate that Russia and Ukraine accounted for a full of 27.3% of planet wheat exports in period 2025/2026. erstwhile specified a large share of supply loses its smooth way to the market, buyers must fight for cereals from another directions and pay more for transport and insurance.
Asia and Africa pay first bills
Indonesia brought any 60,000 tons of wheat from the Black Sea region in September. A year earlier, it was half a million tons. The mills there search supplies in Australia and Argentina, but Australian grain costs them by 20 to 25 percent more than the previously contracted black sea cargo.
There's even more tension in Egypt. In the first half of September, the country adopted 143 870 tonnes of wheat compared to 876 139 tonnes a year earlier. Cairo turns to France and another European suppliers. This shows a simple mechanism: war cuts off the shortest and cheapest road, and the cost of shipping safety goes to the price of flour and bread.
The situation did not fall from the sky. O Impacts on Odessa ports and failure of Ukrainian export main road We wrote in early August. Later attacks besides included Russian infrastructure and ships utilizing their ports. Today, the marketplace pays for escalation on both sides, although the work for starting this war lies with Russia.
More costly detours will not replace ports
Russia is trying to direct part of the grain towards the Baltic. Ukraine increases rail transport, roads and through Danube ports, but these solutions have lower capacity and are more expensive. The low level of the Danube further reduces the burden capacity of the barges. According to the Ukrainian authorities, alternate routes can handle only half of the volume lost in the Black Sea ports even after full operation.
Therefore proposal for a truce for civilian ships in the Black Sea it had meaning beyond the front itself. Without permanent safety guarantees, shipowners will not return full and importers will keep spare, costly supply routes. The marketplace will stay nervous.
What price increase means for Poland
Poland is simply a large grain producer, but does not operate outside the planet market. Higher wheat quotations can improve the income of part of farms, especially those with grain for sale. At the same time, the costs of mills, breeding and processing are increasing. Moving them to store shelves is not automatic or immediate, but the longer crisis increases force on food prices.
There's a transit case. If the maritime routes stay inefficient, the force will increase on rail and road exports of Ukrainian grain by the EU countries. Poland has already felt force to block the Black Sea to its own market. The assistance of Ukraine must not mean deregulation of trade in Poland or shifting the costs of war on Polish farmers. Sealed transit control, efficient ports and defence of the interests of national producers are needed.
The Black Sea remains an artery of planet food trade. Those who ignore port and shipping security, they are liable for supplying grain to hundreds of millions of people. For Poland, the proposal is practical: you gotta strengthen your own production, warehouses and logistics, due to the fact that food sovereignty is not a slogan for peaceful times. Its value is known erstwhile war stops ships.
Source: Reuters, 23 September 2026., S&P Global, FAO
Source: Bankier.pl
