The primaries in the PO will win Rafał Trzaskowski, but their real winner will of course be Donald Tusk. He invented the full show. And he didn't do it for any noble reason.
The undisputed leader of the Civic Coalition, despite any predictions, did not surprise anything. There was speculation that he would stand up for the presidential seat. However, Tusk remained faithful to his doctrine, which he coined before the 2010 elections: real power in Poland is in the government, not in the palace at Krakowskie Przedmieście.
It is besides undoubtedly due to Tusk, that he yet realized the function of the theoretical head of the state in the Polish political system. The first 3 presidents – Lech Wałęsa, Aleksander Kwaśniewski and Lech Kaczyński – did many, though different measures to make a presidential or semi-presidential strategy by means of facts. After the Constitution was passed in 1997, it became an anti-state action. Overextended ambitions of organization leaders, SLD and PiS respectively, led to chaos caused by a two-headed execution. The Prime Minister had real tools to hold the government's controls, and theoretically the president had a mandate.
It was only Tusk who suggested getting out of this stalemate: he recalled that the president, although elected in a popular vote, has no real cause. It can only usage an atomic option, or veto. However, it is hard to put the parliamentary majority of the stick in the spokes to be called "power". The present Prime Minister, therefore, having given a celebrated expression about the "watchman of the chandelier", yet appointed him – a primary hucpa in the PO – Bronisław Komorowski, or individual who was perfectly trained to watch the chandelier.
Jarosław Kaczyński acknowledged the “Tuska Doctrine” and that he was more afraid about giving stand-alone positions to his organization subordinates – after all, it was impossible to find a leftist for the president – he chose Andrzej Duda, a third-rate politician, whom he thought he had no chance of fighting Komorowski. And even if he had won, he would have been a figure so confused in the halls of the presidential Palace that he would have been forced to trust on the PiS-inside.
It was different with this helplessness of Duda, but the fact is that Kaczyński did not overshoot besides much: his nomine turned out to be an authoritative incapable to push his elbows among the tops of power and show the force of the presidential mandate. He even found it hard to fulfil his duties of dignity – specified as being on the defender of the Constitution or working with the government in conducting global politics.
The forthcoming presidential elections do not seem to announce a major change: the "Tusk doctrine" will proceed to apply, both in the election of the PiS and the PO candidate. This can be seen perfectly by the platformer primaries, or the old method of Tusk to bring fresh order.
Out of Tusk's head
Let's start with the fact that these are not primaries, but at the very least, a primary product. Because, of course, PO activists were given the chance to make a presidential candidate, but the choice of suitors was already done by Tusk. Radosław Sikorski and Rafał Trzaskowski jumped out of the Prime Minister's skull like Athena out of Zeus' head. The erstwhile is intended to weaken the position of the rival, who until late seemed certain of his appointment.
Tusk always made certain that no possible competitor could grow besides high. And although the president of Warsaw is an highly inept player – he is already disqualified from serious politics by the fact that he did not in any way disprove the 2020 election success – the Prime Minister did not neglect to take distant even what was left of him: the image of a surety in the 2020 presidential election.
The alleged primaries are so in Tusk's hands a tool to oppress his subordinates and observe trials in the party. Leader PO shook the board and watches the pawns stack on it. According to this logic, the consequence is comparatively simple to predict: ambitious Sikorski will lose by a hair to Trzaskowski, although the second already at the start got from his countercandidate respective times. The head of the MFA – known for his resonancy – did not neglect to call the competitor a efficient guide in Warsaw, but a mediocre candidate for hard times.
However, you will ask why Tusk has already weakened at the start of his candidate, and why does he one more time present himself to a alternatively settled Sikorski duel? Firstly, as mentioned here, it does not attach much importance to the presidency. If Trzaskowski loses it, the Prime Minister won't get hurt. The main reason for the existence of the PO is the existence of the PiS and the Prime Minister realises this. If his organization stops fighting the Kaczyński autocrat, she will have a serious problem justifying why it is worth voting for.
Tusk is full aware of this. He is even looking for a “great narrative” that can give a different meaning to his organization than preventing Kaczyński from returning to power. But that is not what his constituents expect. No Olympic Games, fresh CPKs, and even atomic power plants someway ignite the head of a PO supporter. It is not about the large slogan, but about getting free of obscurantism, this unfortunate “sniffed noble” who oppresses and paralyzes free and light society.
So Tusk may have his president, but he doesn't have to.
The second point is Sikorski. Well, it's a very circumstantial figure in Polish politics and – what to hide – the only 1 so expressive in the current government. A man is morbidly ambitious, independent, with his own opinions, and eager to walk in his own paths. The alleged primaries, in which Sikorski competes for the second time, are expected to plunge him yet and prove that without the leader PO he himself would mean little.
Managing the primary, the leader of KO has set up a laboratory: he sees how organization sympathies are forming, who can build political facilities and where opponents should be sought inside the group. Anne Applebaum's husband, if fighting for a 100 percent nomination, will gotta pull all the cards on the table, that is, show his boss who truly supports him, whether there is any "Sikorski faction" and how strong he is. The same is actual of Trzaskowski, although he is simply a politician whose leader of the PO is easier to scan, after all, he was already standing in presidential shranks and his organization subsidiaries seem more readable.
Left or hypocritical conservatism?
Sikorski – Trzaskowski dilemma is besides an crucial thought choice of PO. If by any miracle – which I do not believe – the erstwhile would win, it would mean that Tusk inactive believes that pretending to be a Conservative makes sense. Sikorski is perfect for asymptomatic right-wing. On the 1 hand, he boasts of a manor home in Chobielina, likes in Polish history, alternatively than ideological confrontations. On the another hand, he admits in the British Conservative kind that abortion and partnerships are a substance of decency.
Trzaskowski, although in essence much is not different from Sikorski, is simply a much more revolutionary politician. The thought of removing crosses from the walls in the Warsaw offices was a clear stand on the side of the atheistic state, rejecting clearly the function of heir Christianitas. The fact that Trzaskowski supports alleged single-sex marriages or the freedom to kill unborn people does not request to be mentioned at all, due to the fact that these are his political mill settings.
I realize that Trzaskowski and Sikorski on the left-right axis disagree alternatively from the image. Differentities lie more in method than in objectives. But it inactive matters. If the PO puts the president of the capital – and everything points to it – it will be a clear direction to which direction under Tusk will yet follow the largest group of ruling coalitions. Some, seeing the counter-edances of the Prime Minister around the subject of migration, may inactive delude themselves that it someway inhibits the full madness of the left-wing mind. The option on Trzaskowski will make the masks fall down and Tusk will be harder to scope for the centre electorate.
Nevertheless, I do not think that this is an crucial argument for him. It seems that he has long since calculated the revolutionary direction of changes in education, the defence of life or the institution of marriage. The contractual approach to social values is indeed the essence of liberalism, and this 1 remains the perfect bone of Tusk.
In addition, Trzaskowski gives him another: it is the final whip for the 3rd Road. 1 of the PSL leaders, Marek Sawicki, announced that he would not support the current president of Warsaw in the second round. Thus, Tusk can break Kosiniak-Kamisha and Holownia's alliance, decapitating a reasonably strong group in the government arrangement.
It's not just about winning due to the fact that the game is going on. "The Tusk Doctrine" relieves the Prime Minister of any peculiar concern for the Presidential Palace. If this stool falls into the hands of the Law and Justice, he will not teardrop his own garments. After all, the most fruitful thing for a leader of a government coalition is chasing a bunny. And the primary is the first phase of this pursuit.
Tomasz Figura