The atmosphere in the Oval Office was dense from tension erstwhile Donald Trump, J.D. Vance and Volodymyr Zelenski met to discuss the future of US support for Ukraine. The conversation went rather differently than the Ukrainian president expected. The next hours showed the scale of this fiasco.
On the another hand, Zelenski unexpectedly gained support among his national opponents and critics. The leader of "European Solidarity" and erstwhile president Petro Poroshenko, who for years was 1 of Zelenski's main opponents, amazed with his statement, declaring that he did not intend to criticize him in connection with his gathering with Trump.
“Half of Ukraine did not sleep after last night’s recording from Washington,” said Poroshenko, quoted by Censor.NET, “We all kept our fingers crossed behind Ukraine. We see that relations between Ukraine and the US are not only Zelenski's relation with Trump, but the relation of 2 large nations who know that democracy and freedom are not empty words... Many expected me to criticize Zelenski now. I won't. That's not what Ukraine needs. The country needs unity. Unity in a situation where, unfortunately, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were left without American weapons.”
Even more crucial is the motion of General Walerij Załużny, erstwhile Chief Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who has late served as Ambassador of Ukraine to the UK. A well-deserved man who seldom speaks publically on political matters met Zelenski on 1 March in the British capital and made it clear that Ukraine needs unity. For a long time he was seen as a possible political rival of Zelenski, and his relation with the president was strained.
"There will be quite a few talk in London these days about Ukraine and its further support," he said. “It will be difficult, but together we will get through this... This war tests us, investigating our endurance and courage. It besides shows who our actual friend is.”
The stormy conversation in the Oval Office was a informing signal for Ukraine, and for the planet – it proves that Trump plans to change his strategy towards Russia and China. The Guardian reports that after the meeting, Zelenski did not hide disappointment, but besides tried to emphasize the importance of his relation with the US. “Trump's support is crucial," said the Ukrainian President, suggesting that without him Ukraine could be isolated.
Meanwhile, Russia was pleased to see a performance taking place in the White House. Yahoo News reports that Russian state media presented this argument as evidence of weakening American engagement in Ukraine and possibly bringing Washington closer to Moscow.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio several days earlier, he explicitly acknowledged that the US is trying to “draw” Russia distant from China, as Nixon separated China from the USSR.
“If Russia becomes a permanent junior partner of China, it means that we have 2 atomic powers that forever become opponents of the United States”, Rubio said in an interview with Breitbart News.
He noted that the strategy of isolation of Russia through sanctions led to the Kremlin becoming entirely dependent on Beijing.
“Russia sells oil and gas to China at reduced prices, buys Chinese technology and is becoming increasingly active in the Chinese economical network. If this continues, Moscow will have no choice but to submit to Beijing," he warned Rubio.
The intent of the US is so to make Russia an alternate so that Moscow does not gotta trust entirely on China. 1 of the most crucial steps is to reduce support for Ukraine, which can open the way to negotiations with Russia, far beyond the issue of peace.
By NBC News, Marco Rubio late met with Russian abroad minister Sergei Lavrow, Saudi Arabia. The talks addressed the question of “rehabilitation” of the USA-Russia relation and creating conditions for Trump's possible encounter with Putin.
“It is not about us becoming friends of Russia. It's about having control of the situation. The fact that Moscow is now making all decision under the Chinese dictatorship is not beneficial for us," Rubio said.
Trump, saying that Ukraine cannot number on unlimited aid from the USA or even gotta number on cutting it, wants to encourage Russia to rethink its long-term strategy. 1 of the U.S. ideas is gradual abolition of selected sanctions against RussiaIf she agrees to limit her cooperation with China.
“Russia does not want to be entirely dependent on China, but does not see an alternative. We can offer them this alternative," Rubio said in an interview with Breitbart News.
Beijing did not leave this US strategy unanswered. The Chinese Ministry of abroad Affairs responded rapidly to Rubio's words, stating that “No 3rd organization is able to undermine strong cooperation between China and Russia”.
By South China Morning Post, Xi Jinping personally contacted Vladimir Putin after Rubio met with Lavrow to guarantee that China and Russia proceed to cooperate regardless of US action.
“China and Russia have long-term plans and no external attempts will change our path”, said Chinese MFA spokesperson Lin Jian.
Moreover, according to The Wall Street Journal, Beijing even attempted to offer itself as a mediator between Trump and Putin, suggesting the anticipation of organising their gathering in China. The Trump administration rejected this proposal, suggesting that talks should take place in Saudi Arabia.
Although the U.S. strategy is ambitious, there are serious obstacles to its implementation. Firstly, Russia does not trust the US and may recognise that it is better to keep cooperation with China than to hazard further disappointment from the West. Secondly, China is actively working to keep Russia in its orbit, offering it even better conditions for economical and military cooperation. Thirdly, Europe may argue any concessions to Russia and the first hours after the White home event seem to confirm this.
If Trump actually meets Putin, there could be a breakthrough in US-Russia relations. But will the Kremlin decide to weaken ties with China? Or possibly Beijing can keep Moscow in his sphere of influence? Time will tell if the US can repeat Nixon's success and take Russia distant from China - or will Beijing win this geopolitical game?
Rafał Skórniewski
