In December 2024 retail sales in fixed prices (without inflation included) increased by 1.9% compared to December 2023 – reported the Central Statistical Office (GUS). Although this consequence represents an improvement compared to last year's decline (-2.3%), it is much lower than the expectations of analysts who forecast an increase of 3.9% year-on-year.
Main retail data in December 2024.
According to CSO data:
- On a monthly basis, retail sales in fixed prices increased by 9.9% compared to November 2024.
- Over the full 2024 year retail sales increased by 2.7% compared to 2023 (compared to a decrease by 2.7% the year before).
- After eliminating the impact of seasonal factors, retail sales at fixed prices were 1.3% lower than November 2024.
Sales in current prices increased in December by 2.7% year-on-year and by 9.8% month-to-month.
Unfulfilled marketplace expectations
Financial marketplace analysts predicted retail sales would increase by 3.9% year-on-year in December 2024. The achieved consequence (1.9% y/y) was so clearly lower, which economists consider to be a sign of the weaker state of the consumer sector.
Economists' comments
"December retail has failed to meet the expectations of the market. We ended the year with a comparatively weak growth on the consumption side (1.9% y/y vs. expected 3.9% y/y). Looking at the sales index it can be concluded that there is not much going on here," indicated economists from mBank.
In December, retail sales failed to break the expectations of the market. We ended the year with a comparatively weak growth on the consumption side (1.9% y/y vs. expected 3.9% y/y). Looking at the sales index, you can conclude that there is not much going on here... pic.twitter.com/nTPt8lGVYq
— mBank investigation (@mbank_research) January 23, 2025
Analysts of Bank Pekao besides noted consumer caution:
"Consumers further in savings mode. In December retail sales increased by 1.9%, clearly below forecasts (approximately 4% y/y). We can close the proposal from which we started this year – most of the real income growth went into savings. In order not to be rather negative, in parallel, the CSO published data on consumer moods in January and here you can see an improvement, though to levels before the year (not to mention 2017-2019) long way.”
Consumers proceed in savings mode. In December retail sales increased by 1.9%, clearly below forecasts (approximately 4% y/y). We can close the proposal from which we started this year – most of the real income growth went into savings. pic.twitter.com/sFv9ycAHbq
— Pekao analyses (@Pekao_Analysis) January 23, 2025
Consumption under savings pressure
The results achieved show that Polish consumers are inactive careful about spending, focusing on building savings. Although the December growth in monthly terms (9.9%) may seem positive, its main motor was seasonal Christmas shopping.
At the same time, improving consumer sentiments in January 2025 may propose a possible trend change in the coming months.
Summary and outlook
Retail sales in Poland in 2024 were the consequence of a average increase in consumption and a dominant savings trend. Despite the affirmative end of the year, the results stay lower than marketplace expectations. In the future, economical improvement and fiscal policy will play a key role, which can influence the level of disposable income of Polish families.
Read more:
New sales data depict the worse financial situation of Poles
