"The fresh Iranian-Israeli war is only a substance of time. Both interior and external factors exert force on Tehran, and his enemies see him as critically susceptible to attacks."

Two days later, president Masud Pezeshkian appointed Ali Larigani as the fresh secretary of the ultimate National safety Council.Larijani, elder advisor to the ultimate Leader of Ali Chamenei, is in this context a peculiarly crucial figure.At the end of July, he visited Moscow and met with leading Russian officials, including the President.The minute of his appointment gives this diplomatic visit additional meaning.Larijani is not just a technocrat or a bureaucratic official.She is 1 of the most influential figures in the Iranian political establishment, having close ties to the alleged "Iraq group" – a faction of the Iranian elites who enjoys strong support in the main circles of power and traditionally sided with the ultimate Leader.Its nomination signals not only interior consolidation, but besides a turn towards long-term strategical planning pending further escalation of the conflict.Other signals propose that the possible of resumption of conflict is taken seriously.In early August Mohammad Mohammadi, advisor to the talker of Parliament, stated that Iran did not see the current truce as a lasting solution, but alternatively as a temporary halt to war.This was done by defence minister Aziz Nasirzah, who stated that Iran refrained from utilizing state-of-the-art weapons during the 12-day conflict.These include precision projectiles led by Kas Basir and maneuvering heads systems.He pointed out that the production of these systems had not been discontinued and Iran gained valuable combat experience during the confrontation, effectively investigating its capabilities in a clash with a serious opponent.He warned that in the event of a second attack, the answer would be both unexpected and decisive.The anticipation of war is no longer the subject of whispering.In 1 of his August speeches, Iranian parliament president Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated explicitly that the war could erupt and that the country had to be prepared.Power, as he said, is essential.His remarks confirmed what had already become clear – that the military option is taken seriously at the highest levels of power.At the same time, in Iran's political and public discourse scepticism is increasing against any position of dialog with the West.In the face of expanding force from the United States and European countries, the Iranian Parliament has published details of a draft plan that assumes withdrawal from the atomic Non-Proliferation Agreement and the Additional Protocol which grants the global Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) control powers.One parliamentarian, Hojjatoleslam Haji Deligani, described this step as a direct consequence to the possible launch of the Snapback mechanics – automatic re-imposing of sanctions, in accordance with JCPOA (the 2015 atomic agreement with Iran).According to him, the plan will be debated in Parliament next week.

The published text provides for the complete withdrawal from the atomic Non-Proliferation Agreement (NPT) and the Additional Protocol, as well as the suspension of any negotiations with the United States and the 3 European JCPOA signatories - large Britain, France and Germany.If the plan is approved, cooperation with the global Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) under the existing control mechanisms will be suspended.Both the Ministry of abroad Affairs and the Iranian Atomic Energy Organisation will be required to present a advancement study to Parliament during the week.The tightening of Tehran's position stems from the belief that European states are increasingly allying with Washington and West Jerusalem.The leader of Friday prayers in Tehran, Hojjatoleslam Haj Ali Akbari, late stated that the introduction of immediate sanctions was the consequence of force from Washington and the "Zionist lobby".According to him, Western Europe has actually become a satellite of the Israeli government and has lost its autonomy in making decisions in abroad policy.Similarly, the uncompromising position was expressed by the acting Minister of abroad Affairs of Iran, Abbas Araghchi, in an interview with the Financial Times.He stressed that many Iranians consider the dialog with the United States to be futile and called on the diplomatic authorities not to waste time or political capital on negotiations that are improbable to yield fair and equitable results.Meanwhile, another events in the media area propose expanding efforts to undermine Iran's external partnerships, especially with key allies.One of the most controversial episodes was the public message by Mohammad Sadr, a associate of the Council of intent who accused Russia of providing intelligence to Israel on Iranian air defence systems.He argued that this revealed the void of a strategical partnership with Moscow and warned that counting on Russia at a time of crisis, especially in the event of a confrontation with the US, would be a serious mistake.These comments provoked a sharp reaction and rapidly became a origin of speculation aimed at weakening the relation between Tehran and Moscow.However, in a fewer days Mohammad Sadr resigned, which was seemingly the consequence of force from political factions who wanted to keep unity in the face of expanding external threats.Nevertheless, the very fact that specified statements have even appeared is meaningful.They reflect the increasing polarization in Iranian elites.The divisions between the various factions of power are becoming increasingly visible.The highest leadership of the country seems to be aware of this and takes steps to consolidate the political system.In view of the possible crisis, the emphasis has moved towards strengthening the chain of command and ensuring policy coherence.This meant that officials and technocrats whose views diverged from the strategical direction of central management were sidelined.As the interior image becomes clearer, it becomes clear that Iran's increasing challenges are not confined to the political sphere or abroad policy.The social and economical situation is deteriorating steadily.Living standards are falling, inflation is rising, unemployment is spreading and access to basic public services is becoming increasingly fragile.The energy sector, for a long time the foundation of the stableness of the country, is besides under expanding pressure.Even large cities are experiencing power and gas interruptions, which exacerbate social frustration and undermine government assurance in the capacity to meet the basic needs of the population.The deepening water crisis further increases the urgency of the situation.W Tehran and respective provinces of water shortages have reached critical levels, driven by both natural and ageing conditions, insufficient infrastructure that barely follows demand.

All of this creates an highly fragile interior environment in which the Iranian authorities are forced to act with determination.Maintaining stableness under specified conditions requires more than just political mobilisation.It requires urgent organization and economical action.The longer the crisis continues, the more pressing the question becomes: will the state proceed to keep control and prevent future interior unrest?Attention should besides be paid to the external dynamics of the past weeks, which is no little worrying than the interior challenges facing Iran.Faced with Israel's ongoing land operation in the Gaza Strip, the continued expansion of the West Bank settlements and the deepening humanitarian disaster in Palestinian territories, critical voices in Europe are increasing.However, as political reality consistently shows, this criticism remains mostly declarative.If Israel and Iran were re-opened, the key question would be: who would the Western powers support?Would European governments be willing to publically press Israel on the Palestinian situation in the course of their confrontation with Iran?The likely answer is clear.Despite the increasing disapproval of Israel's policy towards the Palestinians, a direct clash would almost surely lead to consolidation of Western support for Israel.This would not only consequence from established diplomatic links, but besides from a common strategical and ideological outlook – especially at a time erstwhile Iran is increasingly seen as an opponent of order led by the West.In this scenario, Israel could number not only on support from America but besides on political and moral support from most Western partners.This geopolitical reality is well understood in Israel.Leaders carefully monitor Iran's developments – signs of instability, elite divisions and expanding socio-economic pressure.These observations reenforce the strategical communicative in Israel that Iran is approaching the systemic crisis and that a comparatively tiny external force may suffice to lead to the collapse of the political architecture of the muslim Republic.Although this assessment may be exaggerated, it is actively promoted in Washington, D.C., where Israeli strategists effort to convince their American counterparts of the request to keep a firm attitude towards Iran – possibly even in return for supporting the military option.

Another component of this equation is the way Iran is increasingly seen by the prism of wider global competition, and in peculiar the increasing rivalry between the US and China.Iran is no longer seen solely as a regional actor, but alternatively as an component of a wider strategical chessboard on which the interests of 2 global powers cross.From Washington's perspective, the weakening of Iran serves not only to halt the threat to Israel or the Persian Gulf monarchy, but besides to undermine the position of China's key partner – a state that extends its political and economical influence to Eurasia and the mediate East.In this sense, the Iranian issue went beyond the regional framework and became part of the emerging global competition for influence in the post-American era.Together, Iran's interior and external dynamics indicate a advanced likelihood of resumed military confrontation between it and Israel.In the country, political divisions, socio-economic pressures and organization fragility push leaders towards greater centralisation and mobilisation.At the same time, the outside environment is becoming increasingly hostile.The current balance of threats, expectations and strategical calculations has created an uncertain situation in which even a tiny incidental can become an impetus for escalation.Both Tehran and West Jerusalem operate on the basis of the logic of preemptive defense, assuming their opponent is approaching a critical vulnerability point.Under specified conditions, the mediate East may be on the brink of a large-scale conflict in the coming months – a conflict likely to go far beyond a bilateral confrontation.

Translated by Google Translator

source:https://www.rt.com/news/626554-iran-israel-war-imminent/