The NBP provided fresh inflation data. This is simply a bad signal for millions of borrowers

The National Bank of Poland has published the latest data which may disturb millions of Poles paying off loans. In June 2025, base inflation, a key indicator for the Monetary Policy Council, increased again, reaching 3.4 percent year-on-year levels. Although at first glance the change is small, economists beat the alarm. The persistent price force in the economy is simply a clear signal that Dreams of fast interest rate cuts can be postponed to the far future. For people with mortgages and consumer loans, this means 1 thing – advanced instalments will stay with us for longer.

This data puts the Monetary Policy Council in a hard position. On the 1 hand, the economy needs an impetus for growth, on the another hand, persistent base inflation does not let monetary policy to be loosened. Analysts emphasize that June reading is proof that the fight against inflation in Poland has entered a much more hard phase. What precisely do these numbers mean for your wallet and what are the forecasts for the following months?

Baseline inflation is increasing. What precisely did the NBP data show?

The National Bank of Poland analyses not only the main inflation index of CPI, but besides respective measures of core inflation. These are the ones that make it possible to measure how profoundly price force has taken root in the economy. The most crucial of these, namely inflation erstwhile food and energy prices are excluded, increased in June 2025 to 3.4%. on an yearly basis from 3.3% in May. This indicator is the most closely observed by the MPC.

For a full image of the situation of the NBP, it besides gives another measures which developed in June as follows:

• Inflation after exclusion of administered prices (to be controlled by the State) was 2.5 percent.Staying at the same level as in May.
• Inflation after exclusion of the most variable prices somewhat decreased to 4.5 percent from 4.6 percent a period earlier.
• The alleged 15-percent cut average, which eliminates utmost price changes, was 3.7 percent. (compared to 3.8 percent in May).

It is worth noting that all these indicators stay clearly above the inflation mark of the NBP, which is 2.5%. For comparison, the main index of consumer goods and services (CPI) was 4.1% year-on-year in June. The increase in key core inflation, despite the decline of any another indicators, is simply a signal that internal force on price increases in Poland does not let go.

Why is base inflation so crucial to your wallet?

For the average consumer, the word "baseline inflation" may sound abstract, but it has a direct impact on our finances. By deciding on interest rates, the central bank seeks to filter out information noise, specified as the sharp changes in fuel prices in global markets or fluctuations in food prices due to weather. Monetary policy has a limited impact on these factors.

Base inflation, excluding those most variable categories, shows real, fundamental price force in the economy. It mainly reflects the prices of services and industrial goods to which the central bank can have a real impact through the cost of money. If base inflation is advanced and rising, this means that companies are inactive raising prices and wage force is strong. This in turn is simply a powerful argument for the Monetary Policy Council to maintain advanced interest rates Or even consider their raise.

In practice, this means that the interest rate on loans, including the popular WIBOR or WIRON rate, has no area for decline. Each holder of a variable-rate mortgage debt feels this straight in the form of a advanced monthly instalment. Therefore, persistently advanced base inflation is a simple signal that the relief will should be provided.

No more dreams of lower installments? What happens to interest rates?

The June reading of base inflation is simply a serious informing signal and a bucket of cold water for those who hoped for fast interest rate cuts. Analysts agree: this data importantly limits the scope of manoeuvre of the Monetary Policy Council. Although no 1 is presently expecting increases, the script of reductions in the coming months has become highly unlikely.

Economists point out that the "easy" part of the fight against inflation, which consists of the fall in natural materials prices, is already behind us. Now Poland is entering the phase of the fight against persistent inflation in serviceswhich is much harder to control. expanding labour costs and inactive strong consumer request make companies have no reason to lower prices. In this situation, the RPP must keep a restrictive attitude to prevent the price-pay spiral from unfolding again.

For borrowers this means preparing for a longer period of advanced backing costs. The possible of returning to low interest rates, known before the pandemic, is moving away. No more dreams of fast ft cuts is the most crucial conclusion of the latest NBP data. In home budgets, it should be assumed that advanced credit instalments will stay with us until at least the end of 2025 and possibly even longer.