The National Bank of Poland published data on 16 July 2025 that could change the perception of the Polish economy. For the 3rd time in a row key core inflation indicators were included in the scope of permissible deviations from the central bank's strategical inflation target. It's not just a dry statistic, it's a powerful signal: Poland returns to price balance after a long period of uncertainty. Does this mean relief for millions of Poles and no more galloping prices? The data from June confirm that inflationary force has declined importantly and predictability on the marketplace is increasing. Economists look forward with optimism, though they inform against premature proclamation of full victory.
The most crucial news from fresh NBP data is stabilising core inflation, especially after excluding food and energy prices. This indicator, key for monetary decisions, was in June 3.4 percent. This is simply a tiny increase of just 0.1 percent points compared to May (3.3 percent), but most importantly, it falls precisely within the scope of permissible deviations from the authoritative NBP target, which is 2.5 percent tolerance plus minus 1 percent point. This means that the central bank has achieved its objective, keeping inflation between 1.5% and 3.5%.
This consequence is consistent with marketplace expectations and confirms the effectiveness of the NBP's monetary policy. This is the 3rd period in a row erstwhile base inflation is in an acceptable range, indicating durability of disinflation processes. For the average Kowalski, this means greater price stableness of the basic products and services on which the central bank has the top influence. Fuel or food prices depend more on global and weather factors, but this is what the base inflation shows the real purchasing power of money in the long term.
What do the indicators say? Detailed data analysis
The NBP monitors base inflation with 4 different indicators, allowing a comprehensive assessment of the situation. In June, the base inflation after the exclusion of administered prices, i.e. those regulated by the State, remained at the level of 2.5 percent on an yearly basis, unchanged as regards May. This is peculiarly crucial due to the fact that it eliminates the impact of political decisions, allowing a better knowing of fundamental economical trends.
Another indicator, inflation after excluding the most volatile prices, recorded a tiny decrease from 4.6 percent in May to 4.5 percent in June. This is simply a sign of a weakening of price force in highly volatile economical segments, which further alleviates general inflationary tensions. Moreover, the average cut, eliminating the impact of 15 percent of the basket of prices with the smallest and largest dynamics, was in June 3.7 percent against 3.8 percent in May. This is simply a further decline, indicating that sustainable price trends are unchangeable and one-off price shocks are no longer prevailing in the economy.
This data is simply a solid foundation for future decisions of the NBP. They show that the operations of the central bank are effective and the economy is slow recovering. knowing these indicators is crucial to foretell how prices will evolve in the coming months.
End of advanced inflation? Forecasts for July and beyond
Although the base inflation is already in order, it is worth looking at a wider index of consumer inflation (CPI). His latest reading, published on July 15, showed an increase by 4.1 percent compared to the corresponding period of the erstwhile year. This is inactive an increased level comparative to the inflation target, but it is simply a continuation of the clear disinflation trend observed in Poland for respective months.
Most importantly, economists agree: June was most likely the last month, in which the yearly consumer inflation in Poland will start with the number four. marketplace forecasts indicate that already in July the index of consumer prices of goods and services falls below the 3% threshold. This would be a crucial breakthrough and close to the advanced limit of the tolerance band around the inflation target. This decline will be the consequence of a combination of factors: the statistical effects of the advanced benchmark of the erstwhile year, the stabilisation of energy prices on global markets and the effects of the restrictive monetary policy of the NBP. In addition, reducing cost force in many sectors and stabilising supply chains besides contribute to mitigating inflation.
How will this affect your wallet and your economy?
Stability of core inflation has direct and affirmative implications for all Pole. Above all, this means greater predictability of prices. Consumers can more confidently plan their expenditures and the purchasing power of their income will be little susceptible to violent fluctuations. It's a relief for home budgets that have been under force for a long time from rising cost of living. little dynamic price increases are besides smaller concerns about the value of savings.
For companies, predictable price processes make it easier to take investment and strategical decisions. Companies can better plan the production, employment and prices of their products, which fosters business improvement and stability. The banking sector besides benefits due to the fact that unchangeable inflation is little likely to rapidly change interest rates, making it easier to manage credit hazard and offer more competitive financial products.
Financial markets respond positively to this data, expanding the predictability of NBP monetary policy. This translates into better conditions for the functioning of credit and capital markets, supporting investment financing and overall economical growth. Of course, there are inactive hazard factors, specified as possible changes in energy prices or exchange rate fluctuations, but the current trend provides a solid basis for moderate optimism.
Continued here:
NBP announces success! Baseline inflation for purpose, no more costly shopping?
