The European Union is changing the rules. Poland could lose billions, the fight begins!

The European Commission has put on the table a draft European Union multi-annual budget for the period 2028–2034, thereby launching a political conflict that will specify the financial future of the Community. Proposed amount exceeding EUR 1.7 trillion, impressive, but for Poland another information is crucial. As the largest beneficiary of EU funds so far, our country can receive much little money in the fresh hand. This is simply a consequence of the dynamic economical improvement of Poland, which reduced the distance to the EU average.

Brussels' proposal is only the beginning of a long and bumpy road. Budget negotiations in the EU are known for their hard positions and complex compromises, and their completion may take up to 2 years. For the Polish government the key period in which the stakes are billion EUR for regional development, agriculture and economical transformation. The game begins with a advanced stake and its consequence will decide whether Poland will keep its leadership position in raising funds.

What precisely does the fresh budget mean for Poland?

The biggest challenge for Poland is to change the algorithm of allocation of funds within the framework of cohesion policy. So far our country, in the current financial position receiving more than EUR 75 billionHe was her main recipient. Now, due to the expanding GDP per capita, Poland can be included in a group of countries whose funds will be limited to poorer EU regions. This is simply a paradoxical effect of our economical success – the faster we pursuit the West, the little support we can expect.

According to unofficial information, cuts may be significant, which would hit investment plans for local governments and entrepreneurs. Budgetary Commissioner Peter Serafin is trying to speech the mood, ensuring that regions will inactive have a key voice in planning a improvement strategy. However, this does not change the fact that the overall pool of funds available to Poland is likely to decrease. This means an even more efficient and thoughtful spending of all euro from Brussels.

The position of the Polish government in the forthcoming negotiations will now be crucial. The fight will not only be about the largest national envelope, but besides about maintaining the principles of financing projects that support us. innovation and competitiveness of the Polish economy. This is simply a minute of trial for our diplomacy and the ability to build alliances within the European Union.

No more dozens of shows. Here comes 1 mega-fund.

One of the most revolutionary changes in the European Commission proposal is extremist Simplification of the financing structure. alternatively of a complex so far network of many separate programs and funds, Brussels proposes to make 1 major competitiveness fund. This is simply a strategical decision that aims to increase the flexibility and efficiency of spending EU money, and to make it easier for beneficiaries to scope for funds.

This integrated fund is to operate, inter alia, Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This is key information for the Polish agricultural sector. Importantly, the task envisages maintaining direct payments to farmers, which underpin their income and financial stability. Although the details of their size and the rules for granting will be subject to further arrangements, the very warrant of their maintenance is simply a signal that Brussels recognises the strategical importance of agriculture for Europe's food security.

This change means that Poland will gotta adapt its national strategies to the new, more integrated logic of the EU budget. On the 1 hand, this may simplify procedures, but on the another hand it will require a fresh approach to investment planning so that they fall within the broad priorities of the Competitiveness Fund, specified as digital transformation, green energy and innovation.

New taxes and fees. Where will the Union get the money?

The fresh budget is not only changes in spending but besides a revolution on the gross side. The European Union wants to increase its Financial autonomy and independent from conventional contributions made by associate States. To this end, the European Commission has proposed to introduce respective new, pan-European sources of backing to fund a common fund.

The list of proposals includes concrete solutions that could affect the economy throughout the Community. The main point is:

• Fee on unprocessed plastic waste and wasteto encourage a circular economy.
• Tax on the profits of large global corporationsTo guarantee that global giants pay taxes where they make income.
• Transfer of part of excise duties on tobacco products to the EU budget.

These proposals are part of a broader strategy to make the EU budget more resilient to political fluctuations in the capitals of the associate States. For Poland, this means that the burden of Community backing will depend to a lesser degree on the direct contribution from our state budget, and to a greater degree on European dans.

A two-year political battle. What happens to EU billions?

The presentation of the task by the European Commission is only a starting signal for the negotiating marathon. The final form of the budget for the years 2028-2034 requires The unanimity of all 27 associate States and the consent of the European Parliament. Experiences from the past teach that this is simply a process of highly difficult, full of behind-the-ground trade fairs, hard veto and building fragile alliances. Experts estimation that it may take up to 2 years to complete the work.

For Poland the coming months will be a time of intensive diplomatic work. The government in Warsaw will gotta convince partners in the EU that further, strong support for our country is in the interest of the full Community. The argument will be not only the request to further bridge developmental differences, but besides the strategical position of Poland and its function in ensuring safety on the east flank of the EU. Possible voltages on the Warsaw-Brussels line, especially if the positions prove hard to reconcile.

The final result of this political conflict will find the pace of Poland's improvement for the next decade. At stake are billions of euros for road construction, modernisation of railways, energy transformation, support for innovative companies and improvement of Polish countryside. It's a game of highest stakes, and we'll know its final at the earliest in late 2026 or early 2027.