The fast breakdown of Syrian amia structures and states that occurred as a consequence of the offensive of Islamists from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) by late November amazed almost everyone. The fall of the secular Assad dynasty and at the same time the triumph of an organization erstwhile linked to both the later muslim State and al-Qaeda should rise legitimate concerns alternatively of the tubal excitement of overthrowing the bloody dictator. What are the causes and consequences of Bashar al-Assad's defeat?
- The Syrian army was before the jihadist offensive in a complete mess;
- Syria Assad has become a drug-state due to US sanctions;
- Russia, Hezbollah and Iran could no longer come to Assad with help;
- a jihadist country can make immense problems for its neighbours;
- Turkey won a partial triumph and Russia fell out of the game in the region;
- Israel engages in another war;
- Europe is facing a period of fresh uncertainty.
Sanctions, poverty, weakness, drugs and corruption
The reasons for Bashar al-Assad's abrupt fall – the jihadist run lasted only 10 days – are complex. In March 2020, the last major operation led by Syrian troops ended supported by external allies against jihadist organizations controlling Idlib Province. Syrian military activities were supported by Russians, mainly from the air, and through Lebanese Hezbollah units or Shiite militias sponsored by Iran. Operation to control the full state has been detained by direct intervention of Turkey, which for respective days led intense blows to Syrian troops' positions. As a consequence of diplomatic efforts, an agreement was yet reached over the militants in Syria, which was to be guaranteed by Russia and Turkey.
The suspension of the fights lasted for almost 5 years, due to the fact that until the end of November 2024, erstwhile an operation with the code name "Resistance Against Aggression" was launched by HTS Islamists. 3 days later, the offensive actions aimed at Syrian troops and later besides in the Kurd-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) incorporated the full controlled by Turkey's National Syrian Army (SNA), which is in fact a conglomerate of many different muslim groups.
After 3 days of action, the city of Aleppo fell, and 7 days later the jihadists entered the Syrian capital, Damascus, thus ending Bashar al-Assad's rule. Why was advancement so rapid? Why didn't the army resist? Why did all cities fall without a fight? These are questions that many analysts and close observers of the Syrian conflict have asked themselves. They are all the more appropriate if you callback that for almost 9 years, i.e. between 2011 and 2020, Syrian troops, despite a number of difficulties and failures, maintained any consistency and were able not only to put up organized and sometimes effective defences, but besides to recover the previously lost areas. After all, in March 2020 Assad may have been a winner. He regained control of all major cities of Syria, secured western, central and confederate provinces, partially regained control of the border with Iraq, conducted limited cooperation with Kurds and SDF, restored diplomatic relations with the countries of the region, and Syria returned final to the League of arabian States. So what didn't work? Assad may have been on his way to winning the war, but he lost the peace. We will return to the details of this issue later. But first, let us look at the situation in the Syrian army. It all comes down to money and the economical crisis.
Among the many causes of Assad’s defeat, it is right to draw attention to limiting external supporta. The Russian contingent in Syria has been importantly reduced in fresh years and consequently its possible has weakened. The invasion of Ukraine and the protracted war caused Russia has changed its priorities and has ceased to engage as seriously as in erstwhile years in Sirii. It was besides crucial to have religion in a ceasefire. Hezbollah besides restricted his presence in SyriaIn this case, almost zero. This active an escalation in the war against Israel for months, resulting in an invasion of Israel's troops into confederate Lebanon. Therefore, Hezbollah withdrew his troops to Lebanon. The death of the full Hezbollah command corps, the losses incurred and the general breakdown of the Hezbollah structures were not insignificant. He simply had no possible for real support for Damascus. Key from Assad's position is gone. Iran besides reduced its commitment to Syriaand. Iran has suffered major losses over fresh years as a consequence of its rivalry with Israel, and besides his commitment, at the expense of Syria, moved to another parts of the mediate East.
So finally, before the jihadist offensive, Assad remained fundamentally alone.. However, this would not be a large problem if the Syrian army were inactive an organized and effective force. But that was not the case.
In fresh months, the demobilization of Syrian army soldiers has been progressing. Many experienced and motivated soldiers returned to their homes, and on the front or back lines there were another units whose individual condition was never full and reached at best up to 40-50% of the mark states. They were sent to the front by a recruit whose motivation to fight was close to none. Moreover, the very fortifications on the front line were planted by practically skeletal crews who could not last the impact momentum. The defence of the Syrian army broke down after the first jihadist attack, and the full ten-day run limited itself to 2 defensive battles in which the units that intended to defy were destroyed. In fact, most of the Syrian army simply vanished into thin air and either withdrew on command without entering fire contact with the opponent or deserted. The scale of desertion was overwhelming. Syrian Army units disappeared 1 by one due to the abandoning of positions and units by private soldiers, enlisted officers or officers. The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham offensive revealed the scale of the Syrian army's decomposition and its structural weaknesses and problems in the command corps. Massive personnel problems, desertions, the failure of much of the efficient equipment and the deficiency of external assistance, so crucial in erstwhile years of war, did not give the Syrian army a chance to win in defending, and even more so to regain the initiative. There was full chaos and the retreat of the Syrian troops, which left a crucial part of the dense equipment along the way after the fuel was exhausted in the tanks.
PThe origin of all the problems that were revealed after 27 November were economical issues, poorness and the deficiency of solutions to the basic problems of Syrians. Progressive demobilization in the army was caused by a deficiency of resources to keep it. Assad besides likely believed that the ceasefire would last forever. Over the years of peace, he did not supply Syrians with prospects for rebuilding the country. Syria lacked electricity, work, and even basic goods like flour and bread. poorness was huge, and this reflected assurance in the Syrian President. Soldiers besides lost their will to fight. So what if they achieved specified crucial successes after 2015 erstwhile peace had not given them the possible of rebuilding or building life in Syria. Soldiers who remained in the structures of the Syrian army received a very low salary, which in fresh years was inactive being lowered. Food rations were besides dramatically low, and information on receiving regular allowances in the form of 2 potatoes and 1 egg was not isolated. Assad stopped caring for the pillar of his power, which was the army and safety forces. He failed his top supporters, and at the time of the trial they repaid him the same.
The causes of the economical problems identified were inactive US sanctions under the alleged Caesar Act. According to its records, any effort to cooperate with Damascus in the economical field in the form of trade or participation in the post-war reconstruction of Syria was affected by the consequences of involving states or companies active in this by US sanctions. due to this There was no external backing to rebuild the country in Syria, and economical problems due to ongoing isolation only deepened.
Because of these restrictions, Damascus decided to become a drug marketplace tycoon. The production and export of Captagon became the main origin of funding. In 2020, Captagon exports from Syria reached marketplace value of at least $3.46 billion. Syria has become an narcotic state, and the structures of the Syrian army and safety services have mostly engaged in the production and spread of drugs.
In the context to degrade the structures of the Syrian army, the forces of Islamists from HTS have utilized the last almost 5 years to make their structures and capabilities. Based on both external support, mainly Turkey and Qatar, and besides through our own resources and capabilities. Like this. Among another things, the drone program has been developed, whose applications during the last winning run were of immense importance, sometimes ending fights before they started. Against motivated, disciplined, well-trained and frequently experienced HTS fighters, the soldiers of the Syrian army stood up to be saved by the will to fight. There could only be 1 effect.
New muslim Syria
The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad does not end the war in Syria. The another parties stay in the game. Dominated by Kurds Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control most of Syria on the east shore of Euphrates. Controlled by Turkey, the Syrian National Army (SNA) It has under its control a part of northern Syria, as well as an east part of Aleppo state and a large part of Deir ez-Zor Province. At the same time as ongoing military activities led by Islamists from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and SNA against the Syrian Army and Assad, SNA besides hit the Kurds. They were very rapidly pushed out of areas on the western shore of Euphrates, and action is already being observed to master some, at least for this moment, areas on the western shore. The main goal of SNA Islamists straight supported by the Turkish army is the city of Kobane. Turkey is utilizing the current situation to complete the erstwhile actions in the Kurds. In 2019, this operation was blocked by the intervention of Russia and Assad. However, both factors have already disappeared. Assad was overthrown, the Syrian army disappeared, and Russia withdraws its contingent from Syria and no longer has any influence in that country. Simultaneously Turkey cannot accept the current situation as its full victory. The goal of overthrowing Assad was accomplished, but for power reaches HTS and its leader Joulani, who is not controlled by Ankara. The Turks would like the main winner to be SNA, which is entirely dependent on Ankara. The Jouals not only did not look at Turkey, which was ahead of Erdogan's all move. He took control of all major cities and had already established a completely dependent transitional government.
The fall of Assad and the triumph of Islamists was perceived as an existential threat by Israel. In view of the seizure by HTS of all resources abandoned by Syrian troops including intact ammunition, weapons, air and sea bases, Israeli air troops have already launched a run of intense bombings of all installations and buildings previously associated with the Syrian army for respective days to prevent jihadists from taking control of them. investigation centres, Syrian intelligence buildings, military bases, ammunition depots, airports, aircraft, helicopters, anti-aircraft systems and Syrian naval vessels were destroyed. In addition, Israeli troops entered Syria straight at Golan Hills creating a tiny buffer region to prevent jihadsytes from operating straight under Israeli control. The collapse of Assad so requires the engagement of 3rd countries and extends the scale of the escalation.
Countries neighbouring Syria specified as Lebanon, Jordan or Iraq, during the ten-day HTS campaign, made it clear that they would like to stay in power. But for various reasons they could not aid him, and the scale of interior problems of the Syrian army was so large that even external intervention could not save the old system. Now in the capitals of all these countries, they will rightly fear the consequences for the integrity of safety systems in their countries. The fresh Salafic Syria is likely to become a jihadist rationalist in the region. Building on the existing and expanded structures of armed organizations, which over time will take over the function of the state army, measures may be built to act against Syrian neighbours to extend the success and influence in these areas. Syria under the control of Sunnic fundamentalists can so become a origin of regional destabilisation.
Other the hazard is suchthat in the general chaos formed now In Syria, structures and forces will begin to talk even more radically.. With the collapse of the erstwhile strategy increased activity of the muslim State (IS) who will effort to rebuild its position in Syria. The groups declaring membership of this organization have already declared their first activity, including acts of execution aimed at minorities or deserters from the Syrian army.
Even if the fresh muslim power deals with the radicals of the IS and itself follows the declared declarations of no persecution, no spiritual freedom, and no general amnesty, there is war again in Syria after almost 5 years' break. This will destabilise the state and the region, strengthen utmost movements and origin further migratory waveswhich can scope Europe. Even if the Sunni drain is over, the exodus of the Shiite, the Allavit, or the Syrian Christians who will fear to stay in the country under the control of the Sunni jihadsites may now begin. The specified drag of armed action, which we will most likely observe, will besides lead to interior and external migration.
One HTS offensive operation thus completely changes the arrangement of forces in the mediate East. Russia is out of the game for influence in this region. Iran loses control of the situation and the alleged opposition Axis is broken. Turkey is only half successful, and Qatar wins another victory, possibly more lasting than that from more than a decade ago in Egypt. Israel engages in another war, and there is simply a re-stabilisation in the region that could besides have consequences for Europe.
Michał Nowak
