Donald Trump declares his willingness to talk to Vladimir Putin. His advisor Keith Kellogg even late utilized the magic word "reset". Many fear that Poland will be spent on Russian food. Liberal-left media know the guilty – all Polish rightist who sympathized with Trump against Harris should make public self-criticism. Only the European Union, Donald Tusk and Radosław Sikorski can defend us from the sinister alliance of Washington and Moscow. What's the truth?
Liberal order goes back
The main problem of the Polish debate on global policy is the mixing of the analytical and evaluation level. Facts commentators – e.g. that the U.S. is guided by their own interests alternatively than by "universal values" – frequently face allegations in mainstream media that they "justify evil" and gotta answer the question of whether they "like" 1 or another of Donald Trump's decisions.
This excruciating cry of despair stems from the cognitive dissonance of a immense crowd of people who profoundly believed in advancement and a liberal “rule-based order” and now see him fall before their eyes. erstwhile man departs from God, he finds various idols. Similarly, the helpless and lost must have felt Baal priests erstwhile his temple was destroyed at Jehu's command to worship the actual God, and their deity did not respond (2 Kings 10:18-27).
But that agenda didn't start yesterday. For years it has been known that the global hegemony of the United States is weakening, the transfer of the dominance of democratic-liberal axiology outside the Western planet has failed, and in America itself there is simply a increasing conviction of the request to reduce commitments towards abroad, including Europe. It's not a substance of eccentric Donald Trump's whims, it's a permanent social change in the US, just like Republican voters like Democrats. America returns to a tradition known from its history, another than isolationism or liberal internationalism – pragmatic nationalism in the spirit of Theodore Roosevelt, to which Kellogg referred.
Poland was mostly the beneficiary of this "single-polar moment" of the American power after the end of the Cold War. The last 35 years for us have been gaining wealth and regaining independency – weakened but more lasting than anything our ancestors had over the past 4th of a millennium. On the another hand, it is besides a time of spiritual crisis and the flushing out of the life-giving juices of Christianity. We are no uncertainty entering a fresh era and we should be clear – no substance how we put our accents in the evaluation of the period after 1989, it is not our decision that the full planet is changing. Secondly, even if we consider that the condition has been long-profitable for us, it does not consequence that it will always be profitable for us.
Trump's actions should not be a shock
The basic facts stay in line with what I have presented in an article for PCh24 on the day of the inauguration of the fresh American leader – Trump wants to end the war quickly, it is easier for the Ukrainians to influence him than for the Russians, but he will request to convince both sides. I pointed out that an crucial origin would be the "internal situation in Ukraine, where late presidential elections should take place, Zelenski's popularity declined, and the disappointing result of the war could consequence in outbreaks of social frustration". I stressed that "Trump will be guided by the US interest, which may be different from Polish". I wrote that it was excluded that troops were sent to Ukraine by the U.S., and possible by France and Britain. Finally, I warned that there might be force for Poland to send soldiers, which should be resisted.
The primary direction of Donald Trump's actions is not a surprise, though the pace and disinvolvement with which he joined them is striking. There is simply a large difference between the first and second word – now the people pointed out by Trump to key positions are much more loyal to him and stick to the designated direction. The new-old president of the United States is ready to demonstrably strike Zelenski to put force on him and tempt Russia with an agreement wider than just Ukraine. For now, Washington and Moscow have rapidly decided to normalize diplomatic relations. The U.S. clearly wants to attract Russia to the negotiating table and hence gestures of the UN vote against Moscow's condemnation or proposition of Russia's possible return to G7. In a layer of hard facts, not gestures, acceptance of Ukraine's failure of territories occupied by Russia and deficiency of prospects of entering NATO for Kiev are not large concessions on the part of Washington, but alternatively saying loudly what everyone knew. The question is whether this and symbolic designation of its position as a global power will satisfy Russia – after all, besides on 23 February 2022. Ukraine did not control Crimea, Donbas and Lugansk and did not have real prospects of entering NATO.
The long shadow of Stalin and Roosevelt
The American-Russian talks about the future of Central and east Europe origin understandable concern for Poles. The Yalta conference profoundly penetrated our social awareness as a symbol of Churchill's failure to meet allied obligations and naivety towards Moscow (President Franklin D. Roosevelt). The Americans will surely want to reduce military engagement in Europe in the long term. It is crucial to abandon the illusion, which many cling to on the Polish right, that 1 day Trump will come out and announce that he saw through his eyes, and from now on Putin is his main enemy. We must make our own defence capabilities, support allies by treating them as desirable but uncertain. At the same time, we should not be hysterical. Russia was incapable to occupy anything for 3 years of the war beyond the part of east Ukraine.
We must besides keep as far distant from the authority of irresponsible believers that they can calmly focus on genderism and akin nonsense, due to the fact that in case of this, “souls will defend us”. The current Minister of Education Barbara Nowacka not only wants to indoctrinate our children and make it hard for them to establish a normal, happy family, but inactive late she proposed a extremist simplification in military spending to 1% of GDP, erstwhile safety would supply us with... entry into the euro area.
On the another hand, we besides see that the Americans are not all the same as what happens to Ukraine – they want to have a unchangeable peace there and be able to focus on another areas. It's not like they're putting the Kiev Russia on a platter. Military and intelligence assistance to Kiev was restored after respective days of negotiations erstwhile Zelenski accepted Trump's terms. Russia will most likely propose the US to retreat troops from our region, in the spirit of the December 2021 proposal. They can offer Washington a waiver in the mediate East instead. It is clear that Israel's interests are more crucial to the US than Ukraine or Poland. However, erstwhile we decision from general to detail, we cannot see a simple agreement that is acceptable to the US, Israel and Russia at the same time. Tel Aviv will alternatively want to weaken Iran's military capabilities more, not agree to a fresh atomic agreement with Tehran (similar to Obama's 2016 deal), nor will the interior situation in Israel favour it. Russia does not peculiarly want Iranian natural materials to be usually available (as a consequence of the hypothetical abolition of sanctions in exchange for the simplification of Iran's atomic programme) and can compete with Russian – and Israel neither. Iran's threshold power, and so it is. Theoretically, Russia could accept any impact on Iran on the second leg. It just doesn't seem like Israel needs Moscow's approval, if that's what it takes. Of course, this does not mean that there will be no agreement on the basis of the mediate East policy – but there is no breakthrough on the horizon that could justify a extremist change.
It is besides doubtful that Russia wants to quit its long-term strategical partnership with China. For years, she built her position in the Global South just on anti-Americanism. Moscow is aware that Presidents are coming and going in Washington. The Communist organization of China will never be a threat to Putin's power, and the Americans can easy return – in the Kremlin's perception, not entirely without foundation – to rinsing the Russian power strategy and supporting the liberal opposition. Russia can effort to lavender, it can contain with Americans ad hoc agreements on circumstantial matters. However, the large reversal of alliances and the "returned Nixon" seem unlikely.
Nixon and Kissinger have exploited the real conflict between Moscow and Beijing for years. There isn't 1 today. There is besides no another common threat to the US and Russia, which could be the basis for a serious approximation of these countries. presently the Ukrainians agreed in explanation to ceasefire without preliminaries and will most likely effort to show to Trump and the American public – just as Macron wisely told them – that they want peace and Putin is liable for his lack.
Let's halt anachronistic idealism and look for a fresh Napoleon
The fundamental difference between our situation and our ancestors in the face Yalta is besides that Poles present have their own state and military and control their territory. Secondly, the present Russia is weaker than the russian Stalin, although of course it is expanding its military and shifting a large part of the economy to arms production. We should take the threat from Moscow seriously, but we should not succumb to hysterical determinism either. It is not determined that Russia will effort to occupy the Baltic States, and even more so Poland – although it is not excluded. It is essential to build the power of deterrence and our defenses.
On the another hand, we must watch out for the usage of Russia by liberal-left politicians to make social fear and false communicative aimed at right-wing environments. It was the liberal-left establishment that disarmed Europe and imposed quite a few policies harmful to our spirit and our matter. Kamala Harris would have no Ukraine or Poland much more to offer than Trump – apart from good words. The trauma for Poles is not only Yalta, but besides Zaleszczyki. Let us beware of politicians who are strong in their mouths and willing to hazard the lives of the nation, and in practice they would be the first to take their feet by the waist.
Finally, we should halt idealizing alien leaders and waiting for an external savior. Even the first Napoleon treated us instrumentally – and copies are frequently worse than the original.
Casper Kita
Trump the president. And then what?
