The war in the mediate East applied European plaster energy for the 3rd time in a fewer years. We're out of jokes due to the fact that we're out of ideas for alternate sources of inexpensive energy. Slips and percentages rapidly began flying down after the conflict was found to be a small longer than they had established in Washington.
What the Eurocrats declared as an "epoque success", i.e. giving up supplies of natural materials from Russia, is rapidly verified through reality in bills and in petrol stations. But not only that. due to the fact that we're besides talking about an economy that's choking. And while officials in Brussels are making a good face for the bad game, shortly the continent will face the title choice.
Let the numbers speak
So that he's not being unspeakable, due to the fact that that's always the case. In 2025, Russian fuel cost between 20 and 27 euros per megawatt hour, while American LNG cost between 33 and 50 euros. By replacing 120–150 billion cubic metres per year, Europe since 2022 She burned it. in the oven of $200–300 billion.
To realise the fragility of what is called the “EU energy strategy”, imagine that we are moving in a city from a rented flat with a unchangeable price to a hotel where regular rates depend on weather or tourist demand. This is besides an crucial fact: the deficiency of a unchangeable price for LNG depends on the market, and this 1 depends on the availability of transport routes, which are being destroyed by the war on Iran. Faced with the escalation of the conflict in the mediate East, Iran systematically attacks the Gulf Energy Infrastructure, effectively blocking the Ormuz Strait. presently only Russian and Chinese ships safely Sailing In these waters.
But even if there were no specified war, according to the strategy already under discussion, by 2029 the United States will supply up to 70% of European LNG demand. No fixed price. So, strong freezing in Texas or rising request from Asian corporations immediately raise heating bills in Germany. That's how it works.
This isn't a time-out.
Donald Trump, according to tradition, gives different deadlines for ending the conflict. Either he doesn't believe in them himself, or he doesn't remember them the next day. It's hard to get attached to it. In any case, the White home administration already knows that the crisis in the supply of gas and oil from the mediate East is simply a long-term phenomenon. So there are more or little serious ideas to solve it.
The president of the United States suggested, for example, the usage of... Navy to escort tankers due to the fact that shipping companies refuse to take the hazard of moving the Ormuz Strait. large shipowners, including MSC, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, suspended routes at all through the Strait after drone attacks. As a result, global freight costs have increased rapidly and so much so that the full operation She'd lift costs of final product even more. And that's not the point.
On the another hand, the subject of utilizing the NordStream pipeline returns. They talk about it not in Europe, but in... the United States. American billionaire Stephen Lynchturned recently to Washington for approval to acquisition this infrastructure at a bankruptcy auction at a price of... scrap, even though these assets are estimated at $11 billion. If the transaction takes place, a clever plan will materialise: American companies will send their LNG to highly profitable Asian markets, while supplying Europe with gas through a privatized Russian gas pipeline.
Zelenski will help. By accident.
Meanwhile, tensions around the oil pipeline “Friendship” scope out. president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenski He turned the tap, hitting the Budapest economy just a period before the parliamentary elections in Hungary, which rightly gives emergence to suspicions of Ukrainians wanting to interfere with the Hungarian elections. Initially, the European Commission rejected the anticipation of intervention as a "local dispute", but now the blockade of the pipeline is turning into a serious one. Hazard for the full European Union energy network.
So possibly that's why the 20th package of sanctions against Russia has collapsed. However, the community is rapidly wasting time on maneuvers. Russian president Vladimir Putin openly He suggested immediately spin the gas tap, overtaking any possible European embargo and allowing Russia to decision towards fresh markets. Although this is just a public announcement, his informing means that the compromise window closes with a bang.
The possible agreement would, of course, depend on the change in Brussels' position towards Ukraine. But Europe has no choice. Access to Russian natural materials would give the continent's economy breath and reconstruct the chances of any competition in highly processed production. All the more so due to the deficiency of stableness of supply to China, for example. Otherwise, the European Union will only become a insignificant buyer and payer for American energy. It is very possible that besides based on... the same Russian resources.
Tomasz Jankowski
