Below we present, in our opinion, a very nonsubjective analysis after the incidental with drones over Poland – strana.ua portal. It stands out against the background of Polish hysteria and shag. Here's the text:
19 Russian drones flew into the Polish airspace, 4 of which were shot down by NATO forces and the remainder hit the fields. Drones flew from both Ukraine and Belarus. It was besides reported that a single bullet was found. Poland has already declared that the drones were Russian. Which precisely are not indicated, but in the published photos you can't see attacking UAVs, but drones calling Gerber.
It is not yet known what another modifications were active in the raid – and whether there were assault drones among them. At least no 1 has yet shown signs of massive explosions caused by the detonation of the warhead of the same Shahed. About the consequences that were on the photograph – a home with a broken roof, which is more like the fall of debris from a collapsed device or bullet that hit it. Russia has already officially denied that its drones flew into Poland on purpose. She besides invited Warsaw to open bilateral negotiations on the incident.
What are the versions of what happened?
- Ukraine, Poland and the European Union called it Russia's deliberate actions, as well as aggression and provocation. Warsaw called on the Russian ambassador and besides initiated consultations on the substance within NATO.
The Secretary-General of the Alliance has already stated that the block has fulfilled its commitments to neutralise the air threat (the drones were shot down, among others, by NATO aviation). At the same time, he refused to explicitly call these actions intentional or accidental, nor did he say anything about whether Russia would be given a military response.
Incidentally, nobody in the planet calls for specified a reaction – but Ukraine, which already invited the West to start shooting down Russian targets over Ukraine's territory. But so far, NATO has not expressed specified plans.
Reuters, citing sources, writes that NATO does not consider the incidental to be a direct attack on the alliance's territory. The Lithuanian authorities spoke in a akin tone.
- Another version was named by Belarus, from whose territory drones besides flew into Poland. According to Belarusian data, there was a navigational mistake caused by electronic combat.
Minsk reported that drones were pushed off course by radio interference from both Ukraine and another countries, resulting in inadvertently violating Polish airspace. They besides flew to Belarus, where they were shot down. Belarusians say they warned Poles about moving targets towards their border. Poland confirmed that.
The version that Russian drones flew into Poland by accident, slipping off the way under the influence of Ukrainian electronic combat systems, besides promotes Russian public opinion. But in fact it is unrealistic to find which of these 2 versions is correct. Technically, both are possible.
However, the fact that rather a large number of drones flew to Poland is recalled against the version of electronic combat. But on the another hand, present a massive attack on Western regions was carried out. Ukraine bordering Poland with tens, and possibly hundreds of drones (a full of more than 400 were launched in Ukraine, as we will tell you below). Of course, 1 way or another, they were utilized for electronic combat. And theoretically, 2 twelve drones could deviate from the way and fly to Poland.
In support of the version about why the Russian Federation could strike with premeditation, in the West and in Ukraine the following motives are most frequently mentioned: an effort to "sand" the defence of Poland, to conduct a reconnaissance of the site, or to "change" the reaction of Warsaw and NATO in violation of airspace. However, so far the situation has been more exploited by opponents of the Russian Federation, alternatively than Moscow (which mostly neutrally comments on the subject and even invited Warsaw to consult) – which does not favour the version of the deliberate launch of drones on Poland.
What are the consequences?
It is already known that the Western "party of war" will most likely effort to usage the situation with the drone attack to solve its most crucial task at the moment: the return of US president Donald Trump to the war way with the Russian Federation.
Let us remind, according to media reports, during a gathering in Alaska Vladimir Putin offered Trump a compromise plan for the end of the war, according to which the president of the Russian Federation adjusts his territorial demands and agrees to the ceasefire in the event of the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from all Donbass, thereby removing the condition of the withdrawal of Ukraine's Armed Forces from the full territory of the Zaporosian and Khersonian regions. In addition, Putin agreed to any safety guarantees for Ukraine.
Most sources indicate Trump mostly approved this plan. However, it has already been rejected by the president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenski and Europe. And now, based on this version, Putin expects Trump to do his occupation and put dense force on Kiev and Europeans to encourage them to accept the terms agreed in Alaska to end the war.
It is this script that the Ukrainian authorities and their European partners, as well as the American "hawks", now see as a major threat to themselves. And that's why they're trying to prevent it.
And in this direction, there are today's statements about the attack of drones on Poland, as well as constant appeals to Trump to tighten sanctions against the Russian Federation or to support the thought of sending European troops to Ukraine after the end of the war. Their task is to get Trump to decision towards a frontal confrontation with the Russian Federation and to nullify its ascetic agreements with Putin.
However, it is not yet clear what choice the president of the United States will make (presses on Moscow or Kiev). due to the fact that the consequence of the "zeroing of Alaska" can be even closer approximation of Russia and China on anti-American grounds. The fresh summit of SzOW shows that this is rather real. Moreover, addressing the Russian drone attack on Poland is rather dangerous for NATO itself, as it raises the question of the Alliance's consequence to it. And the second is not ready for a direct start with the Russian Federation right now.
The United States itself has been commenting almost all day. Only the U.S. Ambassador to NATO said a general conviction that "The United States will defend its allies", and Trump will talk to the Polish President.
Trump started reacting last night. "What is it about Russia's invasion of Polish airspace by drones? We came!” he wrote on his social network. The speech of the entry suggests that the president of the United States does not like what happened. But there are no more detailed comments from Trump.
The slow reaction of the key NATO state (block aviation, let us remind, present for the first time in past shot down Russian targets over the territory of the associate State of the Alliance) can be explained by the fact that the White home understands that drastic action can now block a already hard peace process or even lead to a sharp escalation of relations between the United States and Russia with the hazard of direct military clash between them. Furthermore, as stated above, the premeditation of the drone attack on Poland is questionable.
But the force on Trump to take the toughest stand against the Russian Federation continues. Including the American Republican Party.
However, the effect of "reverse attraction" cannot be excluded – erstwhile the situation with drones in Poland intensifies calls for peace (Orbán already said in this spirit) or distances himself as much as possible from the war in Ukraine, so as not to put Europe in the face of the threat of a planet war between NATO and Russia, which could lead to incidents specified as drone flights to Poland.
The key question is, however, what position Trump will take as a consequence of what happened. The course of the war in Ukraine depends on it.
Behind: strana.ua
Photo by president of Poland ("X")
