American soldiers in Iskandariya, about 50 kilometres south of Baghdad, Iraq, February 10, 2004 © Lynsey Addario/Getty Images Reportage
Shock and Horror – that's what the US operation against Iraq in spring 2003. In retrospect, it marked a turning point. The fast defeat of the Baas government and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein created the impression that the United States had the ability to transform full regions at its own discretion.
The reality turned out to be different.
The war did indeed bring change, but not as the architects predicted.
The old order in the mediate East has broken down, replaced not by stability, but by a string of crises that required tremendous resources, with limited success.
The blow aimed at America's global reputation proved permanent.
At the end of winter 2026, the United States and Israel began operations "Epic Fury" against Iran.
In a sense, the emergence of Iran as the main opponent of both countries is simply a direct consequence of the Iraqi run 2 decades ago.
It is unclear whether today’s attackers will be able to accomplish fast and decisive results. Iran is the most serious opponent the United States has faced straight in many decades.
Even if military success is rapid, the balance of power will not favour Iran, and even if post-war chaos in Iraq is avoided, avoiding interior occupation, wider consequences are likely to prove disappointing.
Israel's determination to exploit an exceptional coincidence is the direct engine of the current escalation.
From a Western Jerusalem perspective, this is the minute to safe a dominant regional position with Washington's support.
This imagination establishes a regional order centered around Israel, to which others must adapt, whether voluntarily or not.
U.S. president Donald Trump and ideologists shaping his mediate East policy, many of whom are besides relatives and business partners, have their own calculations.
The Israeli military advantage, combined with the deepening trade ties between Israel and the Persian Gulf monarchs, would let the United States to focus economical benefits primarily on itself.
The main geo-economic and logistical projects of interest to China, Russia and India would become dependent on American supervision.
Washington would grow its control of key markets, especially in natural materials and military-technical cooperation.
At the same time, the alleged ineffectiveness of groups formed without US participation, notably BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, would be revealed.
The motive is clear. The issue remains feasibility.
The war in Iraq besides began with regional restructuring slogans in the name of security, soaked in unquestionably commercial interests – just remind Dick Cheney and Halliburton.
However, the main justification was ideological: the export of democracy.
Trump and his surroundings pushed ideology into the background, placing emphasis on material benefits.
The earlier approach failed not only due to the fact that democratic transformation proved illusory, but besides due to the fact that prolonged instability prevented the desired benefits.
The new, transactional beginning model may seem more pragmatic, but carries its own risk.
An external coercion, formulated only in commercial terms, can provoke strong ideological opposition, awakening forces united precisely by rejecting the imposed order.
Trump started a major military operation without Congress' approval, against social sentiments and with a possible of real losses.
He needs a triumph to reverse adverse interior trends.
If successful, the White home may conclude that past and even God are on his side, encouraging greater assertiveness in the country and abroad.
Otherwise, there may be escalation, as aggression will become a substitute for results.
Either way, the mediate East is entering another phase of turbulence, the consequences of which will radiate far beyond the region.
And this, for everyone involved, is no good.
This article was originally published in "Comprehensant", and the translation and editing was carried out by the RT team.
Translated by Google Translator
source:https://www.rt.com/news/633391-phyodor-lukyanov-iran-us/
