Futures Rise To New Record High As Musk Trade Sends Tesla Soaring

Equity futures are at fresh record highs, erasing a modest dip earlier in the session when a probe found that Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws in China in a 2020 deal. That killed the mood at the start of a big week, with the Fed expected to make the first of a series of rate cuts, however the mood was promptly lifted again just after 6am ET when Elon Musk bought $1BN in TSLA stock sending the market cap soaring by over $100BN and lifting stocks to new all time highs. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were higher by 0.2%. In premarket trading, Nvidia shares fell as much as 2.9% after China said it violated antitrust regulations after its acquisition of Mellanox. The surprise announcement came as US and Chinese officials headed into a second day of wide-ranging negotiations in Madrid over tariffs. Mag7 names are mixed with AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG up 90bp-108bp; TSLA soared 8% after Musk purchased $1bn of stock, his first open market purchase since February 2020. European stocks advanced in a rally led by luxury shares. US / China trade talks enter a second day today. Commodities are mixed with Energy up and Ags / Metals down. Today’s macro data focus is Empire Mfg ahead of tomorrow’s Retail Sales and Weds’ Fed meeting.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are higher: Tesla (TSLA) surges 7% after Elon Musk purchased about $1 billion worth of Tesla shares on Sept. 12, according to a filing with the US Securities & Exchange Commission. Nvidia (NVDA) slips 1.6% after China ruled that the company violated anti-monopoly laws with its 2020 deal to acquire Mellanox. Other peers are all green (Alphabet +1.2%, Microsoft unch, Apple +1%, Amazon +1.3%, Meta Platforms +0.2%).

• Auto and industrial chipmakers such as Texas Instruments (TXN) and ON Semiconductor (ON) slip after China launched two investigations targeting the US chip sector as trade talks between the two countries went on in Madrid. Texas Instruments -2%, ON Semiconductor -2%
• Corteva Inc. (CTVA) rises 1% after the WSJ reported that the company is considering separating its seed and pesticide businesses into separate companies,
• Hain Celestial (HAIN) falls 14% after the food company reported net sales for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) falls 2.8% after FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said a widely watched TV commercial by the telehealth firm earlier this year breached the agency’s regulations.
• Smurfit WestRock (SW) shares are up 3.7% after UBS initiates coverage for the packaging company with a buy rating on “significant” organic growth potential.
• VF Corp. (VFC) gains 3% after agreeing to sell the Dickies brand to brand management firm Bluestar Alliance for $600 million in cash.

Nvidia slipped 2.1% in premarket trading after Chinese regulators said that the chipmaker had violated anti-monopoly laws. Tesla rose nearly 6%. The Nvidia announcement landed as US and Chinese officials entered a second day of trade talks in Madrid, ratcheting up the pressure on Washington during sensitive negotiations.

“At this moment of the cycle, bad news just doesn’t stick,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de l’Echiquier. “We’re about to enter a cycle of rate cuts with strong EPS growth, that’s a really great cocktail.”

The Fed won’t be the only major central bank in focus. Policy decisions from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, the Bank of England on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan at week’s end will round out a packed calendar for half of the world’s 10 most-traded currencies. The key question this week is whether the Fed will push back against market wagers on a string of cuts extending into next year when officials gather on Wednesday. Traders are almost fully pricing reductions at each of the next three meetings, betting the Fed will lean toward supporting a softening job market even as inflation remains above target.

Meanwhile, options traders aren’t betting on volatility to resurface this week, even with Friday’s $5 trillion triple-witching expiration looming as well. Instead, the spotlight will also rest on upcoming employment data for hints on how fast and deep the Fed will have to cut. Options markets are pricing in a 0.78% move for the US nonfarm payrolls report Oct. 3 and 0.72% for Wednesday’s Fed rate decision.

“The week ahead for risk could be a bumpy ride, especially if the Fed deliver a message that lands hawkish,” said Michael Brown, research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “I still see the path of least resistance as leading higher, with economic and earnings growth solid, calmer tones prevailing on trade, and a looser monetary stance helping to juice things along.”

Tesla shares jumped as much as 7.3% in premarket trading. If the gains carry over into the regular trading session, the stock will return to positive territory for 2025, having recovered from a 45% decline as of early April. Musk, 54, last bought Tesla stock in the open market in February 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. He offloaded more than $20 billion of the company’s shares in 2022, the year he acquired Twitter.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up 0.4% with most sub-indexes in the green. Luxury names LVMH and Kering lift the CAC 40, up 0.9%, with French and Italian stocks outperforming peers. Sainsbury shares gained as much as 6.3% after terminating talks to sell its Argos unit, while AstraZeneca shares fell after Handelsbanken cut the stock to hold from buy. Turkish stocks, bonds and lira climb after a key court decision on the opposition party was adjourned. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Rubis shares jumped as much as 9.6% in Paris trading, to the highest since June 2024, after Bloomberg reported on Friday that CVC Capital Partners and Trafigura are said to be among potential bidders for the French fuel distributor
• Dassault Aviation gained as much as 4.2% while Saab falls as much as 4.5% after the Times of India newspaper reported the Indian Air Force has proposed buying 114 “Made in India” Rafale fighter jets
• French equities extended gains, outperforming broader European peers, as investors remained focused on the political outlook. Fitch Ratings downgraded the country’s credit rating last week
• Sainsbury shares rose as much as 6.3%, following a weekend in which the UK supermarket chain said it was in talks with Chinese e-commerce firm JD.com to sell its Argos unit, before terminating discussions a day later
• Flow Traders advanced as much as 7.4%, the most in seven months, after being upgraded by analysts at Oddo BHF as they raised their EPS estimates and said the trading platform should deliver another good quarter
• Lundbergforetagen rose as much as 3.4%, the most since April, after Swedish business daily Dagens Industri named the Swedish investment group its stock pick of the week, saying it will be a solid performer in the coming years
• AO World surged as much as 15% after the electrical retailer upgraded the mid-point of its annual profit guidance and launching its first-ever share buyback
• AstraZeneca fell as much as 3.9%, the most since Aug. 1, after Handelsbanken cut its recommendation on the drugmaker to hold from buy, noting the bank’s outlook for $76 billion in 2030 sales is lower than the company’s target of $80 billion
• Orsted fell as much as 7.6%, before paring the losses, after the Danish wind-farm developer announced the hotly-awaited terms for its DKK60 billion ($9.4 billion) rights issue
• Virbac shares dropped as much as 9.3%, the most in more than five months, after the animal health company reported a decrease in adjusted net income for the first half-year. Analysts also noted the drop in gross margin
• S4 Capital fell as much as 14%, hitting a record low, after the advertising firm’s first-half revenues fell, margins contracted and it trimmed like-for-like net revenue guidance for the full year

Earlier in the session, Asian equities extend September’s impressive performance as Chinese tech stocks continue pushing higher. The ChiNext index rallies more than 2% on CATL surge and Hang Seng Tech Index jumps more than 1%. Mainland indexes are in the green despite softer Chinese data. Kospi ekes out a modest gain after South Korea scraps capital gains tax plans on stocks. Taiex and ASX 200 indexes nurse small losses.

In rates, treasuries are mixed as US session gets under way after plying small ranges during Asia session and European morning, keeping yields within a basis point of Friday’s closing levels. Bunds and gilts outperform, with French bonds in focus after Friday’s downgrade by Fitch. US session has few calendar events Monday, ahead of Tuesday’s 20-year bond auction and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy announcement. US 10-year near 4.07% is less than 1bp higher on the day with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 2bp and 2.5bp; French bonds also outperform, unwinding losses that followed the Fitch downgrade. French bonds rise broadly in line with European peers despite Fitch downgrading the country’s credit rating.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edges lower, trading in a narrow range, while sterling outperforms, trading at the highest since July. The pound led major currencies higher against the dollar. The yen strengthens to around 147.40/USD

In commodities, oil prices nudge higher with Brent trading above $67.40 barrel. Gold steady at around $3,641/oz.

The US economic data slate includes September Empire manufacturing at 8:30am New York time. Ahead this week are August retail sales, industrial production and housing starts.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%,
• Russell 2000 mini +0.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%,
• DAX +0.3%,
• CAC 40 +0.9%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.06%
• VIX +0.4 points at 15.17
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1196.95,
• euro +0.1% at $1.1746
• WTI crude +0.3% at $62.88/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump said the Fed chair is incompetent and is hurting the housing market, while Trump added that he has three people he likes a lot for Fed Chair.
• Trump’s administration on Sunday renewed its request to an appeals court to fire Fed Governor Cook.
• Trump said on Monday he would call a national emergency and federalize Washington, D.C. after Mayor Muriel Bowser said its police would not cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. CNBC
• Treasury Secretary Bessent was reported on Friday to have interviewed 4 of the 11 Fed Chair candidates, and had interviewed BlackRock’s Rieder, who was said to have climbed the ranks of contenders for the Fed Chair role, according to Bloomberg.
• OpenAI plans to share 8% of its revenue with Microsoft (MSFT), while it is expected to gain USD 50bln from cutting the revenue share with Microsoft and partners, according to The Information. In relevant news, xAI is cutting staff by about 500 workers with the Co. laying off about a third of its data annotation team.
• Vaccine advisers for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are expected this week to consider softening or eliminating recommendations for some routine childhood immunizations — which doctors say could significantly depress vaccination rates and trigger more infectious disease outbreaks. Politico
• US companies reportedly put the brakes on hiring after Trump’s tariffs hit, with industries most exposed to the increased costs due to trade wars launching a wave of job cuts, according to FT.
• China’s economic growth falls short of expectations in Aug, including retail sales at +3.4% (vs. the Street +3.8% and down from +3.7% in Jul) and industrial production at +5.2% (vs. the Street +5.6% and down from +5.7% in Jul), sparking speculation that the gov’t could expand stimulus going forward. RTRS
• China said Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws with its 2020 acquisition of networking gear maker Mellanox. Nvidia shares fell premarket (NVDA -2% premkt). BBG
• Axios reported on Friday that many of the claims were fake regarding the massive spike in jobless claims on Thursday that heightened labor market fears and was “a result of attempted fraudulent unemployment filings in Texas.”
• South Korea’s top trade envoy, Yeo Han-koo, is heading to the United States on Monday for follow-up tariff negotiations, the trade ministry said, as the countries struggle to overcome obstacles to finalise a trade deal agreed in July. BBG
• Indian trade negotiators are scheduled to visit the U.S. this week as the two countries try to get their relationship back on track after weeks of heated rhetoric and 50% tariffs on India. WSJ
• A Russian drone entered Romania’s airspace and was tracked by its air force for nearly an hour before leaving, the country’s defense minister said on Sunday, condemning Moscow’s second breach of Nato territory within a week. FT
• Gold held near a record and MLIV expects it’ll remain attractive amid potential Fed easing, a weaker dollar, ETF inflows and central bank buying. BBG
• TSLA +6% in pre… Elon Musk has purchased about $1 billion worth of Tesla shares on Sept. 12, according to a filing with the US Securities & Exchange Commission. The purchases coincided with Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm speaking with Bloomberg News about the merits of a pay package for Musk that could be worth upwards of $1 trillion if the company achieves a series of ambitious milestones linked to market value and performance. BBG

Corporate News

• Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk purchased about $1 billion worth of the carmaker’s shares, according to a regulatory filing.
• China ruled that Nvidia Corp. violated anti-monopoly laws with a high-profile 2020 deal, ratcheting up the pressure on Washington during sensitive trade negotiations.
• Orsted A/S plans to sell new shares at a 67% discount as the offshore wind developer works to rebuild investor confidence after a bet on the US market went wrong.
• Banco Sabadell SA’s chairman called on rival BBVA SA to significantly increase its offer if it wants it to be considered, less than a week after rejecting a $18 billion takeover bid the board said was too low.
• Swiss lawmakers will on Monday vote on a second attempt to delay new rules for bank capital quality which are set to lift UBS Group AG’s capital requirements by some $3 billion.
• ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. will pay a A$240 million ($160 million) fine after admitting misconduct across its institutional and retail divisions, the culmination of a months-long investigation by the corporate watchdog into one of the country’s biggest lenders.
• Singapore’s GIC Pte is in talks to sell its stake in US landlord Yes! Communities Inc. to Brookfield Asset Management in what could be one of the biggest exits for the sovereign wealth fund in years, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

Trade/Tariffs

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US and China made good progress on technical details; Chinese counterparts have an „aggressive ask”; if there is no TikTok agreement, then it will not affect overall relations. Not willing to sacrifice national security.
• USTR Greer said they are close to resolving the TikTok issue with China. Wants a good relationship to be maintained with China.
• US President Trump posted on Truth Social that „When Foreign Companies who are building extremely complex products, machines, and various other “things,” come into the United States with massive Investments, I want them to bring their people of expertise for a period of time to teach and train our people how to make these very unique and complex products, as they phase out of our Country, and back into their land.”
• US President Trump said China is paying a lot in tariffs and talks with China in Spain are going well, while he also commented that they are still negotiating on TikTok and may let it die, but it depends on China.
• China’s Commerce Ministry said it is to immediately open an antidumping investigation into certain US analogue chips and began an anti-discrimination investigation into US measures against China in the integrated circuit sector.
• US Treasury said talks with China regarding TikTok and trade began in Madrid on Sunday, while talks will resume today.
• Wall Street executives working on the TikTok deal said President Trump will announce another operating extension this week as the last one concludes on September 17th, although this could change, while the fate of the app is tied to the US-China trade talks and China is using it for leverage, according to Fox’s Gasparino who cited sources that noted it is easier for Trump to just extend the deadline and continue with negotiations.
• US official said the Chinese delegation came into the talks in Madrid with a fundamental misunderstanding of the US’ position regarding TikTok.
• The lack of progress in US talks with China on tariffs and fentanyl is said to have reduced the chances of a Beijing summit, and it is more likely that a Trump-Xi meeting will be a lower-profile event at the APEC forum in South Korea during October, according to FT. Furthermore, it was noted that China had made a formal invitation to President Trump for a state visit to Beijing, but the White House has yet to respond amid difficulties in making headway on trade and fentanyl.
• US added 32 entities to the restricted trade list on Friday, including 23 from China, while other entities added to the list were based in countries including India, Iran, Turkey and the UAE, according to the Federal Register.
• South Korea’s Finance Ministry declined to confirm specific measures currently in discussion regarding an FX swap with the US, while it is in talks with the US to minimise any impact on the FX market from the US investment package. In relevant news, South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said US Deputy Secretary of State Landau expressed regret over the recent immigration raid on South Korean workers.
• Indian trade official said the next round of India-EU trade talks is scheduled for 6-10 October in Brussels.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed with the region somewhat cautious ahead of this week’s flurry of central bank updates and as participants digested disappointing Chinese activity data, while Japanese participants were away for a holiday. ASX 200 marginally declined amid weakness in the healthcare, mining and financial sectors, in which the latter was pressured by losses in Big 4 bank ANZ after it admitted to widespread misconduct related to incorrectly reporting bond trading data and agreed to pay AUD 240mln in penalties. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat with the Hong Kong benchmark lifted by tech strength after China announced an antidumping investigation into certain US analogue chips and began an anti-discrimination investigation into US measures against China in the integrated circuit sector, while US and Chinese officials also began talks on TikTok and trade in Madrid on Sunday. Nonetheless, the gains were limited as participants also digested disappointing activity data.

Top Asian News

• China’s stats bureau said the economic operation was generally steady in August and they are facing many uncertainties, while it was noted that the external environment is very severe and uncertainties are rising, and some firms are having difficulties in operations. NBS said China will expand domestic demand and boost consumption and promote a rebound in prices, as well as stated that employment is generally steady with jobless rates expected to ease as college graduates find jobs. It also stated that China will further stabilise the economy and stabilise employment, and that more efforts are needed to support the property sector, but expects Q3 economic operations to maintain a stable trend as macro policies gain traction.
• China MIIT aims for vehicle sales to rise around 3% Y/Y to about 32.3mln this year, while it was also reported that Hong Kong is in talks with several Chinese EV makers to establish local EV manufacturing.
• South Korea’s Foreign Minister will visit China from September 17th to 18th and will discuss plans including Chinese President Xi’s visit to South Korea in October.
• Australian Foreign Minister Wong said Australia and China will hold high-level talks in Beijing this week.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) are broadly firmer across the board, in contrast to an overall mixed session in APAC trade. Price action this morning was initially only upward, however, while benchmarks are still firmly in the green, they waned from best in tandem to the general pullback seen on the China-NVIDIA update. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only a couple of sectors residing in negative territory. Consumer Products takes the top spot, largely boosted by gains in Luxury names following the disappointing Chinese Activity Data, which has increased calls for the country to implement further fiscal stimulus. Financial Services is found in second spot; UBS (+1.3%) gains following reports via the NY Post which reported that the Co. could move to the US as it seeks to avoid new capital requirements in Switzerland.

Top European News

• ECB’s Kazimir said they must not change policy because of small deviations from the inflation target. Monetary policy must remain nimble, need to take a meeting-by-meeting approach.
• UK Chancellor Reeves plans to scrap VAT on energy to lower bills and told cabinet members that ‘all options were on the table’ for a budget giveaway to ease the cost of living, according to The Sunday Times.
• UK government announced over GBP 1.25bln of inward investment from US finance companies which will create 1,800 UK jobs, while the deal lines up GBP 20bln in trade between the two countries, including an expected GBP 7bln commitment from BlackRock (BLK) to grow in the UK.
• UK government announced over GBP 1.1bln in joint government and industry investment for the maritime sector.
• ECB’s Kocher said the rate-cutting cycle is either over or very close to the end, and the central bank can keep its interest rates steady at 2% for the time being, provided there are no major shocks, according to FT.
• Exit polls from the election in Germany’s bellwether state of North Rhine-Westphalia showed German Chancellor Merz’s Christian Democrats won with 34% of the votes, although support for the far-right AfD tripled with 16.5% of the votes, according to The Guardian.
• Italy’s Economy Minister said the government is to confirm its GDP growth estimates in the upcoming Budget plan, while he added that the Italian banking sector must consolidate to face challenges posed by giants such as Amazon and others that will compete for their market share.
• Fitch cut France’s sovereign rating from AA- to A+; Outlook Revised to Stable from Negative, and raised Portugal’s sovereign rating from A- to A: Outlook Revised to Stable from Positive, while S&P raised Spain’s sovereign rating from A to A+; Outlook Stable.
• German Economy Ministry said Germany must expand grids, renewable energies and decentralized flexibility at the same time; must maintain and expand unified and liquid energy markets. Must support hydrogen ramp-up pragmatically and cut back over-complex regulation. Fixed feed-in tariffs for new renewable energy installations will be abolished.

FX

• DXY is choppy with a negative bias and within a tight range, with weekend macro newsflow somewhat overlooked as traders zeroing in on the FOMC policy announcement due mid-week – with a 25bps cut priced in a 95% and a 50bps at 5%, and with ~70bps of cuts priced in through to year-end. Sticking with the Fed, weekend reports suggested that documents showed Fed Governor Cook declared her Atlanta property as a vacation home in documents, indicating it would not be her primary residence, which contradicts mortgage fraud allegations. DXY resides in a narrow 97.497-97.702 range.
• EUR is underpinned by mild USD weakness with no obvious reaction seen on Fitch cutting France’s sovereign rating from AA- to A+, with the outlook revised to Stable from Negative. In Germany, exit polls from the election in the bellwether state of North Rhine-Westphalia showed Chancellor Merz’s Christian Democrats won with 34% of the votes. Ahead, EUR focus could be on commentary from ECB’s Schnabel at 12:30 BST/ 07:30 ET. EUR/USD resides in a 1.1716-1.1751 range at the time of writing
• USD/JPY is subdued against the backdrop of a fragile USD this morning, whilst overnight, there was an absence of Japanese participants due to Respect for the Aged Day. Political uncertainty lingered ahead of the LDP election on October 4th – it was reported that Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi will announce on Tuesday his intention to run in the leadership race. USD/JPY remains heavy with reports this morning suggesting China ruled that NVIDIA (NVDA) violated anti-monopoly laws after concluding a prelim investigation, which ups the pressure on Washington during sensitive trade negotiations in Spain. USD/JPY trades on either side of its 21 and 50 DMAs (at 147.57 and 147.65 respectively) in a current 147.32-147.81 range.
• GBP is underpinned by the mostly positive risk tone across Europe, albeit with the FTSE 100 hampered by its domestic currency strength. Over the weekend, the UK government announced over GBP 1.25bln of inward investment from US finance companies which will create 1,800 UK jobs. On the domestic fiscal front, UK Chancellor Reeves plans to scrap VAT on energy to lower bills and told cabinet members that ‘all options were on the table’ for a budget giveaway to ease the cost of living, according to The Sunday Times.
• Antipodeans are both holding a mild upward bias amid the mostly positive risk tone in the market and USD weakness at the time of writing.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1056 vs exp. 7.1213 (Prev. 7.1019)
• Canadian PM Carney said the budget deficit will be ‘substantial’, meaning bigger than it was last year due to US tariffs, while he announced a new federal agency with CAD 13bln to build affordable housing.

Fixed Income

• USTs started the week on the backfoot but have traded with an upward bias throughout the European morning. Officials from China and the US have begun the second day of talks in Spain. A lot of the focus has been on TikTok while overnight the FT reported that the lack of progress in US talks with China on tariffs and fentanyl is said to have reduced the chances of a Beijing summit. Most recently, China’s Market regulator is continuing its antitrust investigation into NVIDIA; an update that hit the risk tone and lifted USTs back to a 113-08 high; currently in a 113-02 to 113-08 band. Focus ahead on the appointment process for Miran, who looks set to be eligible to partake in this week’s meeting, assuming the votes progress without incident.
• Bunds are in the green, by just over 15 ticks at best. While firmer, the 128.73 peak is someway shy of Friday’s 129.09 best which, in turn, is someway below last week’s 129.44 peak. Specifics a little light so far. For Germany specifically, August WPI came in at 0.7% Y/Y (prev. 0.5%), Destatis highlights that this is primarily due to higher prices for food, beverages and tobacco products. Elsewhere, exit polls from NRW in focus as Chancellor Merz’s CDU won with 34% of the vote, while support for AfD tripled to 16.5%.
• Gilts are marginally outperforming into a week packed with UK data and then the BoE on Thursday. At best, higher by 17 ticks in a 91.14 to 91.41 band. Specifics are a little light since the Gilt open. However, newsflow beforehand was focused on various investment details with the Government announcing over GBP 1.25bln of inward investment from US firms, a deal for SNRs involving Centrica and a GBP 1.1bln maritime scheme; all ahead of this week’s US state visit by President Trump. Elsewhere, The Sunday Times reports that Chancellor Reeves intends to scrap VAT on energy with all options on the table for a budget giveaway to ease the cost of living situation.

Commodities

• Crude is modestly firmer against the backdrop of a softer USD and following recent comments by US President Trump that he is willing to impose sanctions on Russia, but noted that Europe has to toughen sanctions and should stop purchasing oil from Russia. WTI currently resides in a USD 62.52-63.24/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.78-67.52/bbl range.
• Spot gold is flat despite a softer dollar ahead of this week’s central bank meetings and with the spotlight on Wednesday’s FOMC. Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,626.46-,3646.95/oz range
• Base metals trade mixed with the upside contained as participants digested the latest Chinese activity data, which fell short of expectations. China’s economy showed signs of slowing in August, with weaker retail sales, industrial production, and investment, rising unemployment, and a struggling housing market. Slowing export growth and persistent deflation added pressure on Beijing to introduce near-term stimulus measures, according to data from the NBS. 3M LME copper holds above USD 10k/t and resides in a USD 10,053.97-10,102.00/t range at the time of writing.
• EDF said it has received a strike notice for Wednesday September 17th 20:00BST to Thursday September 18th 20:00BST.
• Iraq signed a joint operation agreement with TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy LNG, according to the Iraqi PM.
• Egypt signed three new agreements for investments worth more than USD 121mln for oil and gas exploration in the Western Desert, Suez Gulf and north of Sinai.
• Ecuador’s government is withdrawing its diesel subsidy and will redirect funds to social programs.
• Thailand reportedly mulling tax on gold trades to slow the THB rally, according to Bloomberg; follows, Thai PM saying they need to urgently address the strong THB.
• Indonesia’s Mining Minister is targeting an increase in the ownership of Freeport (FCX) Indonesia by over 10%.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli PM Netanyahu said getting rid of Hamas chiefs living in Qatar would rid the main obstacle to releasing all hostages and ending the war in Gaza.
• Hamas said on Sunday it suspended talks on a prisoner swap with Israel after accusing Israel of targeting its negotiating delegation in Doha last week.
• Qatar’s PM said Israel’s attack will not lead to anything but aborting de-escalating efforts, and Israeli ‘practices’ will not stop Doha from its Gaza mediation efforts with Egypt and the US to end the war.
• Iran’s top security body warned on Sunday that EU threats to reinstate UN sanctions on Iran could jeopardise efforts to restore international monitoring of the country’s nuclear program, according to Economic Times.
• Afghan Foreign Ministry said US officials held talks in Kabul over Americans detained in Afghanistan.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia’s Kremlin says NATO is fighting Russia, that is a certainty; obvious that NATO is de facto involved in this war; has provided direct and indirect support to Kyiv.
• Chinese Commerce Ministry firmly opposes US secondary tariffs over Russian oil purchases; said will take measures to safeguard legitimate rights and interests.
• Russia’s Deputy Chair said „Allowing NATO countries to shoot down Russian drones over Ukraine means war between NATO and Russia”, via Sky News Arabia
• US President Trump said he is ready to impose major sanctions on Russia when all NATO nations have agreed and started to do the same thing, and when all NATO nations stop buying oil from Russia. Trump said NATO is placing 50%-100% tariffs on China, to be fully withdrawn after the Russia-Ukraine war ends, while he added that China has strong control, and even grip, over China and these powerful tariffs will break that grip. Trump later commented that he is willing to impose sanctions on Russia, as well as stated that Europe has to toughen sanctions and should avoid purchasing oil from Russia.
• G7 Finance Ministers discussed options to increase pressure on Russia to end its war against Ukraine and agreed to accelerate discussions to further use immobilised Russian sovereign assets to fund Ukraine, while they also agreed to explore other mechanisms that would allow further increasing financial support to Ukraine. Furthermore, they discussed a range of possible economic measures, including further sanctions and trade measures such as tariffs.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on Friday that they can confirm the Russian offensive operation on Sumy had been completely thwarted by their forces.
• Ukraine’s Defence Minister said Ukraine will need at least USD 120bln next year for defence efforts.
• Ukrainian military said Ukraine attacked Russia’s Kirishi oil refinery, while the regional governor said the refinery sustained a fire, which was put out.
• Russian troops struck control points, launch sites and storage sites for long-range drones in Ukraine, while Russian troops captured Novomykolaivka in eastern Ukraine, according to TASS. Furthermore, Russia’s Defence Ministry said early on Sunday that Russia had shot down 361 Ukrainian drones over the past day, while it also stated that Russia test-fired a Zircon hypersonic cruise missile at a target in the Barents Sea during ’Zapad’ exercises.
• Polish and allied aircraft were deployed on Saturday in a “preventive” operation in Poland’s airspace because of a threat of drone strikes in neighbouring areas of Ukraine, and the airport in Lublin was closed, while the alert lasted about two hours, according to The Guardian.
• Romania scrambled two F-16 fighter jets after a Russian drone entered Romania’s airspace on Sunday, while the drone was tracked by the Romanian air force for nearly an hour before leaving.
• Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces take control of Olhivske in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, according to Ria.

Geopolitics: Other

• US, Japan and the Philippines held joint maritime exercises in the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone in the South China Sea from Thursday to Saturday.
• Chinese military conducted ‘routine’ cruises in the South China Sea and said it will continue to defend China’s sovereignty in the South China Sea, while it also stated that the Philippines must immediately stop provoking incidents and must stop escalating tensions in the South China Sea.
• Pakistan’s Foreign Affairs Ministry said the Pakistani Deputy PM received a call from US Secretary of State Rubio and they both expressed satisfaction over a positive trajectory of US-Pakistan ties, as well as discussed recent developments.
• Venezuela said a US Navy destroyer intercepted and boarded a Venezuelan tuna vessel on Friday in waters in Venezuela’s economic zone, while its government demanded that the US stop targeting Venezuelan vessels, which it said places the security and peace of the Caribbean at risk.

US event calendar

• 8:30 am: Sep Empire Manufacturing -8.7, est. 5, prior 11.9

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Clearly this week is all about the FOMC conclusion on Wednesday and the likely continuation of the US rate cutting cycle that started exactly a year ago and got as far as one 50bps and two 25bps cuts, with the last being 9 months ago now. We’ll preview the meeting below but it’s not the only big central bank meeting this week with the Bank of Canada also meeting on Wednesday with the BoE (preview here) and Norges Bank on Thursday, and the BoJ (preview here) on Friday being the other main ones deciding on rates. Markets are pricing in an 85% probability of a Canadian cut, a 61% of a Norwegian one but minuscule probabilities of a change in Japan or the UK. By my count there are 16 global central banks deciding on rates this week with Brazil and Indonesia on Wednesday the largest of the rest, with markets expecting both to stay on hold.

Other highlights through the week are speeches from the likes of Lagarde and Schnabel from the ECB today; US retail sales, industrial production, and the NAHB index, alongside the UK employment data, Canadian CPI, the German ZEW survey and a 20yr UST auction tomorrow; US housing starts and permits, and UK inflation (preview here) on Wednesday; the US Phili Fed, jobless claims and a 10yr TIPS auction on Thursday; and Japanese CPI (preview here), German PPI and UK, French and Canadian retail sales on Friday. See the full day by day calendar of events at the end as usual.

Previewing the Fed now and markets are pricing in 26bps worth of cuts and haven’t ever gone beyond 29bps (just after payrolls 10 days ago) for this meeting. So, assuming no big surprises, this FOMC is all about the signalling via the statement, Powell’s press conference, and the SEP. In their preview note on Friday (“Fed Notes: September FOMC preview: Back (to back?) to risk management school “), our economists changed their view to 75bps worth of cuts this year, 25bps at each of the remaining meetings. This path would leave the fed funds rate at 3.5-3.75% by year end, consistent with their view of neutral. The weaker labour market data and slightly lower inflation than they anticipated has led them to this view, but they don’t expect further cuts in 2026 although the risks are on the downside, and much might depend on how the Fed leadership and board composition evolves. Markets are pricing in 141bps of cuts by next December, so significantly above our forecasts.

Our economists believe that the median dot of the updated SEP will likely show 75bps of total reductions for 2025, 25bps more than in June. However, there is likely to be differing views within the committee. On the dovish side there could be three calling for a 50bp cut and possibly one or two voting for no change. It has the potential to be the first meeting where three governors dissent since 1988, and the first with dissents on both sides since September 2019.
Powell’s discussion of the labour market is likely to sound materially different compared to the July meeting and closer to his communications at Jackson Hole, but he could still allude to some of the slowdown in job gains reflecting supply-side dynamics driven by immigration policies. His tone on inflation will likely be more dovish as although August CPI was somewhat hotter than expected the details from PPI and CPI point to a more subdued reading on core PCE later this month, likely in the 20-24bps range, according to our economists. Overall the meeting’s most important theme will be what it signals going forward.

Asian markets are starting the week mostly higher with a weak monthly data dump from China, encouraging hopes of further policy stimulus. As I check my screens, the KOSPI (+0.41%) is edging higher trading at a record high while marking its 10th straight session of gains after South Korea’s Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol indicated that the government will scrap its previous plan to raise taxes on stock investments. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng (+0.29%), the CSI (+0.82%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.22%) are hoping for fresh stimulus. The S&P/ASX 200 (-0.21%) is bucking the regional trend while Japanese markets are closed for a holiday which also means US Treasuries aren’t trading yet. US equities futures are up less than a tenth of a percentage point.

Coming back to China, retail sales expanded by a modest +3.4% y/y, falling short of analysts’ +3.8% forecast and declining from July’s +3.7% increase, signaling persistent weakness in domestic demand. Similarly, industrial output growth softened to +5.2% in August, down from +5.7% in July and reaching its lowest point since August 2024. Year-to-date fixed-asset investment saw a significant slowdown, growing by just +0.5% compared to +1.6% in the January-July period, and missing economists’ +1.5% projection. See our economists’ view of the numbers here and the implications for policy.

Recapping last week now, and equities continued to advance, largely driven by optimism surrounding interest rate cuts and strong performances from tech stocks. The S&P 500 rose +1.59% (-0.05% Friday) while the NASDAQ achieved new record highs on each of the five trading days, ending the week up +2.03% (+0.44% Friday). This performance was bolstered by Mag 7 stocks advancing +3.20% (+1.67% Friday) and a standout performance from Oracle (+25.51%; -5.09% on Friday) amidst news of a $300bn deal with OpenAI and a strong outlook for its cloud business. European equities also saw gains, with the Stoxx 600 up +1.03% (-0.09% Friday), the DAX up +0.43% (-0.02% Friday), while the CAC 40 advanced +1.96% (+0.02% Friday) as Sébastien Lecornu took over as the new prime minster and will now seek to pass a budget through a fractious parliament. Fitch downgraded France late on Friday from AA- to A+ with a stable outlook. At the same time, they upgraded Portugal to A from A-, while S&P upgraded Spain from A to A+, all with a stable outlook. The rating moves are in line with our strategists long held convergence view, but the upgrade of Spain was a welcome surprise. especially as it’s now three notches ahead of where Moody’s rate it. They are likely to be forced to play catch up soon.

On the data side, significant downward revisions of -911k to US payroll data and softer weekly initial jobless claims reinforced the view of a softer labour market, strengthening the narrative for Fed easing. On the inflation side, a softer US PPI at -0.1% mom (vs. +0.3% expected) provided reassurance regarding inflation trends which was then followed by a stronger August CPI print of +0.4% (vs. +0.3% expected), though its details pointed to a moderating impact of tariffs and the read through to PCE of the week’s data was softer than expected. On Friday, the University of Michigan 5-10yr inflation expectations came in at 3.9% (vs. 3.4% expected), but this data has long been questioned because of the extreme partisan responses, while consumer sentiment fell to 55.4 (vs. 58.0 expected). All that left curve flattening as the main theme for US Treasuries. The 2yr yield rose +4.8bps (+1.4bps Friday), after briefly hitting its lowest level in 3 years on Monday, while 10yr yields were down -0.9bps (+4.5bps Friday) to 4.07% and 30yr yields fell by -7.8bps (+2.7bps Friday).

In Europe, the ECB kept its deposit rates on hold at 2% for a second meeting in a row, with President Lagarde’s signal that policy was „in a good place” suggesting a higher bar for another rate cut. That left markets pricing only 10bps of further easing by mid-2026 (-9.0bps on the week) and contributed to a sell-off in government bonds, with 2yr bund yields +8.9bps higher (+3.2bps Friday) and 10yr yields up +5.3bps to 2.71% (+5.9bps Friday).

Oil prices experienced sizeable volatility, with Brent crude up +2.27% over the week (+0.93% Friday) amid increasing concerns over potential new Western measures targeting Russian oil as well as Israel’s strike against Hamas’ leadership in Qatar. Gold prices also surged by +1.57% (+0.25% on Friday) to a new record high of $3,643/oz, benefiting from the increasing likelihood of Fed rate cuts and its traditional role as a safe-haven asset.