Futures Rise, Dollar Tumbles Ahead Of Trump Inauguration

US equity futures are steady as traders await President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration and his first-day policy actions.
Futures contracts on the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq flirted with unchanged, but spiked shortly after 8:30 following a WSJ report that Trump will „Lay Out Trade Vision but Won’t Impose New Tariffs Yet”, which as a reminder we said is the most likely outcome in light of Scott Bessent’s last letter to investors. The cash market is closed on Monday, which means cash bond are also closed.

The dollar meanwhile dropped sharply after the WSJ report that no new tariffs would be immediately announced.

On Sunday, Trump reiterated his plans for a slew of executive actions on his first day in office. He has pledged to delay enforcement of a ban on TikTok, while seeking to boost domestic energy output by invoking emergency powers, Bloomberg News reported.

But investors are also concerned that potential tariffs and trade tensions could derail US growth while pushing up price levels. There are also worries about how any actions on immigration may affect a jobs market that has so far continued to show resilience. Trade negotiations “will keep uncertainty elevated throughout 2025,” said Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel. “Higher volatility is our base case in economic, geopolitical relationships and asset markets.”

Trump’s election victory in November sparked an immediate rally in US stocks as investors bet that potential deregulation and tax cuts could buoy corporate profits. But that advance has since stalled, as traders tempered expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate reductions. Bond yields have risen, pressuring equity valuations while reflecting persistent worries over inflation.

Concerns over US-China tensions dwindled after Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a call on Friday, discussing issues including trade, TikTok and fentanyl. Asian equities advanced on Monday, following a Friday rally in the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index. The S&P 500 rose 2.9% last week, its best week since the election.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is little changed as gains in bank shares are offset by losses in utilities and real estate. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Fagron shares rise as much as 8.4%, the most since October 2023, after the supplier of pharmaceutical materials and equipment was upgraded to buy from hold at both ING and Kepler Cheuvreux
• Belimo shares gain as much as 3.7%, the most in over a month, after the Swiss manufacturer of heating, ventilation and air conditioning equipment reported full year sales that beat estimates
• Judges Scientific shares rise as much as 2.6%, after ending last week at their lowest level since October 2022, with Jefferies analysts saying its latest update should provide some comfort following the recent weakness in the share price
• Pepco shares gain 3.8% after Sky News reported it hired advisers to address a sales slump at Poundland, its British discount retailer
• National Grid shares advance as much as 1.9% after Citi upgrades the utilities company to buy from neutral, noting that political and regulatory support is still robust heading into the RIIO-3 price control period
• Telefonica shares slip as much as 4.3% after the company appointed a new chairman over the weekend following the ejection of Jose Maria Alvarez-Pallete by the Spanish government
• PostNL shares drop as much as 7.1%, hitting their lowest level since March 2020, after the parcel and mail delivery company warned earnings will be lower than previously expected.
• Strabag shares drop as much as 2.5%, most in a month, after the Austrian contstruction company announced late Friday the death of its CEO Klemens Haselsteiner

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index tumbled amid thin liquidity conditions after this WSJ headline hit:

• *TRUMP WON’T IMPOSE NEW TARIFFS YET, WSJ CITES MEMO AS SAYING

The euro is the best performing G-10 currency, rising 0.5% against the greenback. The pound rises 0.2%.

Cash treasuries are closed, but Bunds are steady, with German 10-year yields flat at 2.54%. Gilts underperform, pushing UK 10-year borrowing costs higher by 3 bps to 4.69%.

Bitcoin is up ~5% ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration having spiked earlier in the session to a fresh record high above $109,000. The incoming US president’s debut of his own digital token had rattled crypto markets over the weekend.

In commodities, oil prices decline amid a report that Trump is poised to invoke emergency powers as part of his plan to unleash domestic energy production. Brent crude futures fall 0.5% to $80.40 a barrel. Spot gold rises $6 to $2,709/oz.