Written by Timofey Bordachev, Program manager of Valdai Club
Even where physical barriers exist, specified as in the Caucasus, historical experience taught Russians to treat them as illusory.
In this context, Central Asia has always been seen as part of Russia's enlarged strategical space.
The threats to the stableness of the region are so seen in Moscow not as distant disruptions but as direct concerns about national security.
One of the main challenges of abroad policy for Russia in the coming years will be to find how far it must go to prevent specified threats from materialising.For the first time since independency in the 1990s, Central Asia can now be seriously susceptible to destabilizing forces.
Geographically distant from conflict-affected areas of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Israel, the region enjoyed a period of comparative calm.
Only Mongolia, bordering Russia and China, is most likely more fortunate.
Central Asia has so far been mostly isolated.
However, this isolation is now under threat.Since the late 19th century, Afghanistan has been the main concern.
However, the threat seldom came from Afghan state actors.
Instead, the country served as a base for extremists attacking neighboring post-Soviet republics.
Both Russia and China have long had a individual interest in protecting the region from specified spillage, mainly for their own interior reasons.
Both powers have a large Muslim population and strong incentives to keep muslim radicalism at a distance.
This self-interest was the basis for effective cooperation and restraint in global relations.However, this comparatively unchangeable image is beginning to change.
Israel's current attitude – driven by an elite striving to keep power through a continuous military confrontation – produces domino effects far beyond its borders.
The escalation since October 2023 sparked a direct conflict between Israel and Iran.
Some Israeli circles even say that Turkey will be the next mark of the attack due to its regional ambitions.
While many arabian neighbors of Israel may want to stay distant from specified a spiral, the increase in conflict makes neutrality increasingly unbearable.This trajectory has implications not only for the mediate East but besides for the wider Euro-Asian space.
The anticipation of destabilising Iran, whether through external force or interior collapse, should concern all who value regional stability.
Iran is simply a key player in the Euro-Asian balance, and descending into chaos can transform it into a launch platform for abroad interference targeting Russia and China through Central Asia.
Russia must so prepare for all scenarios.
So far, Iran has shown resilience.
Leaders keep control and the population remains mostly patriotic.
However, dramatic changes cannot be excluded.
If Iran were to break up, a safety vacuum could exposure Central Asia to manipulation by actors who see the region not as a precedence in themselves, but as a lever against Moscow and Beijing.It is worth noting:
Central Asia is not crucial to the West in the way it is to Russia or China.
The population of the region under 90 million is overshadowed by countries like Iran or Pakistan.
Its global economical scope pales compared to Southeast Asian countries specified as Vietnam and Indonesia.
The West sees it not as a partner but as a resource base – useful if it weakens Russia and China.If Iran were to plunge into chaos, abroad actors could usage it as a place to task influence or destabilise Central Asia without having any real consequences.
For Washington, Brussels or London, the events in the region are abstract – something that can be utilized diplomatically alternatively than physically defended.Apart from external threats, there are besides interior threats.
Israel's aggressive abroad policy, erstwhile broadcast globally, creates resentment among the Muslim population.
In Central Asia, where ties to Russian culture and the russian past are strong, many citizens have a heightened sense of justice.
They're not passive observers.
The perceived injustice in the mediate East can radicalize parts of the population, making them susceptible to extremist messages.Central Asian governments have done much to avoid becoming pawns in global geopolitics.
The creation of the Central Asian 5 – a regional platform for dialog and coordination – was an crucial step.
Russia supports this initiative, recognising the importance of a local agency and regional cooperation.These countries wisely build stronger relations with key neighbours, including China and Russia, while maintaining a cautious attitude towards Turkey's neo-Osmanian ambitions.
Ankara's quest for the large Turan is treated with polite skepticism.
Its economical and military possible remains limited and Central Asian leaders realize it.Overall, the region's abroad policy is pragmatic.It seeks flexibility without prejudice to
basic commitments to strategical partners specified as Russia.
Moscow has no reason to be offended.
Yet even the best abroad policy cannot prevent these countries from being chaos outside their borders.Russia must be realistic.
It cannot – and should not – take full work for defending Central Asia.History teaches caution.
The First planet War is simply a informing of how Russia committed itself to allies for a large price, only to collect instability and fall.
Moscow should now make it clear that maintaining sovereignty in Central Asia is simply a substance for the regional governments themselves.
Russia remains a friend, neighbour and liable partner.
But he will not pledge his future for vague promises or poorly defined commitments.In a time of falling standards and increasing violent force, a sober, balanced approach is the only 1 that can guarantee both regional peace and long-term safety of Russia.
This article was first published by Vzglyad paper and was translated and edited by the RT team.and
Translated by Google Translator
source:https://www.rt.com/russia/620632-forget-middle-east-this-region-next/
