The future of any major Polish political organization has never depended as much on the results of the American elections as the future of the Law and Justice organization present depends on Trump. The possible defeat of a Republican candidate will be another of a series of powerful blows for our native right - after defeat in the elections on October 15th, failure of influence in public media, prosecution and State Treasury companies, mediocre results in European and local elections, failure of part of grants and all prosecutorial charges. Even if the organization does not fall as a consequence of it on the boards, the unfavorable consequence of the U.S. elections will make it much harder for him to conduct politics in the country. Conversely, Trump's re-win breathes fresh life and energy into a written project, which will be peculiarly crucial in 2025 erstwhile we elect Andrzej Duda's successor.
The plexus of the United Right and Trump dates back to at least 2016. The triumph of the Republican over Hilary Clinton and the preceding referendum, in which the British decided to leave the European Union, gave a fresh dimension to the success of the 2015 PiS. If not for what happened in the United States and large Britain, the first successes of the Law and Justice, like those of Orbán, could be treated as a local phenomenon of post-communist Western periphery, which, by giving power to people like Kaczyński or Fidesz, seemingly did not cope with democratic transformation as well as it may have seemed earlier.
Trump's triumph made the PiS triumph a local variant of the global phenomenon, part of an anti-liberal, right-wing populist revolution that cannot be underestimated as the problem of immature east democracies. Trump's success – although only due to the specifics of the American electoral system, which enabled him to win despite having won 2.8 million votes little than the Democratic candidate – confirmed the fresh Right's environment in the belief that he was right in his conflict with the mainstream of Western politics. Trump's presence in the White home acted as a catalyst for the course of the United Right in increasingly alt-right positions, fostered radicalisation of this camp on issues specified as migration, relations with the European Union or human rights.
Without Trump in the White House, the isolation of the regulation of the United Right among Western capitals would be almost complete. This could, though not necessarily, force the Law and Justice to make a realistic correction of course, at least in abroad policy. surely Trump's presidency, and then the hope of his return in 2024, allowed policy not to be rationalized by European allies.
The uncertain future of alt-right
One of the many rates of this year's American elections is the future alt-right, the destiny of the populist-right revolution in western democracies. If Trump loses for the second time, if the Republican organization stuck with him loses control of the home of Representatives and does not regain control of the Senate, then in conjunction with the results of elections in Poland, the triumph of the Labourers in the UK, stopping one more time the Le Pen triumph in elections to the French National Assembly by the ‘Republic Front’, this will lead to a trend indicating the weakening of right-wing populism.
Of course, the triumph of the Harris-Waltz duo will not mean a defeat of the populist reaction – as shown by the successes of the alternate to Germany in the fresh Land elections of our western neighbours. However, if Trump loses, in most key democracies, the problem of populist consequence will be as serious as the 1 that can be controlled by mainstream politics, mainly by the construction of isolated populists of the "cordon coalitions", like the 1 ruling in Poland today.
If Kamala Harris were to become president of the United States in January, many PiS activists and sympathizers would lose hope that in the close future their organization would get out of that cordon. There will be doubts as to whether the alt-right course and organization identity – even if they helped to win between 2015 and 2020 – are no more a burden for her present than an asset.
Trump's defeat will besides importantly weaken president Duda's position over the last months of his word of office and will reduce the chances of the PiS candidate winning next year's presidential election. The end of Duda's presidency would gain a full fresh political dynamic if Trump – a politician with a good relation with the current president – were on the another side of the ocean. Given Tusk's earlier critical statements about Trump, the relations of the Republican president with the coalition's regulation on October 15 may at least be tense at first. In a situation where the U.S. administration will be headed by Harris, the position aiming for the political retirement of Andrzej Duda will weaken all day the last simple of his second term.
For voters not active in organization polarization with any argument for the election of a PiS candidate next year, it could be that Trump is the head of the state of our most crucial military ally. So a politician with whom individual from the Law and Justice Office will surely get along better than Trzaskowski or Tusk. president Harris may in turn convince the same voters that it is better for individual from the coalition to win Duda on October 15.
The interests of the United Right far from Poland
Taking all this into account, the fact that the Polish right rooting for Trump is not completely irrational and is not only due to the sense of fraternity in the global cultural war against the modern liberal center and left, but besides to pragmatic political calculations, connected with interior political dynamics in Poland. The problem is that the interests of increasingly turning towards the alt-right of the United Right are radically missing the interests of Poland.
Trump's triumph is simply a large hazard for Poland in a key safety area. The best thing to say in this context about Trump's possible second word is that it will be unpredictable and possibly the top related concerns will not materialise.
Trump is simply a politician obsessed with his own image, fearing ridicule and weakness. It is possible that his policy towards Russia and Ukraine will prove to be a affirmative disappointment thanks to these features. Trump, not wanting to be remembered as individual who has let Putin win, who has allowed him to run over an ally that she has been able to defend the Biden administration, can take action amazing from the point of view of what he said about Russia and Ukraine.
Unfortunately, it's a very weak hope. All of what Trump has been saying so far, and especially the views of the Republican backgrounds in these elections, propose that the fresh Republican administration may recognise that support for Ukraine was a strategical mistake for Biden's crew, and that the conflict behind our east border should be frozen as shortly as possible – even at the expense of the actual designation of the present "territorial conquests of Russia" – and focus resources on rivalry with China. Ukraine can even usage Trump as a bargaining chip to draw Moscow distant from Beijing.
Such an end to the conflict in the east would importantly weaken our security, the more it would decision Ukraine into a Russian sphere of influence – what could happen if Kiev were yet closed the way to Western military alliances. If we add to this the unusual attitude of Trump to NATO and the US's commitments to European allies, his second word could mean for us uncertainty in a safety area that we have not experienced since our accession to the North Atlantic Alliance in 1999.
We'll gotta get along even with Trump.
Unfortunately, we have no influence on the American elections. At most, opinion leaders can appeal to Polish citizens and Polish friends to vote for the Harris-Waltz duo. At the same time, ruling politicians must not interfere in the election run and act as if they were supporting either side. Andrzej Duda gathered the right criticism for the planned gathering with Trump in Pennsylvania – which would have been read as an expression of the support of the Polish president for the Republican candidate – but it would besides be inappropriate to have a akin meeting, let us give Tuska with Kamala Harris. Although it is in the Polish national interest to win, Trump is on the contrary.
The coalition's government must prepare for the Republican win on October 15. We're going to gotta have a relation with an unpredictable and irresponsible ally like him and his crew. Trump's second word will put many challenges, dilemmas and questions before the Polish political class, which she has not had to answer so far. What if we can no longer number on the State as an automatic guarantor of our safety? How can we look for new, more European solutions in this area? How can we behave in a situation where support for Ukraine's fight is crumbling in the western capitals, headed by Washington? What to do with the fresh Trump reset with Russia this time?
Although we gotta keep our fingers crossed so that we do not gotta implement the answers to these questions, we request to think about them in the intellectual bowels of the government.
