"The era of naive globalisation is ending, and Poland will not be a naive partner in the competition of egoists in markets and fronts of wars" – stated Prime Minister at the European Forum for fresh Ideas. He announced, among another things, the preference of Polish capital for the implementation of ambitious investments and the repolonization of the economy. The falling Rafako will receive state support, and PLN 53 billion, intended for the first atomic power plant, will go to Polish companies. This would be a major change to the first PO-PSL governments, erstwhile tenders for the construction of highways were won by Chinese bush companies due to the fact that it was expected to be as inexpensive as possible.
Last year, on 1 of Tusk's eagles, he announced the organization of the Olympics and the subject died erstwhile the press conference ended, so he might forget about economical patriotism in a moment. The actions of Polish politicians do not find conviction, but the circumstances. If Kaczyński had been certain that the moral turn left would give him power, he would have had at least a fewer parades of equality on his account long ago. However, the circumstances are that Tusk may in practice become an economical patriot, even if he is now pretending.
Good country and low cost workers
After 1989, Poland consciously forgot about its powerful ambitions and alternatively of creating the rules of the game, decided to set itself up as best as possible in reality determined by others. For home use, politicians continued to flex and play patriotic sentiments, but in practice Poland has curved its tail and kindly performed what the current allies invented – even if it meant participating in the invasion of Iraq or agreeing to extraterritorial CIA prisons. The Poles themselves rapidly reconciled with their place of division, politely entering the function of European plumbers, drivers or welders, even if they had a tattooed conflict at Grunwald on their backs.
The current model of Poland's improvement can be summarized in 1 conviction – Husqvarna may be Swedish, but Poles are the best and cheapest to operate tools from Husqvarna. The function of solid blue collars took on the Vistula so well, as it provided for a long time unchangeable income growth. By the way, she blocked joining the most developed countries, but in the 1990s and 2000s no 1 thought about it seriously.
Poland's success was besides supported by a rather egalitarian education system, which is geared not to catching and grinding talents, but to mass education of middlemen. We can live for it, we deserve more, we are a nation that has given birth to Skłodowska and Copernicus. Only that investors from all over the planet threw themselves into the Vistula mill not due to any single talent, but due to millions of inexpensive and good workers who can realize the manuals of the device and ready to work from now on.
With rising incomes, however, the ambitions of society grew. The global situation besides began to require more economical independency from Poland, so that we could produce ammunition for hundreds of rocket launchers ourselves, which we intend to buy. However, further advancement is dependent on Poland moving upwards in the production chains, which requires the inflow of high-quality capital from abroad, as we will not get higher by our hair.
Accelerated advancement or economical sovereignty?
Poland is so faced with an eternal dilemma – to accelerate advancement in exchange for greater dependence on abroad capital, or to bet on economical sovereignty, the price of which may be wedged at the current level of development. no of these options is zero-one – continuing a model based on abroad direct investment does not necessarily mean reducing its own potential. The fast improvement of countless Polish subcontractors proves this. We don't gotta make our own cars, as long as we're producing specified essential components, that without them, nothing from the line will go.
That's why Tusk is going to balance. His declarations about the fresh age and economical patriotism are part of a larger puzzle. Shortly after the inauguration of Trump's second term, the president of Alphabet (Google) Sundar Pichai came to Poland, who signed letter of intent about cooperation with the Polish improvement Fund. Shortly afterwards, Microsoft Vice president Brad Smith came to Warsaw, who brought much more crucial information – the company will invest PLN 3 billion in the improvement of the regional cloud retention center.
Donald Tusk so does not intend to halt caressing abroad capital and capital in general. This proves, for example, the change in the practice of the National taxation Administration. In 2024 number of checks taxation dropped from 13,000 to 10,000, which is almost a quarter. Over half. decreased value secured property in criminal-tax cases – from PLN 2 billion in 2023 to just 790 million in 2024. If Donald Tusk intends to strengthen the Polish state in order to avoid the function of a "naked partner in the egotist competition", then he should lead to greater activity of the KAS alternatively than less.
In Poland, gigantic importance is State Treasury Companieswho service as the Nadslan oligarchs. Many turn their noses on the way of filling positions in companies controlled by the government, but mostly their existence is 1 of the biggest achievements of the civilization of Poland. They are powerful entities that can influence economical processes – defend against bankruptcy (such as Pesa bought by PZU), form good practices in the credit and bank deposits marketplace or finance selected activities and key investments.
Last year, most large state-owned companies reported terrible results. However, this is not proof of “thiefing” or making area for German interestsas the PiS and tv Republic convinces. For specified an apparent reason, 1 cannot bring to the left tens of billions of PLN per year. For example, the profit of Orlen fell from PLN 21 billion to little than PLN 1.5 billion. Out of the four biggest energy suppliers (PGE, Tauron, Enea, Energia), only Tauron recorded profit (less than PLN 800 million). Last year's failure in PGE was calculated in PLN billions, and the full consequence of 4 energy companies for the last 4th of last year was minus PLN 7.6 billion.
Such a drastic decline must be the consequence of either a crisis or changes in governance. There was no crisis, but the companies made immense write-downs of the book values of their assets to repair them. In another words, the value of any of their assets was estimated to be far besides advanced in the books, resulting in the separation of their stock exchange and accounting valuation. In the case of PGE, the book value was 3 times higher than the stock valuation. Realising the value of the assets led to the request to make write-downs that have drastically burdened the balance sheet and financial performance.
Instead of telling a catchy slogan about repolonisation, the Prime Minister should take care to strengthen those companies that are already controlled by the state. After the government took over PiS PKP Energietyki (sold previously by PO-PSL), Pekao SA, Alior Bank, Pesy and respective smaller companies (e.g. Polish Lining Railways), the sector of enterprises controlled by the government grew solidly. Half of the banking sector in Poland is in the hands of the state. It's time to start making usage of it.
What's to take over?
Financial sector companies have a peculiarly strong potential. PKO BP became the first company in Poland, whose stock exchange valuation pierced PLN 100 billion – unfortunately only for a moment. The company invested in derivatives on which between 2022 and 2024 lost nearly 10 billion Gold. It's an incredible scandal, which is amazingly quiet, and the failure has besides been noted by Alior Bank. alternatively of investing in financial instruments, surplus PKO, PZU and Pekao should be utilized to finance selected sectors and possible acquisitions. Morawiecki's government utilized PZU for this, taking through it Alior Bank and Bydgoszcz Pesa.
In what sectors could the government make acquisitions? First of all, it would be worth to push Hungarian Moll out of Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia. The PiS government sold Moll over 400 Lotus fuel stations. There is no reason to tolerate the activities of this executive company in our region. First, it would should be hampered in these 3 countries (controls, fierce competition, animosity among consumers, etc.) and then proposed to redeem local assets. On a akin rule of the time, the Russian Lukoil came from us, which did not inspire enthusiasm among Polish drivers.
In addition, Poland could nationalise 1 of the telecommunications companies. The State does not control any company in this very crucial industry. Our national champion was taken over by French Orange. In addition, German T-Mobile, owned by the Solomon Plus and Play empire, operates here. The acquisition of the Plus at the hands of the weakening Zygmunt Solorz is most likely feasible and would give you control over more than 1 5th of the telecom market.
Contrary to appearances, Poland has arguments in its hand to push at least in the region of Central and east Europe. It has not utilized them yet, and subsequent governments have shown fear, although Berlin, Paris or even Budapest have gladly utilized their economical assets to grow influence in neighbouring countries. Therefore, the announcements of a more assertive policy should be applauded. The question is whether these declarations are serious, or simply a political spin, calculated on the short-term impression of the electorate. After all, erstwhile Donald Tusk says he's gonna do something, all we can be certain is that he's talking.
