Colonel Jacques Hogard: This war is already lost

Colonel Jacques Hogard served in the French Army for 26 years, commanding, among others, units of the abroad Legion and peculiar forces. He participated in a number of operations outside France, which he then described in subsequent books, primarily on the erstwhile Yugoslavia and Kosovo. After his retirement, he took up private activities as a military analyst and military intelligence specialist.

Below we present a discussion with Colonel Hogard on the current situation related to the war in Ukraine.

War madmen will bury Europe

Ursula von der Leyen announces the militarisation of Ukraine and later the full European Union. To what degree can all these plans actually be implemented, and how can they change the situation on the front?

"The question is about "war madmen." That's what I call them personally. Ursula von der Leyen, an average German clerical with a grim reputation, suspected of active corruption and clear political-autocratic tendencies in a purely functional function as president of the European Commission, seemingly has only 1 obsession, as well as the heads of the Euro-Atlantic states: Germany Merz, British Starmer and Frenchman Macron. At no price do they want to respect the defeat of the Zelensk government in Ukraine! However, this failure is very real for neutral observers. This is, of course, the failure of the American democratic administration and the American neoconservatives. They have planned and provoked this war since 2004 – and most likely since the end of the USSR – and NATO, the armed hand of American interests and the European Union. The EU threw itself at this war, which was not its own, on the basis of full vassism towards NATO and America. The inability to admit the reality of failure through obsessive denial inevitably leads these dangerous leaders to inflame the climate of war or pre-war climate, while resorting to all lies, manipulation and provocation. However, Europe is divided, besides within the countries concerned, and there are increasingly divisions between "globalists" and "swingers". In fact, there is no European unity. National interests proceed to be and there are divisions between those who intend to impose the European Union as a higher structure than the states that make it up, and those who increasingly refuse to abandon their national identity to a bureaucratic, technocratic and autocratic creature. Moreover, the economical and financial situation of EU countries is not optimistic. Germany, which has been the EU's leader in this regard, is already facing serious difficulties, highlighted by the energy crisis and expanding submission to the United States, while the second must at the same time admit the beginnings of the fresh planet and de-dollarisation. Finally, and this is what a soldier says: if you die for your country, for your flag, you don't die for any organization, whatever it is; whether it's the UN, NATO or the EU! That is why I think that “war madmen” can be nervous, threatening, making unordered statements and even triggering incidents to spark a spark in the hope of a suicide explosion. I do not believe in militarization of Ukraine for a moment. Ukraine now has a real problem with the fast demographic decline. I besides do not believe in the militarisation of the European Union, which I believe, like NATO, will not last the end of this war, at least in its present form.

Threats missing, army – too

Can the presence of additional NATO troops on the alleged flank of the east Alliance change the arrangement of forces, scare Russia?

– To be honest, I do not think that, apart from purely symbolic attitudes, the deployment of additional troops on the east flank of the Alliance could change the balance of power in the face of what the Euroatlantic psychosa calls the "Russian threat". By the way, what kind of threat and for what countries? If the Russian threat exists and threatens Central and Western Europe, which I do not believe, then the arrangement of forces is clearly very detrimental to NATO's coalition. If we look at, for example, the French Army – which is now considered the strongest in the European bloc – then its scope of manoeuvre in terms of personnel is highly limited. It is worth noting, for example, that the guidelines given to the army by its chief, General Pierre Schill, presume the creation of a "bridgade ready to fight" (5000 men) in 2025 and a "division ready to fight" (15 000 men) from 2026 to 2027. The full number of troops is about 120,000 people (men and women, including about 40,000 civilians from the Department of Defense), but if you subtract civilian personnel and military personnel subordinate to the General Staff; support and logistical training; and specialised personnel but not fighting (interview, cybersecurity, etc.), it will already be noted that the French Army's disarmament policy, undertaken by Prime Minister Laurent Fabius in 1990 and implemented since then by all governments, both left and right, has brought its fruit. French troops, whose moral and human characteristics are nevertheless unusual, have become "bonsai" armies, and this must take into account insufficient staff, large recruitment difficulties, and notoriously insufficient equipment for materials, weapons and ammunition. Faced with a Russian army of about 1 and a half million people, recruiting between 130,000 and 150,000 military in all semi-annual campaign, equipped and supported by an efficient military-industrial system, whose possible has increased exponentially over the last 3 years, the reflection that calls for caution rapidly comes!

World War III inactive Real

Is there a real script for the outbreak of planet War III and could it be atomic war?

"The script of planet War III is unfortunately inactive possible. All the more so due to the fact that the “war madmen” I have said before are blindly striving to do so by treating it as a kind of irresponsible, thoughtless escape, the disastrous effects of which will be felt by all. It is as if these people, these alleged “leaders”, have never seen a real war, with its full string of dramas, destructions and horrors. Yet we have before us examples, just open them: Ukraine, and in peculiar Palestine talk for themselves! How can you want war? And she is clearly wanted by Zelenski, von der Leyen, Merz, Kallas, Macron, Starmer, Netanyahu and Ben Gvir? planet opinion cannot be deceived, and it knows precisely where the hawks are, the instigators of war, ‘warmongers’. Only the notable restraint of the actual powers and their active diplomacy (United States under Trump administration, Russia, China, India) defend us from slipping so far. Unfortunately, there are regular provocations from the European Commission and its subordinate governments, including the British Government. But what would NATO and the EU do next day without American support? We should be pragmatic. It is essential to put an end to these devastating wars.

Tomahawks is simply a global conflict

Would Tomahawk rockets give Ukraine an advantage?

– The fact that Ukraine owns Tomahawk rockets – or Taurus, due to the fact that it is fundamentally the same – would be a direct signal of the full commitment of the United States – or Germany – to war on Russia. The introduction of this American or German weapon, of course under the leadership and work of American or German military personnel, would so mean the world's accession to planet War III. In order to avoid specified escalation and its tragic consequences, president Trump, after many speeches and seemingly contradictory statements, late explained Zelensk in the White home that he would not get his "tomahawks".

German longings won't build power

Minister of Defence of Germany Pistorius wants to reconstruct compulsory military service. Is this the way to build Europe's military power?

Germany will always stay Germany. The United again under acquainted conditions, gradually regain the taste of their erstwhile power, nevertheless harmful it would be. It is certain that Mr Merz and Mr Pistorius dream of a German Europe. Restoring compulsory military service in Germany would be a first step towards the reconstruction of the "Wehrmacht": the intention of Chancellor Merza on this issue is very clear and clear. In my family, from Lorraine, my grandpa and father, both generals (the first veteran of 2 planet wars, the second veteran of the Second planet War), were of course delighted to see the efforts to reconcile on both sides of the Rhine, but to this day I hear how they cool down my enthusiasm in the opinion: “Cessar Germany will never surrender and will never be a friend of France.” due to the fact that I do not believe in the political Europe Brussels wants us to impose against the will of the peoples of our old nations, I do not believe in building a European military power. You don't die for the European Union, you don't die for the flag with blue stars. He dies for Homeland. On the another hand, this does not preclude cooperation on the basis of bilateral or even multilateral agreements, especially in the military-industrial sphere. But we see this very clearly on the example of Rafale fighters. This French combat aircraft, despite its very advanced quality, will not become a European combat aircraft unless the French sale their production secrets... Germans. And Germany dreams of it as part of its barely secretive task of European hegemony, so well illustrated by the SCAF. Fortunately, Dassault has a brave, competent and decisively patriotic president in the individual of Eric Trappier. France cannot be robbed this time by Germany! In short, in my humble opinion, we are inactive very far from building a European military power.

More interior threats

How ready are French society and another European societies to quit social policy and allocate funds to arms?

“The presence of a abroad community in its territory, which is totally opposed to its history, identity and culture, is threatening the French public today. This community, due to the weakness and cowardice of the French leaders since president Giscard d’Estaing, has gradually become an crucial electoral subject instrumentized by far-left parties, especially LFI. I think that French society is primarily afraid about the increasing sense of interior danger, straight linked to uncontrolled mass immigration, which is practically weekly the origin of many tragedies. I believe that first we must solve the causes of this deep existential anxiety. This is the only real threat facing France today, alongside the threat of its blurring in Euro-Atlantic, bureaucratic, national being. France must be rebuilt in all areas: industry, agriculture, wellness services, education, justice. erstwhile the French are given a clear signal that their destiny is not to fall or fade, but that actual and profound rebirth, above all moral and spiritual, lies within their reach, then I believe that French society will be ready to arm France – in all areas – accepting certain sacrifices. French youth clearly experience deep renewal. France has not yet died, provided that it remembers the promises of Baptism, as Saint John Paul II reminded her!

The winners and losers must be determined.

What peace plan would be optimal for ending the conflict in Ukraine? Who could be the neutral mediator between Russia and the West?

– In my opinion, the 2 main obstacles to the return of peace in Ukraine are, on the 1 hand, the continuation of the power of Volodymyr Zelenski. Zelenski is already the president after the end of his word and without legitimacy, but above all he is simply a completely subordinate to the war and hatred that British and Euro-Atlantic masters impose on him. On the another hand, there is the desire of the second to proceed the war, regardless of the price that will should be paid for it, both at the human level – which is already scary for Ukraine – as at the material and economical level, which is besides absolutely dramatic. It is so essential to draw up a peace plan, guaranteed by the 3 main powers of the safety Council: the United States, Russia and China. This plan should presume that – as in any war – there is simply a winner and a loser. So it is the winner who must find the basic conditions. But it is nevertheless in everyone's interest that the final treaty be just, justified and "fair." We must reread and reflect on Jacques Bainville’s most interesting work Political consequences of peace after the 1919 Treaty of Versailles.In the case of Ukraine, it is most crucial that this country can be rebuilt, despite the tremendous difficulties that await it. Free and transparent elections are a prerequisite for the establishment of new, credible and legitimate authorities. As far as the content of this treaty is concerned, I think it would be reasonable, on the basis of the right of nations to self-determination, alternatively than on the basis of the artificial borders inherited from the russian Union, to definitely recognise that the Russian-speaking regions of Donbas belong to the Russian Federation. It would besides be essential to specify a peculiar position for the city and port of Odessa and to guarantee that the fresh Ukraine will never be a associate of NATO until this organisation exists. In my opinion, the function of a neutral mediator should have been the fall of France, as this belongs to its historical heritage. Unfortunately, very quickly, her president decided to follow NATO and the EU blindly, forgetting and ignoring past lessons and the concern for France's fundamental interests. His partial participation in this tragedy disqualified him from the ability to play any function in the process of restoring peace. It seems to me that a European mediator endowed with real imagination and apparent wisdom, essential in the process of resolving this conflict, could be Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary. But I will repeat: this can only be achieved by removing Zelenski and replacing him with a pragmatic leader, and by exerting strong force on the Euro-Atlantic leaders by the president of the United States and another leading leaders of the planet to halt their efforts towards a full war.

Port Louis, 22 October 2025.

The conversation was conducted by Aleksandra Klunik-Schaller and Mateusz Piskorski