In front of us, the old Teuton concept of Realpolitik is revived. It reaches to the political thought of present completely forgotten Louis August von Rochau, who laid out the rules for her in the mid-19th century.
Their essence was to match political goals to real circumstances, to quit convictions and ideals for certain necessitys that dictate the changing arrangement of forces between the top powers. In global politics, legism, law or morality are instrumental, primarily the game of interests and their satisfaction at the expense of calculating, cynicism and ideological compromises.
Rochau didn't come up with anything fresh due to the fact that the rules of "real politics" had already been known since ancient times, and in the 19th century her masters were Metternich, Castlereagh and Bismarck. The 20th century showed, at least during planet War II, that to defeat Hitler Churchill was ready to make a pact "even with the devil". It turned out to be Stalin, and the division into 2 rival military-political blocks and fighting ideology became the basis of the Cold War order.
The sinister context of Realpolitik was born in Bismarck and Vilnius Germany erstwhile various "sins" in the form of militarism, nationalism, racism and imperialism led the Reich to a war disaster. In time it turned out that the fresh powers of the 20th inter-war era did not have a little destructive policy in respect of respect for law and global institutions (the 3rd Reich, USSR). The increase in totalitarian powers forced the cooperation of another powers based on force, not values or ideals. Otherwise, there would not have been a triumph for the anti-Hitler coalition.
After planet War II, Realpolitik supporters in the American edition were undoubtedly 2 large political realists – George F. Kennan and Henry Kissinger. Under the influence of the latter, a remarkable breakthrough occurred in the early 1970 ’ s. Together with Richard Nixon, as a national safety advisor and Secretary of State, he led to the end of the disgraceful Vietnam War, the establishment of authoritative relations with China, the rescue of Israel by arms deliveries during the Yom Kippur War, and, above all, the relaxation from the USSR, the limitation of strategical arms and arms control. This opened the way for a European safety Conference (CWB) and the improvement of inter-block cooperation, which all European countries have become beneficiaries of. Kissinger wasn't precisely a bright person. Known for his cynicism and deficiency of scruples, he was liable for many crimes (Cambodia) or victims of the coup (Chile).
Historical observations lead to the conclusion that compliance with Realpolitik rules is always controversial. They mention to the demolition of the global order, based on fixed values and habits to a reasonably comfortable life. Realpolitik stimulates the global scene, is simply a "acousser" of geopolitical changes, which have frequently led to the improvement of the foundations of a fresh order, not necessarily more just than its predecessor.
Realpolitik's return in global relations is cyclical. Thus, it is hard to realize today’s shock, caused by the naive religion of the last decades, that wicked patterns of the behaviour of the powers will never be repeated. The ignorance of history, or alternatively its explanation in a romanticist and utopian spirit, gives the effect that from all sides of the political and media scene there is simply a cry, disappointment, panic and intellectual trauma. Many politicians have lost their political and ideological busola, and experts and advisors show the helplessness, small argument and simple incompetence in analysing global relations. And all of this is the consequence of a hysterical consequence to the unexpected and for many a completely misunderstood strategy of abrupt transformation of American-Russian and transatlantic relations.
I don't know how much the American administration itself is aware of returning to Realpolitik. There is, of course, a mention to political realism, typical of Anglo-Saxon political thought and doctrine, as well as to common sense, which resembles the presumption of American pragmatism. In any case, in the US, the rulers' circles, including those related to the deep state, concluded that the power policy had to be adapted to the reality, alternatively than referring to ideological manifestos and lofty declarations of the superiority of the "free world" over the rest. Attempts to impose on all Western values failed. So it's time to accommodate, adapt to the real possibilities.
This cognitive shock stems from the misunderstanding of the fact that America, led by Donald Trump, returns to the "old" tools of creating practice, as well as the analysis of global relations (force and interests). There have been so many errors related to the perception of the global strategy in terms of post-war triumphism and optimism that it was no longer possible to proceed with the erroneous assumptions of the liberal imagination of global order. The global strategy returns to multipolarity, which is the consequence of China's emergence in power, reconstruction of Russia's power and regional powers of the alleged Global South. The policy of force makes sense if its rationality is restored, even in the form of counterweighting powers. Otherwise, the planet leads to disaster, and decision-making irrationality leads to self-inflicted actions.
Rematch of geography
For a long time, American intellectual reflection has had warnings about “the return of history”, “the return of geography” and “the end of dreams” (Robert Kagan, Robert Kaplan). The chance to implement liberal values to the Western fashion was described as a "great illusion" (John J. Mearsheimer), but the consequence to courageous diagnosis and warnings was the boot of the Atlantic elite, who thought they had a monopoly on the way of organizing the world. The most hard effect was the uniformity of thinking. Hence specified a large cognitive dissonance of political and media circles, erstwhile it turns out that there are also options for conducting policies, reversing alliances and building fresh power systems.
Although Realpolitik was treated by liberals as a “necessary evil” of past times, the relic of the Cold War era and the dictatorship of the large powers, it turns out that under certain circumstances this phenomenon is reborn with incredible momentum. This is not only due to the temperament of the American President. Objectively, the planet has found itself in a dramatic situation erstwhile major powers cannot cope with the emergence of ideological conflicts that endanger their interests and stableness of the full global system. The war in Ukraine and the loops around it are only a symptom of these processes.
Thus, the accumulation of tensions in the last decade has caused a extremist return to somewhat forgotten rules of play, based on the belief that all nation (and its state) must identify and act primarily in accordance with its interests, alternatively of pursuing moral crusades to make all mankind happy.
The victims of extremist change are primarily independent states, doomed to vassal submission, dependent on planet oligarchy and eagerly listening to the instructions of their protectors. However, erstwhile the strategy of a leader of a large group changes, all of these countries fall into a trap of confusion, perfect confusion, failure of meaning and marginalization in the “bouncing order”. But panic is not a good advisor. The only thing that remains to make the cost of this change as tiny as possible is simply a pragmatic reorientation of politics.
In Poland...
Some politicians effort to rebalance emotions and distance themselves from fresh challenges. The longer the state of distraction lasts, the little appearance of any origin in the fresh hand of force will be. And the presidential election will be won by this candidate, who will realize the essence of the shuffling and express it in clever communication with voters. There is simply a large chance to make the changes that are taking place from different points of view during pre-election debates. The explanation leading the polls of candidate Rafał Trzaskowski is false, that only the unanimity of the political scene (in Ukrainian matters preserved and harmful for many years) is best served by the Polish state.
Meanwhile, pluralism of views is besides desirable in the substance of global commitments, as it will lead to renewal of Polish political thought and safeguard the rationality of strategical choices. Debates in the electoral campaign, clashing with various "unquestionable" ideas and "revealed truths" can enrich the argumentative arsenal and overestimate the erroneous assumptions of the erstwhile strategy of submission to the American hegemon.
President Trump builds a doctrine based on contrast to the values of American liberals and a full bunch of haunted globalists. It opposes the relativisation of values, which are conventional social ties and the functionality of democracy. It defends national identity, respect for heritage and common sense rules of the game, based on the real importance of entities, not on their aspirations or wishes. Retaliating on “democrats”, it restores the rank of diplomatic language in global communication. It does not qualify political leaders, including rivals, as sinister and immoral figures. He advocates restoring respect for leadership positions. He doesn't call Putin a dictator or a criminal. For the "internationalist" propaganda and diffusion factories, this is an incredible shock. Especially due to the fact that in his eyes, Volodymyr Zelenski has no democratic legitimacy for the office of President, which is true.
Trump's squad turns the communicative upside down on the origins and course of the Ukrainian conflict. By pointing out to the authorities in Kiev the errors in the arrangement with Russia, exposes the mechanisms of provocation and manipulation, the participation of Western peculiar Services, and the incitement to war by cynical and sold stakeholders. This uncomfortable process has been called “the taking off of the mask”, which triggers “reytan” gestures of despair from different sides. However, it has a sobering effect. Indeed, many of the participants in the Euro-Atlantic "party of war" must reflect on the disastrous balance of "profits and losses", the individual work for incorrect decisions, including the death of hundreds of thousands of innocent soldiers and civilians, the blinding of hostility to Russia and the deficiency of prospects for peaceful solutions.
“The Betrayal” of America
In an effort to find a consequence to Trump's perverse “capris” (the epithets of “narcissus” and “showman”), EU politicians, despite demonstration diplomatic mobilization, exposure conceptual weakness and deficiency of any counterbalance against the US. It is already known present that the support of the war-stricken Ukraine and the Kiev government "until victory" is deprived of any rationality. The rhetoric based on America's “tragedy” or the fresh “conversation of tyrants” shows that European elites have been plunged into “a lunatic dream”. It will shortly turn out that, apart from the American imagination of ending the war in Ukraine, no 1 else has the power to do so. There are many indications that more and more European countries will start to behave in accordance with Realpolitik, joining the "ridwan" of the emperor from behind the "Big Puddle".
Neither sending peacekeepers to Ukraine without a UN mandate, nor reconfigure NATO without the United States have a chance of success. The force of societies in Germany or France will origin anti-EU and pro-Russian parties to grow stronger and the "Brexel Power" will lose its in-steer capacity. The symptoms of the crisis are evident, and irrational hostility to Russia is 1 of the last factors consolidating the blasphemous politicians.
Revisions of the existing principles of global governance will be accompanied by intellectual changes, referring to the effects of a "geopolitical coup". First of all, there will be no desire and no wish. The increasing improvement distances between Europe and the US and China will should be recognised. The European Union is not an effective geopolitical alliance, nor does it have the possible to play decisive roles. Verification requires that only Western-style democracy promotes social advancement and economical growth. Authoritarian systems are besides effective in this respect, as the Chinese example confirms. People in most countries like safety alternatively than freedom, which, due to differences in access to wealth, gives no choice and frequently remains a fiction.
Behavior of spells that states specified as Ukraine are “democracy” leads to relativisation of all values that specify this strategy (free elections, regulation of law, freedom from corruption, respect for number rights and others). It is akin with the qualification of post-communist states as part of the West. If the West is understood as a Russian "collective" approach in the form of integration structures in the military-political (NATO) and economical spheres (European Union), then, yes, we can talk about the membership of countries of different origins to Western institutions. However, if we are referring to civilization-cultural divisions between the West, the East and the South, we must be very careful in calling the Central and east European Western states. Ukraine does not belong to the West either institutionally or in civilisational terms, so specified dreams service no 1 well, and above all to the Ukrainians themselves.
Donald Trump's will against his Atlantic allies will most likely not lead to a dramatic European divorce with America. However, it will force a change of strategy, in which as crucial as safety guarantees will become profitable commercial transactions, sophisticated diplomacy on many azimuts, and the restoration of "normality" in the consultative mechanisms of powers, on the basis of their actual rank alternatively than ideological exclusivity. The desire to reconstruct Russia to global governance (though in G 7) is rather real in this sense.
Since Donald Trump himself fell victim to agential reasoning during the election for his first term, there is simply a advanced probability that the current administration will want to end with the political function being played by peculiar services, own and others. The thought of a "cognitive war" in relation to disinformation activities on the part of Russia may take on the character of a tool exposing its own spending on specified a "war" against Russia. The first decisions to suspend USID activity (United States global improvement Agency) confirm these assumptions.
We must be prepared for many another challenges facing the global community. After disappointments caused by the hegemony of 1 superpower in the post-war period, the era of polycentralization of the global strategy is coming, which means fresh claims of power in various regions. The Global South states are waiting for their turn in co-decision on the destiny of the planet, assertive in defence of the state of ownership and possible for influence (e.g. India, Brazil, Nigeria, Indonesia). The U.S. is thus trying to free itself of its existing, frequently burdensome commitments to make a fresh division of influence and responsibility.
Chances and threats
The planet is at a advanced hazard of destabilisation and uncertainty of tomorrow. The U.S. administration should so be expected to address the shortly setting of fresh rules of play, specified as atomic non-proliferation and the suppression of the arms race. Trump is aware – although many deny his cognitive abilities – that the planet of imperial rivalry can very rapidly descend into the abyss of global conflict. Therefore, in addition to the fetishization of self-interests, there will sooner or later be an appreciation of Community interests. Realpolitik can foster the construction of a modus vivendi, far from morality, but based on the logic of common survival.
For these reasons, it will be crucial to take initiatives and innovate offers from countries that have not only armed arsenals but besides intellectual possible and courage to make a peaceful imagination of the future. It is so worth to encourage joint debates and even disputes that may consequence in a fresh inter-powerful compromise. Only then can the European Union become a serious and respected associate in the "great geopolitical game" if it proposes to Trump to conclude an "agreement act" around the most crucial coexistence interests.
The Brussels notable must realize that the mission of global relations participants is simply a origin of sinister tensions leading to disaster. So it's time to disidentify the global strategies of the states and abandon the crusades of freedom. The focus on business alternatively than values can trigger a broad global dialog (plurilog) at different levels of the structure of the global system, from neighbouring relations to subregional and regional level to global level.
It is simply a fantastic chance and chance to revive the structures of the United Nations, return to reforming it and start to prosecute policies of effectiveness alternatively than victimization. In front of our eyes, the expression of order based on utopian plan of the future is exhausted. It's time to go back to solving the problems of the planet as it is here and now, not as it should be.
Poland, which has experienced various humiliations many times in history, should be active in creating fresh rules of play. First of all, respect for all identity of the state and nation in global relations must be respected. No 1 has the right, neither the US nor the European Union, to legitimize another people's rations and impose criteria on others to measure their systems or ways of organising life, including the choices of leaders. surely these demands will be hard to meet in the state of emotional instability of Polish political and intellectual elites. However, time works in favour of political realism.
Prof. Stanisław Bielen
Photo White home profile on "X" platform
Think Poland, No. 9-10 (2-9.03.2025)
